Weather 2016

[devonhammer]

10 minutes ago, fur_q said:

small note of caution though, the 0z gfs (SLP) ensemble still showing quite a wide spread from 21st onwards, meaning confidence still not great, the operational run is (bar 1 other) the most optimistic and quite along way form the mean. 

 

I wouldn't say that the operational is the most optimistic. There's 20 runs plus the mean and the control. You just can't see the runs that are on zero precipitation. Even if we went with the mean, we're looking at showers, so nothing to get too worried about.

 

I'm certainly more optimistic today.

[big__phil]

2 minutes ago, elias said:

Your genitals are damp, green and smell faintly of fish? It's a wonder you've got a girlfriend! 

And salty - don't forget salty.

[fur_q]

4 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

I wouldn't say that the operational is the most optimistic. There's 20 runs plus the mean and the control. You just can't see the runs that are on zero precipitation. Even if we went with the mean, we're looking at showers, so nothing to get too worried about.

 

I'm certainly more optimistic today.

Sorry I was referring to the the sea level pressure charts

 

[fewcloudy]

4 hours ago, waterfalls212434 said:

Jeans would be mental to wear in any weather soak up mud/water like a sponge, v heavy, v hot on the ol sweaty bits and take up a lot of room in bag.

 I'mbringing shorts, t shirts, one hoodie for if it gets a bit chilly in the evenings and a set of waterproof trousers/coat for if the worst happens (handy that my old man's a keen fisherman and lends me his decent all weather gear) ...also walking boots have got me by fine even in 2014 when it was quite muddy at times....comfier, better ankle support and less likly to be sucked off in the mud.

I'm wondering what one should wear to make it more likely to be sucked off in the mud?

fc

[devonhammer]

4 minutes ago, fur_q said:

Sorry I was referring to the the sea level pressure charts

I'd still take an SLP of 1015 mb. It's not perfect, but it's not that bad either.

[waterfalls212434]

if people would stop posting shit that you need to be a meteorological scientist to work out and just tell us if its going to ` rain biblical` `spit a bit` or be `dry as the sahara` id be very grateful...

[waterfalls212434]

2 minutes ago, fewcloudy said:

I'm wondering what one should wear to make it more likely to be sucked off in the mud?

fc

if thats your fetish pal you indulge.......may I suggest Phillipas van though for a bit more privacy?

[CaledonianGonzo]

1 minute ago, waterfalls212434 said:

if people would stop posting sht that you need to be a meteorological scientist to work out and just tell us if its going to ` rain biblical` `spit a bit` or be `dry as the sahara` id be very grateful...

And maybe if you read what they're posting you might learn something.

[devonhammer]

Just now, waterfalls212434 said:

if people would stop posting shit that you need to be a meteorological scientist to work out and just tell us if its going to ` rain biblical` `spit a bit` or be `dry as the sahara` id be very grateful...

To help anyone who's unsure about ensembles, you can read this fascinating article. With regards to the Control run "The control member uses these initial conditions directly, while the perturbed members use an initial condition which has been obtained using an Ensemble Transform Bred Vector (ETBV) method that is designed to pick out the fastest growing modes in the model (with the hope that these simulate the fastest growing sources of uncertainty in the atmosphere). These perturbations are also subjected to stochastic physics perturbations."

Simples

To answer the question: Spit a bit (bit of a guess this far out though)

[waterfalls212434]

5 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

And maybe if you read what they're posting you might learn something.

it was a joke........all forecasting at this stage may as well be psychic readings anyway so who cares how its presented. Ill give a lot more respect to any forecast I see from sunday onwards. long range weather forecasting even meteorological scientists will admit is more guesswork then anything. Unless somebody comes up with a way to predict mother nature......

Edited June 15, 2016 by waterfalls212434

[billum]

A perturbed member? Stimulated fast growing mode? Getting sucked off in the mud? In an ensemble? This weather forecasting sounds like much more fun than I ever realised, no wonder they smile so much during the forecasts on TV

[ukmountie]

33 minutes ago, big__phil said:

Who told you my girlfriends nickname for my genitals?

Hey Old Greg, was wondering what happened to you.

[Thunderstruck]

Based on the latest run (don't pay too much attention to individual runs, but it's fun to do) the weather is this:

Wednesday: generally cloudy max temp 18c with some light rain forecast

Thursday: Low cloud slowly breaking during the day to give some warm sunny spells, max temp 20c

Friday: Generally cloudy but maybe some brightness later as low cloud thins. Light rain possible Max 18c

Sat-Sun: Looking ok on the 06z with some warm sunny spells and showers.

[Woffy]

15 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

if people would stop posting shit that you need to be a meteorological scientist to work out and just tell us if its going to ` rain biblical` `spit a bit` or be `dry as the sahara` id be very grateful...

Did you go to the CrazyPenguin School of Literature and Punctuation?

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, Woffy said:

Did you go to the CrazyPenguin School of Literature and Punctuation?

 

[SwedgeAntilles]

19 minutes ago, ukmountie said:

Hey Old Greg, was wondering what happened to you.

He made a crumble.

[devonhammer]

10 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Based on the latest run (don't pay too much attention to individual runs, but it's fun to do) the weather is this:

Wednesday: generally cloudy max temp 18c with some light rain forecast

Thursday: Low cloud slowly breaking during the day to give some warm sunny spells, max temp 20c

Friday: Generally cloudy but maybe some brightness later as low cloud thins. Light rain possible Max 18c

Sat-Sun: Looking ok on the 06z with some warm sunny spells and showers.

It's looking OK, but I can't stop myself animating the pressure map. That North Atlantic low is too close for comfort. If I had to bet on it now, then I think you're spot on, but it could still be rain free if the high just pushes up a bit.

[SwedgeAntilles]

I don't want to come over all 'The Nal' but Thunderstruck's comment there suggests rain (albeit of varying degrees) on four of the five days. Bit dodgy that, a drizzle becomes a downpour fairly easily. 

[jparx]

16 minutes ago, Woffy said:

Did you go to the CrazyPenguin School of Literature and Punctuation?

Don't...I miss the Penguin so much 

[warriormonk]

24 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

To help anyone who's unsure about ensembles, you can read this fascinating article.

Yeah the thing is that article is written for those who already know the jargon.  It would be really great if one of you weather buffs could bash out a few lines generally explaining the overall context of that jargon in everyday language.

So GFS, I assume, is Global Forecasting System.  But what is a run? What is an ensemble? What is the significance of a number followed by z?

I'm really interested in this kind of thing

[fur_q]

9 minutes ago, Scruffylovemonster said:

What is a z? I'm presuming it's a time but oif so why not say 0600h or 6 o'clock?

z = hour the model run commences in UTC (universal central time) which is GMT so British Summer Time -1

[rebus]

11 minutes ago, Scruffylovemonster said:

What is a z? I'm presuming it's a time but oif so why not say 0600h or 6 o'clock?

Zulu

[wetflame]

The z stands for Zulu time, it's a military/universal time zone thing. 

[Mezhyp1]

yr.no for Shepton Mallet 

[bigfurbdogg]

Just now, Mezhyp1 said:

yr.no for Shepton Mallet 

That's looking more like it!