The Weather Thread 2022

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

Here are the ensembles overnight that show precipitation. The green operational run is what bridjj posts on here by way of charts. The red run is the average of all 20 runs. The blue run is the control run. As you can see gfs again shows minimal rain across its various runs.

For me though the more reliable models UKMO AND EMCWF are not quite so bullish and there is a chance low pressure will force out the high somewhat. One to watch very closely. 

What is control and what is operational?

[Alvoram]

We'll just pretend the 00z didn't happen 👀

Pretty wet later in the weekend. 

[The Dawg]

Can I just add that the 2005 festival was the best time I have ever had in my life!

[Aragorn]

12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

What is control and what is operational?

Control run is abit like the line on a covid test that shows whether test is dodgy or not.  

Operational run is the main run that is used for the model output. So when you those charts posted on here - red high pressure and rain maps etc they are based on the operational run. Supposed to be the most accurate run 

[steviewevie]

13 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

We'll just pretend the 00z didn't happen 👀

Pretty wet later in the weekend. 

oh yeah, it did twist. It now has rain for this sunday, then mostly dry, not that hot...but over weekend the low wins and rain starts to move in late saturday night...and monday morning gets all biblical when everybody leaving.

[Alvoram]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

oh yeah, it did twist. It now has rain for this sunday, then mostly dry, not that hot...but over weekend the low wins and rain starts to move in late saturday night...and monday morning gets all biblical when everybody leaving.

The 500 + SLP looks a bit odd to me though, and after all of those runs yesterday, this one is very different. So not too concerning yet. 

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, The Dawg said:

Can I just add that the 2005 festival was the best time I have ever had in my life!

2005 was a silly amount of rain in a short amount of time, and for those people who were flooded it must have been a bit of a mare, but for us it was kind of fun. The flooding did drain and by saturday evening most of the mud had gone (I think)

[Aragorn]

The UKMO AND ECMWF are not great but quite different with no real agreement. Both show low pressure on or around the UK. Still alot of time for things to change in weather terms. 

 

 

 

 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

The 500 + SLP looks a bit odd to me though, and after all of those runs yesterday, this one is very different. So not too concerning yet. 

so...a bad forecast that we like to call an outlier?

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

The UKMO AND ECMWF are not great but quite different with no real agreement. Both show low pressure on or around the UK. Still alot of time for things to change in weather terms. 

 

 

 

 

errr...that low...that is what GFS had a few days ago before they started giving us eye candy...

[squirrelarmy]

25 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Too hot. Twist.

 

Just now, steviewevie said:

errr...that low...that is what GFS had a few days ago before they started giving us eye candy...

Should have stuck with your original hand. 

[Alvoram]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

so...a bad forecast that we like to call an outlier?

Definitely 

6 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

The UKMO AND ECMWF are not great but quite different with no real agreement. Both show low pressure on or around the UK. Still alot of time for things to change in weather terms. 

 

 

 

 

The ECMWF only goes up to Thursday. It's highly considered to be the best. And it has been improving every run, (you've posted images of an older run) with the only rain now showing between now and Thursday being this Sunday coming... It's looking good so far 🤞

(Don't forget the ECMWF precipitation model shows total rain up to and including each time slot, not rain during that time slot, if that makes sense.) 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Alvoram

[Aragorn]

The GFS whilst a good indicator is the least accurate of the UKMO, ECMWF and GFS. So I'm inclined to look towards the euro models now. That said that ECMWF chart has not updated yet for last night 00z so could be alot different. 

[Alvoram]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

The GFS whilst a good indicator is the least accurate of the UKMO, ECMWF and GFS. So I'm inclined to look towards the euro models now. That said that ECMWF chart has not updated yet for last night 00z so could be alot different. 

Spot on, the ECMWF is considered to be the best, but it is shorter range. 

It updated for the 12z yesterday, which was better than the 00z images you posted earlier 🙂 

[fightoffyour]

7 hours ago, briddj said:

Onto the three days of the festival, then. Will the high hold?

FRIDAY

Totally dry, and back to 24 degrees.

The high pressure has actually consolidated its position and got stronger.

SATURDAY

Yep, another lovely dry day but temps drop a little to 20 as the low tries to muscle in.

 

The low pressure has decided to fight back from the north, but how far can it push? The high is staying strong, leaving the low our east.

SUNDAY

Dry, dry, dry. Temps back up to 23. Lovely.

The high pressure wins AGAIN! Moving back in with the low sent packing.

SUMMARY

The 18z, that we all hated so much, has delivered the best charts yet. But it's TOO EARLY.

That low pressure to the north and east (and to an extent the pocked to the south which could bring rain) remains a real danger and it could still all go wrong.

