When will this shit end?

[Kalopsia]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Bojo with his serious face...

 

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Bojo with his serious face...

 

I wonder what he's going to say this time.

[incident]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

it changed in that the dominant virus strain was estimated to be 70% more infectious...

That's not a change that should matter though.

They had the data weeks ago that said infections were rising fast, and if they'd acted as they should at the time then London wouldn't have been kept in Tier 2 long past common sense. They knew because pretty much all the experts were telling them so that a Christmas relaxations was a disaster in the making.

Really, if they'd been doing their job in any halfway competent fashion then any news / estimates of a new strain should be nothing more than adding context to a decision already taken.

[Spindles]

 

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

For one thing, the rapid spread of B.1.1.7 might be down to chance. Scientists previously worried that a variant that spread rapidly from Spain to the rest of Europe—confusingly called B.1.177—might be more transmissible, but today they think it is not; it just happened to be carried all over Europe by travelers who spent their holidays in Spain. Something similar might be happening with B.1.1.7, says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Georgetown University.

Yeah, that's sort of the point I'm trying to make really.  The rate of spread is almost certainly exactly the same rate of spread as we would have seen, with these conditions and these current 'controls' in place without any mutation.  I expect that if we were to look at this again in 6 weeks this would be demonstrably evidenced by the data.

I like numbers, I'm fascinated by the data that's been available throughout this pandemic and I have tried to remain dispassionate and view it only from the perspective of modelling the data and examining the evidence of those numbers in relation to articles on the subject rather than news reports.  I've tried not to go spouting my mouth off too much like an armchair expert who thinks their small slice of perspective on things is the full picture, but I'm fairly certain that I am at least coming from a decently informed view.  The fact that you've been able to get full CSV data from almost any nation on earth that is updated daily for nearly 12 months now has meant armchair statistics fans like myself have been able to really look at this in detail and things like heat maps demonstrating regional spread and so on are fascinating to see both at home and abroad.

[ace56blaa]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I wonder what he's going to say this time.

Probably start a culture war with europe

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Spindles said:

Yeah, that's sort of the point I'm trying to make really.  The rate of spread is almost certainly exactly the same rate of spread as we would have seen, with these conditions and these current 'controls' in place without any mutation.  I expect that if we were to look at this again in 6 weeks this would be demonstrably evidenced by the data.

maybe, but we just don't know yet. There is a nasty strain in S Africa, this could be similar to that.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I wonder what he's going to say this time.

he's going to admit that it's all made up so he could cancel christmas and then he'll do an evil laugh.

[xxialac]

8 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I wonder what he's going to say this time.

Blame Canada.

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by xxialac

[Spindles]

Just now, steviewevie said:

he's going to admit that it's all made up so he could cancel christmas and then he'll do an evil laugh.

He's going to tell us not to panic buy, announce restrictions on movement within the country and let us know about the impending longer, stricter, harder lockdown that starts very soon.

[gigpusher]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

it changed in that the dominant virus strain was estimated to be 70% more infectious...

But what I am saying is that scientists were still saying it was a bad idea regardless. The decision they made was always ludicrous and not following the science. 

They have cared more about economics and most importantly the economics of London than anything else. 3 weeks ago when they made this decision and decided on the tier for each area they kept Manchester in tier 3 even though it's case numbers had reduced and seemed to be on a downward trend whereas they allowed London to stay in tier 2 even though case numbers were on the increase and many areas had much higher numbers than Manchester. There was no logic or following the science to their actions and that is why we are where we are. Regardless of how virulent the virus was it is always going to hit the higher density populations more and it would have been a sensible precaution to put all the larger cities in tier 3. 

[Crazyfool01]

9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I wonder what he's going to say this time.

im quiting and brexits cancelled ?

Edited December 21, 2020 by crazyfool1

[steviewevie]

37 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

Did you not bother to read the thread, and missed the part where they said they randomly retested 10% of negative samples with PCR tests and found 6 false negatives? 

bit trigger happy with your downvotes aren't you?

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, gigpusher said:

But what I am saying is that scientists were still saying it was a bad idea regardless. The decision they made was always ludicrous and not following the science. 

They have cared more about economics and most importantly the economics of London than anything else. 3 weeks ago when they made this decision and decided on the tier for each area they kept Manchester in tier 3 even though it's case numbers had reduced and seemed to be on a downward trend whereas they allowed London to stay in tier 2 even though case numbers were on the increase and many areas had much higher numbers than Manchester. There was no logic or following the science to their actions and that is why we are where we are. Regardless of how virulent the virus was it is always going to hit the higher density populations more and it would have been a sensible precaution to put all the larger cities in tier 3. 

yeah, true dat......but it changed from a bad idea to a really really bad idea.

