When will this shit end?

[Euphoricape]

So sorry about this..

https://www.facebook.com/13312631635/posts/10158994231111636/?sfnsn=scwspmo

 

Things are about to get a LOT worse 

Edited December 21, 2020 by Euphoricape
Rypo

[eFestivals]

33 minutes ago, fatyeti24 said:

I've posted this a couple of times in recent weeks, but it's been released now and is, apparently, in the top 20.

Do your duty.

http://borisjohnson.info/?fbclid=IwAR3tkVTySb4sk6ecgxjbdP_QbAq_Xq031UwdT1kwD7iUTx_J-tcXTAoBfic

 

worth 99p of anyone's money. 😄 

[st dan]

6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

 

We all know exactly where he is ... he sneaked out of London before the restrictions yesterday, and is living in luxury, counting his millions in his 12 acre mansion in North Yorkshire over Christmas 

Edited December 21, 2020 by st dan

[steviewevie]

41 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

My daughter had a nightmare sleep last night and I was up with her from 4.30am which means i'm currently very tired at work and in turn emotionally unstable.

Please can we have some good news 🙏

err...it's nearly christmas?

[zahidf]

A top Russian scientist with close links to Edinburgh University who was 'working on a Covid-19 vaccine' has been found dead in suspicious circumstances in St Petersburg.

Biologist Alexander 'Sasha' Kagansky, 45, best known for his work on fighting cancer, was reported to have fallen in his underwear from a 14th floor window of a high rise residential building.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9074747/Russian-scientist-falls-death-window-stabbed-latest-mysterious-death.html

[Spindles]

2 hours ago, st dan said:

Neil has it spot on here - not saying the new strain has been fabricated, but it’s certainly been hyped up to suit their Tier 4 agenda. You can imagine them plotting this in their Tory HQ thinking they have nailed it - we made it seem like there was no other option but to cancel Christmas. 
Pretty sure when they made such a big deal of this, that they hadn’t even though of the possible knock on effects we are seeing now. 

Now I'm not a paranoid conspiracy theorist or anything, but this whole thing stinks of them hyping up a 'new variant' as a way to disguise their blatant mismanagement and it's backfired.  It reminds me of the hype around G614 back in the early summer (June/July) which had the same claims (much more transmissible, rapidly crowding out other variants to become the dominant strain in geographical locations where it was being found) and we did not see an increase in rate of spread, rate of hospitalisations or morbidity with the same patterns of community spread being broadly comparable whichever geographic area or time slice you look at the numbers for.

[BobWillis]

If this new strain is such a worry for the government, then why did they move areas down into tier 1 hours before introducing a tier 4? 
 

Don’t tell me it’s contained to the South East and London because it isn’t. 
 

If it’s as bad as they’re making out then no area should be in tier 1 any more. 
 

This was their way of cancelling Christmas while saving face and it’s backfired on them spectacularly. 

[Spindles]

Yeah, I'm calling bollocks on it, to be honest.  I'm only a layperson but like most of us, one whose had plenty of time on their hands to do a lot of reading this last year and honestly looking at the numbers it was pretty clear that limiting the lockdown to 4 weeks regardless of effect was a twat's plan (also not going to dismiss that Kier Starmer's 2 week 'fire break' would have been as effective as pissing on a bonfire) and the hospitalisations had only dipped like 10-15% by Dec 2nd, even if cases had appeared to drop.  I was wondering, by about Dec 10th how they'd wriggle out of taking responsibility for the fact it was not possible that we would reach Christmas without numbers rapidly increasing again as we were going from a standing start of 15-20k cases per day and hospital capacity was still close to the edge.

Allowing a period for people to rush to the shops after lockdown is as daft as eat out to infect your neighbours.  Lockdown 2 was pissed away before it even began with the hard limit to it's timescale and anecdotally to me it seemed like people were far less compliant than Lockdown 1.

I was concerned about hospital numbers back then, I feel fucking awful for people working in the health service now and what we are facing over the next 6 weeks.