 

 

[plot2pot]

8 hours ago, Brad2434 said:

Yup. Couldn't sit down anywhere on any grass, missed a load of acts due to the walk times between stages being ridiculous. Wasn't fun at all

Oh no, so sorry it ruined it for you that much. I loved every minute of it but it was my first back after a few years break so maybe I was just glad to be back!

[fightoffyour]

41 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Too hot. Twist.

Come on now. Low 20s must be average for the time of year. Twist and you might be dealing with 30. I can take that, but can you?

[briddj]

Will the 00Z continue on the shock positive theme of the 18Z? Let's find out!

THIS WEEKEND

It's a bad start, with lots of heavy rain in a band across the south west on Sunday. But this is really only just touching the site on this run. But it is there nonetheless.

It is then completely dry to gates open. But what happens with the high this time?

Again, the high builds in as the festival begins.

GATES OPEN

It means it's still great for gates open. 19 and dry.

THE FIRST DAYS

WEDNESDAY

Completely dry, 23 degress.

But the low pressure is starting to build in from the north east.

THURSDAY

Dry but a little cooler, at 19 degrees.

That's due to the increasing influence of the low. But who will win the fight in this run?

THE FESTIVAL PROPER

FRIDAY

Completely dry, 20 degrees.

The low pressure appears to be winning the fight now, what will it do to the weekend?

SATURDAY

Still dry with temperatures of 18 now.

But the low is still getting stronger, and that cannot be a good thing.

It means there is rain around in the overnight of early hours Sunday. It's nothing too heavy hitting the site on this chart but would run through to midday Sunday.

SUNDAY

No rain around after midday, max temps of 19.

The low is now settled over the top of the UK.

MONDAY FOR DEPARTURE

Worth a mention here for the first time, as there's the thread of a chilly 11 degrees and very wet pack-up on Monday at 9am.

SUMMARY

So, in this run the low pressure which held off in the 18Z is far more dominant, while we do get some rain this weekend.

Where that rain falls this weekend is still uncertain though, and the temperatures after should mean the ground recovers.

But it really is all to play for over the next week with the high vs. low.

Stay tuned!

 

 

 

 

[2019]

Here's hoping the light north easterly locks in the high. Forecast still looking near perfect, may need a fleece in the evening, as the wind will cool things. 90% sure No Wellies, but still need to keep an eye on this Saturday evening for water.

[Alvoram]

ECMWF updating now. Not sure if this run, or the 18z later will bring Friday into view. 🤞

[squirrelarmy]

MetCheck looking good. 
 

Bonus recovery days forecast which does show potential of hot weather still lurking around.

[FuzzyDunlop]

15 minutes ago, briddj said:

Will the 00Z continue on the shock positive theme of the 18Z? Let's find out!

THIS WEEKEND

It's a bad start, with lots of heavy rain in a band across the south west on Sunday. But this is really only just touching the site on this run. But it is there nonetheless.

It is then completely dry to gates open. But what happens with the high this time?

Again, the high builds in as the festival begins.

GATES OPEN

It means it's still great for gates open. 19 and dry.

THE FIRST DAYS

WEDNESDAY

Completely dry, 23 degress.

But the low pressure is starting to build in from the north east.

THURSDAY

Dry but a little cooler, at 19 degrees.

That's due to the increasing influence of the low. But who will win the fight in this run?

THE FESTIVAL PROPER

FRIDAY

Completely dry, 20 degrees.

The low pressure appears to be winning the fight now, what will it do to the weekend?

SATURDAY

Still dry with temperatures of 18 now.

But the low is still getting stronger, and that cannot be a good thing.

It means there is rain around in the overnight of early hours Sunday. It's nothing too heavy hitting the site on this chart but would run through to midday Sunday.

SUNDAY

No rain around after midday, max temps of 19.

The low is now settled over the top of the UK.

MONDAY FOR DEPARTURE

Worth a mention here for the first time, as there's the thread of a chilly 11 degrees and very wet pack-up on Monday at 9am.

SUMMARY

So, in this run the low pressure which held off in the 18Z is far more dominant, while we do get some rain this weekend.

Where that rain falls this weekend is still uncertain though, and the temperatures after should mean the ground recovers.

But it really is all to play for over the next week with the high vs. low.

Stay tuned!

 

 

 

 

That's a bit better

[mcmenace]

11 hours ago, brettredmayne said:

2016 was nothing compared to 2007 

Out of upvotes and it's only 8am. But this!!!!

[chazwwe]

5 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

That's a bit better

If 19-20 degrees is too hot for you. I don't think you should be festivaling in the summer.

I'd swap Wednesdays 23 with Saturdays. Cooler on the way in for set up. But anywhere 18-23 is pretty perfect for me.

[leath02]

I'm getting a bit nervous at how good this is looking!

Too the point where I dont want to tell my non obsessive friends the current positive outlook

Had been dooming them with rain and mud for last couple of weeks, but dont want to jinx it now

Edited June 14, 2022 by leath02