[xxialac]

There are no words in the English language as effective at making people panic buying as "Don't panic buy".

[ace56blaa]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

There are no words in the English language as effective at making people panic buying as "Don't panic buy".

Yeah but Boris Johnson knows this and will say it anyway, because then he can blame the public for not listening to him

[Spindles]

1 minute ago, gigpusher said:

Regardless of how virulent the virus was it is always going to hit the higher density populations more and it would have been a sensible precaution to put all the larger cities in tier 3. 

Correct.  Some time ago in this thread I posted my thoughts on how this should have been handled, regional separation with no transport between except freight, strictly controlled, regional healthcare bubbles where there is no overlap between areas.  All major population centres to experience tighter controls, smaller regional separation than treating Barrow the same as Liverpool or Orkney the same as Glasgow (basically 4 zones in Wales, 6 zones in Scotland, 18 in England and NI is too dense to be more than on it's own).  Essentially this is the kind of method we've used in the past for animal epidemics successfully and what it does is clears out each zone and allows for better monitoring and control with less risk of cross-regional contamination.  

The travel restrictions including public services and healthcare means that if one area blows up there is less risk of the neighbouring areas being affected and stricter, targeted controls in that area can bring it back under control.

What the tories did instead was repeatedly react, too late every time, to public opinion and their entire strategy has been more about damage control for them than containment for us.

[efcfanwirral]

Considering his real target audience he may be best off taking a siege mentality line, where Europe is bullying us. Basically, now people can't really leave their homes, admit that yes there may be food shortages, yes there may be job losses and business closures but we'll be free. His approval ratings would probably shoot right back up. 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

There are no words in the English language as effective at making people panic buying as "Don't panic buy".

its difficult to tell the panic buying and the Christmas Buying apart at the moment .... should get a better idea when we reopen on the 27th after Christmas .... its usually very quiet going into jan ... we will see .... lots of supermarkets  are also no longer 24hours so its quite hard to tell at the moment 

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

its difficult to tell the panic buying and the Christmas Buying apart at the moment .... should get a better idea when we reopen on the 27th after Christmas .... its usually very quiet going into jan ... we will see .... lots of supermarkets  are also no longer 24hours so its quite hard to tell at the moment 

You can easily tell the panic buying just by looking at people's trolleys or the empty shelves for staples.

Edited December 21, 2020 by xxialac

[efcfanwirral]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

its difficult to tell the panic buying and the Christmas Buying apart at the moment .... should get a better idea when we reopen on the 27th after Christmas .... its usually very quiet going into jan ... we will see .... lots of supermarkets  are also no longer 24hours so its quite hard to tell at the moment 

Went to my local big tesco this morning to do the weekly shop- didn't know how today would go so wanted to get it done before tonight (felt bad and like a panic buyer though...) and it was really busy but mainly old people just doing normal shopping, I cant imagine they're panic buyers - dont want to generalise but people that age usually believe the government when they say things will be fine 

[steviewevie]

maybe we won't notice no dea brexit disruption with all this other stuff going on at the ports...hmmm, starting to get on board with the conspiracies floating about now...

[xxialac]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Went to my local big tesco this morning to do the weekly shop- didn't know how today would go so wanted to get it done before tonight (felt bad and like a panic buyer though...) and it was really busy but mainly old people just doing normal shopping, I cant imagine they're panic buyers - dont want to generalise but people that age usually believe the government when they say things will be fine 

I think today is too soon for it to take off. There's always a lag between an incident and the time when it starts to spread quickly (Panic R rate of about 3 I'd say).

[steviewevie]

 

[xxialac]

We won't have empty shelves. We'll have Australian-style supermarkets.

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Went to my local big tesco this morning to do the weekly shop- didn't know how today would go so wanted to get it done before tonight (felt bad and like a panic buyer though...) and it was really busy but mainly old people just doing normal shopping, I cant imagine they're panic buyers - dont want to generalise but people that age usually believe the government when they say things will be fine 

I really didnt notice anything today .... people concentrating on Christmas shops mostly ..... I did wonder how long some are going to be eating some of the bigger Turkeys for when you see massive fresh ones in peoples trolleys ...maybe big households though 🙂  .... I suspect we will have many of those left on xmas eve