When will this shit end?

[FestivalJamie]

11 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

There's been talk of timeframes in regards to the vaccine.

So it's 3 weeks between the two doses and then 2 weeks from the second dose until you're considered good to go.

With that in mind I wonder when we are looking at the first relaxation of any social distancing rules?

Late feb / early March?

As per usual I’m just going to have a slightly more cautious and less optimistic approach today. I am overall optimistic about the vaccine though, I think this is a massive scientific breakthrough and is really going to pave the way back to life with no more lockdowns and more normality, and saving thousands of lives too.

In my opinion though, we’ve got to wait for the jabs to be delivered, they’ve got to be frozen for storage which can add logistical complications, and then we’ve got to roll the vaccine out to approx 30-40 mil (over 50s + vulnerable) before we can return to any sense of normality. That’s a mammoth task to achieve and I’m just worried it’s going to take a lot more time than a lot of people are betting on.

I think we will be able to have a relatively normal summer next year, but even if festivals can happen, I don’t think I will go. We have been living under such social separation that going to a festival and being in such close proximity with so many people is going to be particularly mentally tough for me after what we’ve been through. Maybe if festivals successfully go ahead in 2021 then I might make a comeback for 2022.

I suspect relaxation of social distancing hopefully for next summer. I think even throughout the spring not enough people will be vaccinated that masks and social distancing and rule of 6 will still need to be in place until a more significant proportion are vaccinated.

Then we always have the question- how many people won’t get vaccinated? Yesterday in pret a man behind me was refusing to keep his distance, didn’t wear a mask and then tried to barge in front of me in the queue because apparently “he doesn’t believe in conspiracy theories”. So he definitely won’t be getting vaccinated along with 25-50% of others? But luckily because this Pfizer vaccine has a 90% prevention, those who are vaccinated will be protected up to a degree of 90%, meaning that people who take it will be far less likely to be hospitalised, but the virus could still be circulating the community if not enough people take it. This man was definitely over 50 too.

Anyway, there are massive logistical challenges to overcome. If we can start vaccinating late December or January, maybe we will avoid a third lockdown in January, although I see that as unlikely as I think Christmas parties will have a massive spike on the numbers, meaning another circuit breaker might be needed. 

I think we’ll be good to go to start travelling, perhaps also with rapid testing, and perhaps even to festivals by next summer, but remember this is a vaccination program worldwide and not just uk wide which needs to take place, so it’s a massive logistical and scientific hurdle to overcome over the next few months.

Nonetheless, very promising, and it’s such a scientific breakthrough and game changer which is very exciting! But I stand caution over time period and think it could be longer to normality than some think.

[zahidf]

38 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

it's not the having it on order which will count, but when it gets delivered.

We might jump to the front of the queue for the batches produced before approval, but after that we're likely to come under strong pressure to become part of a 'fair' worldwide distribution.

 

They say we will get 10 millions does this year, with another 30 million or so by Jan. Past that may be a issue of course, but if the OXford one works, we have a larger pre-order for that

[FestivalJamie]

7 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Has anything been said about how long they expect the vaccine to last? Or is that impossible to know yet? Just wondering if the expectation is, like the flu jab, people have to have it ever winter.

This is the other thing I was discussing with my aunt yesterday. She says because trials have only been running for 6 months, it’s impossible to know how long immunity will last. For example, everyone might have to have the jab again every 6 months or every year to re boost immunity, which will provide potential logistical challenges.

Anyway I don’t know enough, so I’m sure toilet duck can clear more up for us. But I don’t think it’s possible to know how long the immunity can last when trials have been conducted over such short time frame.

[zahidf]

I expect it will be like the Flu jab. They wont be looking to vaccinate everyone every year or 2 years, just the vulnerable. I dont even think theyll vaccinate close to the entire population, just enough to stop deaths.

Also, mass testing ( similar to the liverpool testing) will start in the NHS from next week apparently

[JoeyT]

1 minute ago, FestivalJamie said:

Then we always have the question- how many people won’t get vaccinated? Yesterday in pret a man behind me was refusing to keep his distance, didn’t wear a mask and then tried to barge in front of me in the queue because apparently “he doesn’t believe in conspiracy theories”. So he definitely won’t be getting vaccinated along with 25-50% of others? But luckily because this Pfizer vaccine has a 90% prevention, those who are vaccinated will be protected up to a degree of 90%, meaning that people who take it will be far less likely to be hospitalised, but the virus could still be circulating the community if not enough people take it. This man was definitely over 50 too.

In response to this I'd say the following:

If you are eligible as an individual and choose not to have the vaccine, society should not and (i'd hope) will not continue to be restricted on account of this.

[Waterdeep]

Once the older and vulnerable have all been vaccinated, there will be an opportunity for the rest of us to take up the vaccine if we want, right? Does anyone know roughly when that might happen? I'm one of the super cautious who works from home and only leaves the house for essentials, and I'll be doing that for as long as I can until I can get vaccinated. I think once the vulnerable groups have been vaccinated and everything opens up it'll be rife everywhere, and I don't want to risk long covid etc.

[FestivalJamie]

5 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

In response to this I'd say the following:

If you are eligible as an individual and choose not to have the vaccine, society should not and (i'd hope) will not continue to be restricted on account of this.

I’ll definitely be taking it once I’m offered. But I’m going to be one of the last to be offered that I wouldn’t expect it until next autumn or winter. Hence I won’t be visiting any festivals next summer regardless.

But let’s hope that those who choose not to have it don’t have an effect on the rest of the wider population, although the less people that take up the vaccine, the more that the virus can circulate, but as long as the vulnerable are protected that’s the main consideration for sure.

