Weather thread 2015

[devonhammer]

How many sites/forecasters are you using at this stage Pedmills? It's just that that top one is soooo much higher than the others, that it might be affecting the mean quite a lot? Can we expect the jagged changes in the lines to smooth out a bit more as time goes on?

Before anyone says it, I feel like an idiot for asking such stupid questions to such seasoned forecast watchers!

I've wanted to ask this as well. A lot of the sites put GFS data through their own algorithm so you can end up with a lot of weight going on that data if lots of GFS sites are in use. Some sites (like Accuweather) use that data, but mess about with it to such an extent that it comes up with really weird forecasts. I'm guessing that this will get much better once all the other weather agencies get within range.

[ThomThomDrum]

Nal's glass is always half-empty!

What it is is that his glass used to be full, and he had a big fucking glass, but then he got too drunk and spilt it all over himself and he is now soaking wet, miserable and in a bad mood about it all and so he wants to see everyone else suffer the same wet miserable faith. He feels having others to be wet and miserable with that he will not actually feel as bad............He wants it to rain to be happy because he is lonely

The reality of the situation is if you now have a glass half full/empty or a glass totally full/empty wrt to the weather you are in fact delusional. All as crazy as each other

There is no glass. Its a figment of your imagination. Glasses dont come into existence until June 21st................

[devonhammer]

Latest GFS run shows that the previous one was just an outlier. We're back in the game:

[big__phil]

Latest GFS run shows that the previous one was just an outlier. We're back in the game:

Yes!

Where's that goat?

[Padgey]

What it is is that his glass used to be full, and he had a big fucking glass, but then he got too drunk and spilt it all over himself and he is now soaking wet, miserable and in a bad mood about it all and so he wants to see everyone else suffer the same wet miserable faith. He feels having others to be wet and miserable with that he will not actually feel as bad............He wants it to rain to be happy because he is lonely

The reality of the situation is if you now have a glass half full/empty or a glass totally full/empty wrt to the weather you are in fact delusional. All as crazy as each other

There is no glass. Its a figment of your imagination. Glasses dont come into existence until June 21st................

I'll raise a glass to that!

[Brave Sir Robin]

Latest GFS run shows that the previous one was just an outlier. We're back in the game:

Beautiful!

[Swine_Glasto2014]

Don't give up Nal, fantastic

[Battlescar]

Latest GFS run shows that the previous one was just an outlier. We're back in the game:

For the idiot - which I am - which colours are good and which are bad?

[JoeyT]

can't wait for Nal to see the latest charts

[bamber]

http://convergence-zone.blogspot.co.uk/2011/11/understanding-gfs-hgt500-sea-level.html

[devonhammer]

For the idiot - which I am - which colours are good and which are bad?

I think the easiest way to think of it is as hills and valleys. You want to be on a hill or ridge and not in a trough or valley. North of the Azores is a 1012 which is relatively high pressure, but is actually lower than the surrounding area and will probably be wet. We've got a high over East Anglia which is good for limiting rain and, also, winds go clockwise around high pressure and so the South West will get (warm) winds from the South.

This is oversimplified for the weather nerds, but makes the charts easy to read.

[richy24]

Yes Please....

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/14days.asp?zipcode=Glastonbury&locationID=57455&lat=51.1&lon=-2.7&findtype=

[bennyhana22]

Yes Please....

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/14days.asp?zipcode=Glastonbury&locationID=57455&lat=51.1&lon=-2.7&findtype=

Why is it that the traditionally least accurate weather website is now forcing me to become a Blind Davidian-Sect-Like devotee?!

But yes, PLEASE!

Ben

[benc]

Yes Please....

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/14days.asp?zipcode=Glastonbury&locationID=57455&lat=51.1&lon=-2.7&findtype=

Stick - some very good data must have gone into the making of that forecast

[majormajormajor]

Stick - some very good data must have gone into the making of that forecast

doesn't appear to be backed up by any of the forecasting models. not to say it won't happen, though, because it's just guesswork at this stage.

[pedmills]

Yes Please....

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/14days.asp?zipcode=Glastonbury&locationID=57455&lat=51.1&lon=-2.7&findtype=

This morning Metcheck was forecasting 13.2mm, now it's 0.2. The previous day it was 0.5. It's all over the place.

[bennyhana22]

This morning Metcheck was forecasting 13.2mm, now it's 0.2. The previous day it was 0.5. It's all over the place.

Ah yes, but today it's CORRECT, obviously!

Ben

[benc]

Ah yes, but today it's CORRECT, obviously!

Ben

exactly - forecasts get more accurate as you get nearer the time

[richy24]

On another positive note, Accuweather is now down to 1 Thunderstorm over the 5 day period (from 4 a couple of days ago!)

[Battlescar]

I think the easiest way to think of it is as hills and valleys. You want to be on a hill or ridge and not in a trough or valley. North of the Azores is a 1012 which is relatively high pressure, but is actually lower than the surrounding area and will probably be wet. We've got a high over East Anglia which is good for limiting rain and, also, winds go clockwise around high pressure and so the South West will get (warm) winds from the South.

This is oversimplified for the weather nerds, but makes the charts easy to read.

Ah great - i get that!

Worthy View rather than the bottom of Pennards!

Thanks

[Keithy]

At least the bad weather in the South West this weekend will let me give my new waterproofs a thorough workout!

[siblin]

just a note - Metcheck was bang on the money in 2010

[devonhammer]

just a note - Metcheck was bang on the money in 2010

To be fair to Metcheck, they were bought, so the dubious owner has gone and the predictions of 150 mph winds seem to have gone as well. Still making daily predictions for the next 6 months, but at least I know I won't need an umbrella for Christmas Day.

[BambooShanks]

This thread should come with a warning. 2 weeks ago I checked it after not being satisfied enough with the official jackone thread and now this place is responsible for my refresh button getting hammered.

Thanks to all the contributors, especially the nal who has kept us all grounded and reminded us that essentially, we're fucked, whatever the weather.

I'm trying not to get too carried away with the recent weather reports, there's a definite trend for the better setting in and maybe, just maybe we are set for another 2010.

Though personally I'd take 2013's weather. Ended up not sleeping for 2 days in 2010 and felt like I was going to die when la roux came on though still to this day not sure if that was due to exhaustion or la roux.

I think I need to repeat the experiment but with better music

[Brave Sir Robin]

If you need a reminder of how much these forecasts change, check Pedmills' chart from the Tuesday before last year:

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/topic/183856-weather/page-178#entry4421730