[Zoo Music Girl]

10 minutes ago, Spindles said:

Yeah, I'm calling bollocks on it, to be honest.  I'm only a layperson but like most of us, one whose had plenty of time on their hands to do a lot of reading this last year and honestly looking at the numbers it was pretty clear that limiting the lockdown to 4 weeks regardless of effect was a twat's plan (also not going to dismiss that Kier Starmer's 2 week 'fire break' would have been as effective as pissing on a bonfire) and the hospitalisations had only dipped like 10-15% by Dec 2nd, even if cases had appeared to drop.  I was wondering, by about Dec 10th how they'd wriggle out of taking responsibility for the fact it was not possible that we would reach Christmas without numbers rapidly increasing again as we were going from a standing start of 15-20k cases per day and hospital capacity was still close to the edge.

Allowing a period for people to rush to the shops after lockdown is as daft as eat out to infect your neighbours.  Lockdown 2 was pissed away before it even began with the hard limit to it's timescale and anecdotally to me it seemed like people were far less compliant than Lockdown 1.

I was concerned about hospital numbers back then, I feel fucking awful for people working in the health service now and what we are facing over the next 6 weeks.

Out of upvotes but this deserves one!

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

15 minutes ago, Spindles said:

Yeah, I'm calling bollocks on it, to be honest.  I'm only a layperson but like most of us, one whose had plenty of time on their hands to do a lot of reading this last year and honestly looking at the numbers it was pretty clear that limiting the lockdown to 4 weeks regardless of effect was a twat's plan (also not going to dismiss that Kier Starmer's 2 week 'fire break' would have been as effective as pissing on a bonfire) and the hospitalisations had only dipped like 10-15% by Dec 2nd, even if cases had appeared to drop.  I was wondering, by about Dec 10th how they'd wriggle out of taking responsibility for the fact it was not possible that we would reach Christmas without numbers rapidly increasing again as we were going from a standing start of 15-20k cases per day and hospital capacity was still close to the edge.

Allowing a period for people to rush to the shops after lockdown is as daft as eat out to infect your neighbours.  Lockdown 2 was pissed away before it even began with the hard limit to it's timescale and anecdotally to me it seemed like people were far less compliant than Lockdown 1.

I was concerned about hospital numbers back then, I feel fucking awful for people working in the health service now and what we are facing over the next 6 weeks.

you think they are lying about this new strain?

[zahidf]

The chairman of the Metropolitan Police Federation, Ken Marsh, has said there is “no way” officers will be knocking on the doors of “normal” households in London to check coronavirus restrictions were being followed now the city is in tier 4.

“We won’t be knocking on people’s doors at all, unless there is a large group and noise, ie a party or something like that.

“But normal day-to-day households? There’s no way that my colleagues will be dealing with that.”

He told BBC News if people refuse to open the door to police, officers have no power to force entry to the property, calling coronavirus laws a “toothless tiger”.

[steviewevie]

 

[zahidf]

 

[gigpusher]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

you think they are lying about this new strain?

I don't think they are lying about it but hasn't it existed since September so it's not new information. The main cause in my opinion was putting London in tier 2 after lockdown rather than tier 3 which it absolutely should have been. It's getting hard to keep track of the number of times the Tories have fucked this up and made the wrong call. 

I never intended mixing over Christmas because I already didn't trust what they were saying. The should never have given people that hope though it is a twattish thing to do. 

[Guest]

 

 

[mattiloy]

Just now, steviewevie said:

you think they are lying about this new strain?

I think folks are more questioning the seriousness of it.

They have modelled R and they said that with moderate confidence it could be spreading faster and have included What sounds like an an upper limit (by upto 1.7x quicker) on that estimate.

’Moderate confidence’ is not that impressive though. It likely means that their model accuracy is not that high. Modelling has often been a bit off during this pandemic. Its hard to accurately model something as complex as the growth of a virus at the best of times but in a constantly changing environment with short or poor quality data i’d Imagine its a real headache.

