When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

 

[SwedgeAntilles]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I think a lot of Starmer's decisions are based more on what focus groups and polling are saying at the moment, then what is actually the right thing to do.

I think we posted the same thing in two different threads at almost the exact same time 😂

[aj6658]

2 hours ago, xxialac said:

On not this again...because if they re-open too much, too soon, it will lead to bad health outcomes.

And in my view having 90,000 people huddled together at Wembley stadium and on the way to Wembley Stadium by June 11 is too soon.  Not to mention that having good quality mass rapid testing by then is far from certain.

Maybe the 'taxpayer money' saving vast numbers of lives, allowing the NHS to start functioning fully again and allowing most of the economy to reopen by Summer could still represent good value for money? The argument put forward is pretty facile.

• The vaccines reduces transmission 
• Its summer which will repress numbers like last year
• The vaccine stops serious illness and deaths

Once we get to the Euros all high risk (groups 1-9_ will be double dosed. The unvaccinated population is in reality is not at risk of the virus. Even so, 90% will be vaccinated (we are currently on track to vaccinated everyone by the end of June)  

I really don't see where the risk is at that point. if we are saying that we need to maintain these rules even with a vaccine then what is the point? That is saying that life will never return back to normal 

 

 

[zahidf]

Good blog on why it's probably a non story

 

[BobWillis]

3 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

• The vaccines reduces transmission 
• Its summer which will repress numbers like last year
• The vaccine stops serious illness and deaths

Once we get to the Euros all high risk (groups 1-9_ will be double dosed. The unvaccinated population is in reality is not at risk of the virus. Even so, 90% will be vaccinated (we are currently on track to vaccinated everyone by the end of June)  

I really don't see where the risk is at that point. if we are saying that we need to maintain these rules even with a vaccine then what is the point? That is saying that life will never return back to normal 

 

 

We’re not going to know just how well the vaccines have worked unless we allow some kind of normality. Far better to do this in the summer than in the autumn and winter. 
If people don’t feel ready to attend large events until they’ve been jabbed then they can stay at home, but the rest shouldn’t suffer because of it. 

[xxialac]

2 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

• The vaccines reduces transmission 
• Its summer which will repress numbers like last year
• The vaccine stops serious illness and deaths

Once we get to the Euros all high risk (groups 1-9_ will be double dosed. The unvaccinated population is in reality is not at risk of the virus. Even so, 90% will be vaccinated (we are currently on track to vaccinated everyone by the end of June)  

I really don't see where the risk is at that point. if we are saying that we need to maintain these rules even with a vaccine then what is the point? That is saying that life will never return back to normal 

 

 

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with the need to "go back to normal".

It's just a question of timing. More will need to be vaccinated - and had the benefit of that vaccination kick in 3 weeks later - by the time of the Euros in my opinion

First week of June seems too early as cases will still be too high and we are starting from a very high caseload. This seems to be both the government and scientific community view.

[BobWillis]

2 minutes ago, xxialac said:

First week of June seems too early as cases will still be too high and we are starting from a very high caseload. This seems to be both the government and scientific community view.

Cases will still be too high? Based on what data? 

[steviewevie]

Just now, xxialac said:

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with the need to "go back to normal".

It's just a question of timing. More will need to be vaccinated - and had the benefit of that vaccination kick in 3 weeks later - by the time of the Euros in my opinion

First week of June seems too early as cases will still be too high and we are starting from a very high caseload. This seems to be both the government and scientific community view.

I think it's just too early to know, these sort of decisions will be based more on the data closer to the time. Don't think there are going to be many fixed dates in Johnson's roadmap.

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

Cases will still be too high? Based on what data? 

Feels like @xxialac is actually becoming the doomer-in-chief on here, although it’s a close run thing. 

[xxialac]

7 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Feels like @xxialac is actually becoming the doomer-in-chief on here, although it’s a close run thing. 

Nonsense. I'm very positive for society opening up pretty much fully. Probably by the end of the Summer. Especially with testing.

But it's illogical to think we're going to go from "two households able to meet outdoors in April" to "total free-for-all and 100% capacity mass events only 2 months later in June" 

Edited February 21, 2021 by xxialac

[MrBarry465]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/21/johnsons-moment-of-lockdown-truth-looms-as-announcement-on-reopening-awaited

Does seem like there is a growing sentiment, even politcally now, that the best way out of this is a very slowly phased unlocking. Partciularly with the idiotic attempt to rush things last year.

But despite such calls and unlike last summer, when it is now widely agreed ministers unlocked too far too fast, this time ministers seem determined to do the reverse.

Edited February 21, 2021 by MrBarry465

[MrBarry465]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

Nonsense. I'm very positive for society opening up pretty much fully. Probably by the end of the Summer. Especially with testing.

But it's illogical to think we're going to go from "two households able to meet outdoors in April" to "total free-for-all and 100% capacity mass events only 2 months later in June" 

I think it will just be a gradual thing and we will progessively get back up to 'normal'. But anyone who thinks that from May it will be a 'free for all' is kidding themselves.

