When will this shit end?

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

How on earth do you deduce that?

Because they aren't going to suddenly open everything up as normal in or approaching winter. Maybe Easter 2022 if we're being  generous 

[zahidf]

Just now, hodgey123 said:

This is another concern I have, unless the government, after being extremely cautious reopening and over the summer, then decide to throw caution to the wind and see how we get on without social distancing, with full schools, in winter (which clearly won’t happen). 

They've said every adult will be vaccinated by September.  Who's gonna want to social distance after that point?

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, hodgey123 said:

This is another concern I have, unless the government, after being extremely cautious reopening and over the summer, then decide to throw caution to the wind and see how we get on without social distancing, with full schools, in winter (which clearly won’t happen). 

Worst case scenario we'll be showing our vaccine passports for socially distanced meals and the music industry will be completely gone 

[efcfanwirral]

Just now, zahidf said:

They've said every adult will be vaccinated by September.  Who's gonna want to social distance after that point?

The only test for how well the vaccines worked is next winter, so it won't be fully normal. 

[hodgey123]

13 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm not sure what's being suggested, but statements like "cases don't matter" are flat wrong when there are still many millions not vaccinated.

I personally have not explicitly said cases don’t matter but they are the least important of the metrics imo, given a) evidence is starting to suggest vaccines do have an effect on transmission, so this will continue to exponentially increase and reduce cases, and b) there is less than 0% chance that all restrictions are going to be lifted at once in the next 2-3 months at the very least. The main concern as far as I can see regarding keeping case levels lower is to minimise the risk of new variants, but that is a potentially endless game of cat and mouse with an awful lot of potential issues anyway. 

[zahidf]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

The only test for how well the vaccines worked is next winter, so it won't be fully normal. 

Not really.  We should have enough evidence in the next few months.

[hodgey123]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

They've said every adult will be vaccinated by September.  Who's gonna want to social distance after that point?

No one will want to, but just if the government are being cautious now approaching spring/summer with the most vulnerable already vaccinated (and with 2 doses by June/July) then it doesn’t bode well for winter and schools being back (two massive drivers of transmission). 

[Fuzzy Afro]

I’m genuinely starting to feel jealous of the US approach to covid 

[zahidf]

Just now, hodgey123 said:

No one will want to, but just if the government are being cautious now approaching spring/summer with the most vulnerable already vaccinated (and with 2 doses by June/July) then it doesn’t bode well for winter and schools being back (two massive drivers of transmission). 

But people aren't going to stop household mixing over winter 'just in case'.

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

The only test for how well the vaccines worked is next winter, so it won't be fully normal. 

This is just plain wrong

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

But people aren't going to stop household mixing over winter 'just in case'.

That's not a problem - but all the fun stuff beyond that will be restricted

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

This is just plain wrong

Why? The worst times for respiratory illnesses are over winter, we're past that now and it'll barely spread over a socially distanced spring and summer. 

[hodgey123]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

But people aren't going to stop household mixing over winter 'just in case'.

I know. We aren’t talking about people will do here, but the government’s approach to what people legally can do/will be able to do. All hypothetical of course. 

[hodgey123]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

That's not a problem - but all the fun stuff beyond that will be restricted

Why? The worst times for respiratory illnesses are over winter, we're past that now and it'll barely spread over a socially distanced spring and summer. 

On the second point it is not the only test as we will start to get more data on declining deaths and the impact on transmission as we start to open up. But it will certainly be the key test, ie testing the waters as we go into winter and then assessing whether any restrictions are required to be reinstated at that point. 

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

On the second point it is not the only test as we will start to get more data on declining deaths and the impact on transmission as we start to open up. But it will certainly be the key test, ie testing the waters as we go into winter and then assessing whether any restrictions are required to be reinstated at that point. 