There have been a few instances where certain strains have become the dominant one in various parts of the world without having necessarily being more transmissable. The exponential nature of the growth of the virus means that any strain could explode at a given time by sheer chance- say this strain was present at a couple of super spreader events for instance whilst the other wasnt.

Lets hope that that is the case anyway!

[xxialac]

Massively agree.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

I don't think they are lying about it but hasn't it existed since September so it's not new information. The main cause in my opinion was putting London in tier 2 after lockdown rather than tier 3 which it absolutely should have been. It's getting hard to keep track of the number of times the Tories have fucked this up and made the wrong call. 

I never intended mixing over Christmas because I already didn't trust what they were saying. The should never have given people that hope though it is a twattish thing to do. 

read that science website link I posted above and here...Patrick Vallance said that B.1.1.7, which first appeared in a virus isolated on 20 September, accounted for about 26% of cases in mid-November. “By the week commencing the 9th of December, these figures were much higher,” he said. “So, in London, over 60% of all the cases were the new variant.” Boris Johnson added that the slew of mutations may have increased the virus’s transmissibility by 70%.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/mutant-coronavirus-united-kingdom-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear

So, there is still a lot they don't know, but this is obviously a rapidly developing problem. Personally I think they should have lockdown longer or kept restrictions over christmas, but there's a lot of things they're trying to balance here, the economy, peoples' welfare and mental health, and keeping health services from being overrun. The science changed, so they had to change. Maybe they could have done it earlier, I don't know....but I just don't believe they're making this up or exagerrating to cover up a u-turn or anything.

[steviewevie]

More on new strain and europe etc etc

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/european-experts-urge-caution-over-new-covid-mutation-uk

[Spindles]

30 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

you think they are lying about this new strain?

Oh no, I'm sure it exists, there is plenty of documentation to demonstrate that, I think they are exaggerating it's impact to mask the rising numbers being due to the failure of their policies to impact on the situation.

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, Spindles said:

Oh no, I'm sure it exists, there is plenty of documentation to demonstrate that, I think they are exaggerating it's impact to mask the rising numbers being due to the failure of their policies to impact on the situation.

Right, so we’re supposed to believe that the original virus is doubling every week under moderately draconian tier 2 restrictions? Bollocks.

 

There is very clearly a new strain originating in Kent/East London that can transmit more easily than OG covid. One of my friends has caught the Dartford Supersniffles without attending any social events or meeting people outside his household. He literally either caught it outside on the street or in Asda. 
 

The good news is he tells me it just feels like a cold. 

[Spindles]

Please feel free to look at the numbers, in March it was doubling every 3-4 days at peak infection rate with the original strain, look at any nation on earth that failed to contain it and look at the numbers during peak spread.  Italy, UK, US, Spain, China, any nation on earth.  This isn't data that is unavailable.  Doubling in a week is a serious failure of containment, but it HAS spread faster previously.

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, Spindles said:

Please feel free to look at the numbers, in March it was doubling every 3-4 days at peak infection rate with the original strain, look at any nation on earth that failed to contain it and look at the numbers during peak spread.  Italy, UK, US, Spain, China, any nation on earth.  This isn't data that is unavailable.  Doubling in a week is a serious failure of containment, but it HAS spread faster previously.

It spread faster when everyone was just running around doing what they like every day. Tier 2 restrictions are a pretty serious curb on daily life. You’d expect the R rate to be a lot lower in Tier 2 than its natural level (but higher than tier 3 or 4)

[BobWillis]

7 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Right, so we’re supposed to believe that the original virus is doubling every week under moderately draconian tier 2 restrictions? Bollocks.

 

There is very clearly a new strain originating in Kent/East London that can transmit more easily than OG covid. One of my friends has caught the Dartford Supersniffles without attending any social events or meeting people outside his household. He literally either caught it outside on the street or in Asda. 
 

The good news is he tells me it just feels like a cold. 

So he caught covid in a supermarket, one of the places you are most likely to catch it, but he must have caught the super duper version?