Weather thread 2015

[Stretlow]

Nal's the Glastonbury weather thread pantomime villain isn't he?

Not really, just a bit of a Pillock.

Edited June 13, 2015 by Stretlow

[devonhammer]

What does a third of an inch of rain mean in reality to the site. I'm struggling to put it into context whether that's a significant amount of rain or not. How long a period is that amount of rain over?

A third of an inch is about 8mm. Doesn't sound much, but 1mm is a litre per square metre, so 8mm is the equivalent of 8 litres of water being pored on each square metre. That's fine for a normal field, but if a couple of hundred thousand people walk on it, it's muddy. The time range changes and gets shorter the nearer you are. You can see the charts are more jagged and angular further out.

[Migraine]

A third of an inch is about 8mm. Doesn't sound much, but 1mm is a litre per square metre, so 8mm is the equivalent of 8 litres of water being pored on each square metre. That's fine for a normal field, but if a couple of hundred thousand people walk on it, it's muddy. The time range changes and gets shorter the nearer you are. You can see the charts are more jagged and angular further out.

Cheers I hadn't thought of it in terms of volume before it makes more sense now.

In terms of timescale what I meant was the chart with the 8mm of rain data point is that per hour, per day? I'm aware that the scale will change nearer the time just trying to get a feel for what it is now.

Edited June 13, 2015 by Migraine

[andymk]

4-5 days before the festival. Any weather report before then isn't within an asses roar of being accurate.

Me too but its utter nonsense. No one can predict the weather from 5 days out. And usually even 3 days out is wrong.

A weather thread 6 weeks out doesn't even have 0.0000001% accuracy.

All this thread seems to do is stress people out who really rely on nice weather for a more comfortable festival. People with physical difficulties, with kids etc.

So I'll be trolling all weather threads until the 3rd week of June.

To be honest, I'm not sure if it's just pure negative weather banter for the sake of a laugh, or if there is an element of reverse psychology on The Nal's part - i.e. if I only ever predict a monsoon, it'll all be alright.

My money favours the former, however...

Ben

See above

[ghandi]

Download copped it this weekend, my Nephew is there at the moment ( no accounting for taste ), it has rained non stop for the past 48 hours! Pretty much a waste land and his tent is ruined after the heavy stuff, he had a new one of those throw up tents. He's road testing it for us as we've all invested in one. It leaked! He therefore will spend tonight sleeping in the car. Seems that belt of rain that went across the middle of the country at an angle fell right on the festival.

I like that Download took a hit for us

Edited June 13, 2015 by ghandi

[ghandi]

Accuweather now only showing 4mm rain on Saturday, otherwise Sun

[FuzzyDunlop]

I have a 2 man pop up tent for me this year. For the first time. I expect it to leak, break or whatever if we get bad weather

[Koroviev]

Popup tents are decent nowadays, had a Decathlon one for the past 3 years and it survived leeds 2013, which I was told was about a month's worth of August rain over 2 days.

[CaledonianGonzo]

Nal's the Glastonbury weather thread pantomime villain isn't he?

Here he is counting the likely forecast mm of precipitation:

[FuzzyDunlop]

Popup tents are decent nowadays, had a Decathlon one for the past 3 years and it survived leeds 2013, which I was told was about a month's worth of August rain over 2 days.

Yeah, but I got mine from Tesco

[Padgey]

The thunderstorms have disappeared and the sun is starting to show, what was all the panic!

[Tacopowell]

Oh go on then. You can see that the operational run (the one for the forecasts) is the most pessimistic. There are loads of models run (look on the left) and the bold red line is the average. Lots of weather sites will be predicting rain because they're using the green line, but it does look like it's out on its own. You can be confident whwn all the models agree, so I'd say that Somerset will be pretty dry until next Sunday.

Oh my!

[Matt42]

https://twitter.com/WestHoltsGlasto/status/609768033217847296

[Michaels denim shorts]

https://twitter.com/WestHoltsGlasto/status/609768033217847296

Stick

[st dan]

Stick

I'm a bit of a gambler and that rain on the Saturday isn't ideal .. Think I'll take a slightly nervy twist and go for full out sunshine!!

[Michaels denim shorts]

I'm a bit of a gambler and that rain on the Saturday isn't ideal .. Think I'll take a slightly nervy twist and go for full out sunshine!!

Don't anger the weather gods

[devonhammer]

This is up and down like a bride's nighty. High pressure you say? Don't mind if I do

[ThomThomDrum]

Nal's the Glastonbury weather thread pantomime villain isn't he?

OH NO HE ISNT!!!!

[Starchild771]

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83345-blog-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-5/

"Overall

Despite the concerns above, the current trend remains for the festival weather to be more settled, drier and warmer than average for the time of year. As such I give this festival a 3/10 rating at this time (0dustbowl, 10mudbath)"

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83255-model-output-discussion-1st-june-2015-12z/page-29

It's way too soon to get excited but things are looking ok at this point.

[GlastoSimon]

3/10 ain't bad, especially seeing as I think he'll be a bit pessimistic at this stage.

That seems to be it really, the bad weather has come as expected, expecting it to pick back up next week/into the week after, it's just now whether it holds up for the whole of the festival weekend.

Having said that, these forecasts can change all the time I'd much rather be hoping that most of the current forecasts are accurate than hoping for drastic change though, like 2014.

[Cooter]

On a different subject but slightly the same I really wish Jack1, or whatever his name is nowadays, would change is 1-10 rating to 10=dustbowl and 1=shite.

[GlastoSimon]

On a different subject but slightly the same I really wish Jack1, or whatever his name is nowadays, would change is 1-10 rating to 10=dustbowl and 1=shite.

I must admit I did shit myself slightly when I saw 3, thinking it was towards the mudbath end of the scale

[Koroviev]

How accurate is this Jack1 guy?

[devonhammer]

How accurate is this Jack1 guy?

Weather forecasts at this range are typically called Fantasy Island. In terms of interpreting this unreliable data, though, he's the best source we've got. He knows his onions.

[Cooter]

He forecasts the weather by looking at what's up in the air and what's most likely to happen. Basically it's attempting to predict the long range future at this point and we all know that's impossible. A few days before then those odds lower dramatically and the guessing becomes easier.