[BobWillis]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

Nonsense. I'm very positive for society opening up pretty much fully. Probably by the end of the Summer. Especially with testing.

But it's illogical to think we're going to go from "two households able to meet outdoors in April" to "total free-for-all and 100% capacity mass events only 2 months later in June" 

It’s not illogical. The most vulnerable will be protected as of March 6th, 3 weeks after the last of groups 1-4 received their first dose. This will show up in the data about a month later, at which point things can start to move more quickly knowing that all over 50’s will also have that same level of protection by the end of April and so on and so forth. Once the first proper signs come through that the vaccine has worked in the most vulnerable it is illogical to continue going slowly and is doing more socioeconomic damage than waiting to see what you already know. 

[MrBarry465]

2 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

It’s not illogical. The most vulnerable will be protected as of March 6th, 3 weeks after the last of groups 1-4 received their first dose. This will show up in the data about a month later, at which point things can start to move more quickly knowing that all over 50’s will also have that same level of protection by the end of April and so on and so forth. Once the first proper signs come through that the vaccine has worked in the most vulnerable it is illogical to continue going slowly and is doing more socioeconomic damage than waiting to see what you already know. 

 

Lol this is totally illogical

The most 'logical' step forward now is a progressive unlocking of the economy. Rushing to get things done is idiotic.

The government also reconigse the best way of re election is now being seen as the government that 'saved the country'. They won't want any mistakes now.

Edited February 21, 2021 by MrBarry465

[burnleynotbarcelona]

Chance of socially distanced (small) indoor concerts in late June ? Asking for a friend.

[MrBarry465]

Just now, burnleynotbarcelona said:

Chance of socially distanced (small) indoor concerts in late June ? Asking for a friend.

'indoors' I'd say slim to none.

[st dan]

4 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/21/johnsons-moment-of-lockdown-truth-looms-as-announcement-on-reopening-awaited

Does seem like there is a growing sentiment, even politcally now, that the best way out of this is a very slowly phased unlocking. Partciularly with the idiotic attempt to rush things last year.

But despite such calls and unlike last summer, when it is now widely agreed ministers unlocked too far too fast, this time ministers seem determined to do the reverse.

Any comparisons to releasing from previous lockdowns are completely futile, as we now have 17m of the most vulnerable vaccinated - which we now also know are going to be very, very effective. 

If we didn’t have these vaccines then of course there would be an argument that we need to be more cautious than last time, but also worth noting that the first two months after opening up (July to Sep) both cases and deaths were extremely low. 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, burnleynotbarcelona said:

Chance of socially distanced (small) indoor concerts in late June ? Asking for a friend.

If pubs are open, be a good chance I reckon 

[BobWillis]

Just now, MrBarry465 said:

 

Lol this is totally illogical

The most 'logical' step forward now is a progressive unlocking of the economy. Rushing to get things done is idiotic.

You thinks it’s logical to wait until September just so we can make sure that over 18’s got the same level of protection as the over 80’s did in March? 😂😂 ok Barry 

[MrBarry465]

Just now, st dan said:

Any comparisons to releasing from previous lockdowns are completely futile, as we now have 17m of the most vulnerable vaccinated - which we now also know are going to be very, very effective. 

If we didn’t have these vaccines then of course there would be an argument that we need to be more cautious than last time, but also worth noting that the first two months after opening up (July to Sep) both cases and deaths were extremely low. 

The government won't rush anything now. Slow and steady wins the race.

In my view this current government, for all their fuck ups, they dont want to cock this up further.

[MrBarry465]

Just now, BobWillis said:

You thinks it’s logical to wait until September just so we can make sure that over 18’s got the same level of protection as the over 80’s did in March? 😂😂 ok Barry 

Heres a tip, why don't you go through and ready my posts.

[MrBarry465]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

If pubs are open, be a good chance I reckon 

Pubs being 'open' and 'indoor events' are not the same thing mate.

[stuartbert two hats]

41 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

• The vaccines reduces transmission 
• Its summer which will repress numbers like last year
• The vaccine stops serious illness and deaths

Once we get to the Euros all high risk (groups 1-9_ will be double dosed. The unvaccinated population is in reality is not at risk of the virus. Even so, 90% will be vaccinated (we are currently on track to vaccinated everyone by the end of June)  

I really don't see where the risk is at that point. if we are saying that we need to maintain these rules even with a vaccine then what is the point? That is saying that life will never return back to normal 

Are many people saying to maintain the rules once everyone is fully vaccinated? I thought most of the debate was over how much of the population needed to be vaccinated and how many shots?

There's definitely a point in vaccinating people.

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Pubs being 'open' and 'indoor events' are not the same thing mate.

I know that but have been treating them roughly the same.

[stuartbert two hats]

Burn-Murdoch has the best graphs 🙂