I think all hopes of live music this year are pretty much gone if the Mail's story is right

[ShakeyCrash]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

I think all hopes of live music this year are pretty much gone if the Mail's story is right

If they’re making a decision now on what things they can do in July then quite frankly people should be pissed off.  People are asking for a roadmap and in my opinion it’s just pointless to put dates on these things. We have just vaccinated 25% of the population, can we not just wait 3 weeks to see what that does?  Why the rush now to know what we can do in July? I am confident it will be better but by trying to plan for it now we will make it worse.

 

[hodgey123]

7 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I think all hopes of live music this year are pretty much gone if the Mail's story is right

Appears so. The only hope is those loose dates/months are exactly that - loose dates which can be brought forward when, as is perhaps expected, the vaccines translate into lower cases and deaths and there is real hard data on that. I’m relatively optimistic in that respect as with every passing week we should be able to get more data on how the vaccines are affecting these metrics in the real world. 
 

There is also the possibility that the government have now realised that the over-promising approach of 2020 was ridiculous and that it is better to under-promise and over deliver (eg vaccine rollout generally). This is an option, particularly given there are murmurs that the next vaccination phase targets are unambitious given ramped up supply and the success to date. 

[gooner1990]

On 3/23/2020 at 4:54 PM, Matt42 said:

I’ve heard that a conservative estimate is March 2021 due to the concern of a respike during next Winter.

!!!

[El Matador]

7 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

"July with social distancing" means social distancing is with us until summer 2022 surely? With maybe an August lifting perhaps, putting it back in when schools return in September ahead of winter? 

If social distancing is still enforced after the whole country has been vaccinated, we might as well throw the towel in and accept that we're living in 1984.

[zahidf]

6 hours ago, gooner1990 said:

!!!

It's Matt. I wouldn't take too much stock of that.

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, El Matador said:

If social distancing is still enforced after the whole country has been vaccinated, we might as well throw the towel in and accept that we're living in 1984.

Yup. Once there isn't a public health crisis, the govt has no business regulating how close I can get to someone. 

[zahidf]

This from the Mail is interesting 

What WAS the point of vaccine triumph if we are doomed to endless curbs?

Despite the success of the vaccine programme, which will see all vulnerable people protected against Covid-19 in a month, it seems lockdown will largely continue until July. Restaurants and churches possibly still closed. Travel impossible. Families forbidden to mingle indoors. The Treasury still borrowing billions to keep people on furlough. This is draining the health of our population and our economy. Anyone would be justified in demanding to know what the past year’s sacrifices have been for, if not to end lockdown as soon as possible. How can the Government fail to set free the country — particularly after the stellar vaccination campaign? 

[Mr.Tease]

7 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’m genuinely starting to feel jealous of the US approach to covid 

The 470,000 deaths, lack of financial support or the slow vaccine rollout?

Edited February 17, 2021 by Mr.Tease

[st dan]

If we’re going to be using case numbers as a measure before lifting lockdown then surely it’s actually counter intuitive for people to have asymptomatic / weekly testing etc? Where is the incentive in doing that if people want to get out of lockdown? 
And if people stop doing these, it could actually lead to more damage by people spreading the virus. 

[xxialac]

46 minutes ago, zahidf said:

This from the Mail is interesting 

What WAS the point of vaccine triumph if we are doomed to endless curbs?

Despite the success of the vaccine programme, which will see all vulnerable people protected against Covid-19 in a month, it seems lockdown will largely continue until July. Restaurants and churches possibly still closed. Travel impossible. Families forbidden to mingle indoors. The Treasury still borrowing billions to keep people on furlough. This is draining the health of our population and our economy. Anyone would be justified in demanding to know what the past year’s sacrifices have been for, if not to end lockdown as soon as possible. How can the Government fail to set free the country — particularly after the stellar vaccination campaign? 

The Mail spews so much agenda-filled garbage on a daily basis, it isn't an ideal source of thought leadership.

[JoeyT]

Pubs in May then.

Am I right to think rule of 6 outside is at the same time or coming in before that point?

Honestly can’t see many abiding by that sort of rule if we get a decent weather forecast over Easter weekend...