Edited November 10, 2020 by FestivalJamie

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Waterdeep said:

Once the older and vulnerable have all been vaccinated, there will be an opportunity for the rest of us to take up the vaccine if we want, right? Does anyone know roughly when that might happen? I'm one of the super cautious who works from home and only leaves the house for essentials, and I'll be doing that for as long as I can until I can get vaccinated. I think once the vulnerable groups have been vaccinated and everything opens up it'll be rife everywhere, and I don't want to risk long covid etc.

my guess is that you'll be waiting a year or so until personal purchase of the vaccine is available (similar to how it for the flu jab). Before then all vaccine is likely to be reserved for govts.

[Zoo Music Girl]

10 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

This is the other thing I was discussing with my aunt yesterday. She says because trials have only been running for 6 months, it’s impossible to know how long immunity will last. For example, everyone might have to have the jab again every 6 months or every year to re boost immunity, which will provide potential logistical challenges.

Anyway I don’t know enough, so I’m sure toilet duck can clear more up for us. But I don’t think it’s possible to know how long the immunity can last when trials have been conducted over such short time frame.

Yeah this is my thinking. For the record I think you're bang on with the cautious but optimistic approach. It's great news and I think festivals could happen next summer, but I'm not going to expect huge changes before then. 

For me personally I will still be being careful until my loved ones are vaccinated, but not everyone has vulnerable people in their lives so can understand those wanting to crack on.

[Waterdeep]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

my guess is that you'll be waiting a year or so until personal purchase of the vaccine is available (similar to how it for the flu jab). Before then all vaccine is likely to be reserved for govts.

Thanks. Yeah that's the sort of timeframe I was thinking too.

[Zoo Music Girl]

12 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

In response to this I'd say the following:

If you are eligible as an individual and choose not to have the vaccine, society should not and (i'd hope) will not continue to be restricted on account of this.

Yeah I agree with this. If you're eligible and offered it and refuse then you have chosen to take that risk. Same with measles (although that's more your parents making that call) or choosing not to take anti malarials when visiting a malarial country etc. You can't protect people who choose not to take the protection really.

Edited November 10, 2020 by Zoo Music Girl

[Fuzzy Afro]

13 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

In response to this I'd say the following:

If you are eligible as an individual and choose not to have the vaccine, society should not and (i'd hope) will not continue to be restricted on account of this.

Spot on. I have zero sympathy for anyone who refuses a vaccine and then ends up getting the virus. I can’t wait to get the vaccine. I’d have them inject me today if I could. 

[zahidf]

Brazil’s health regulator said Monday it had suspended clinical trials of a Chinese-developed Covid-19 vaccine after an “adverse incident” involving a volunteer recipient, a blow for one of the most advanced vaccine candidates, AFP reports.

 

[zahidf]

Bell is in a Parliamentary commtitte meeting now, may expand on his comments yesterday

 

Hancock parliament statement at 1pm today

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Brazil’s health regulator said Monday it had suspended clinical trials of a Chinese-developed Covid-19 vaccine after an “adverse incident” involving a volunteer recipient, a blow for one of the most advanced vaccine candidates, AFP reports.

 

Yeah not surprising to see a Chinese vaccine run into difficulty unfortunately. I don’t think we need to worry too much though. No way our government would be investing in a Chinese vaccine. 

[Toilet Duck]

23 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

A couple of questions, for @Toilet Duckmainly...

Has anything been said about how long they expect the vaccine to last? Or is that impossible to know yet? Just wondering if the expectation is, like the flu jab, people have to have it ever winter.

Do you know much about the China vaccine? Was it rushed through to this phase of trials? Just seen they've stopped the trial in Brazil due to a serious adverse effect and loads of people have already had it.

Howdy,

So, far too early to say how long immunity will last. We know that following natural infection, antibodies start to wane. They have been observed out to 7 months, and there does seem to be a correlation between severity of infection and how long the antibodies hang around. Most projections for the vaccine suggest 1-2 years of neutralising antibodies at a level that will help protect you. This is based on how much of them are produced in response to the shot. It's also the reason why some of the vaccines are using a booster after a few weeks (they've seen a higher, more durable antibody response this way). So, I think at worst it will be an annual thing. Once we've used the vaccine for a while, I'd expect to see trials start to determine whether it can be given with the flu jab, or whether they need to be done separately. And once we have working vaccines, they will evolve to make delivery easier and even to make administration easier (I still think the best vaccine would be a nasally delivered one, not just because people don't like injections (though the stuffy nose you get for a few days after a nasal vaccine is worse than a slightly sore arm in my view), but also because its where the virus primarily infects us and a different part of the immune system gets activated there). Anyway, long story short, we don't know how long it will last, but a realistic projection based on what has been seen in the trials is that it should be good for at least a year. 

The Chinese vaccine (the Sinovac one) has been rolled out in a few places and is undergoing a phase 3 in Brazil (amongst other places). It's been paused for the same reason the Oxford one was and the same reason the J&J one was, in that a serious adverse event occurred. Nothing unusual, par for the course in testing vaccines, will be investigated and if it's not a major worry, the trial will restart. If it happens more frequently, then it might be one of the ones that falls away, but we are in rare times for vaccine development. Not only have all the funding hurdles to development been removed, and we have developed new ways of making them over the last few years, but we also have a rampant pandemic to run phase 3 trials in, so they reach the required number of events for statistical significance way quicker than normally. All of this has accelerated the process a lot. It may just be a perfect storm for developing vaccines, and the spike protein might just be the perfect target, so they all might work, who knows!

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Bell is in a Parliamentary commtitte meeting now, may expand on his comments yesterday

 

Hancock parliament statement at 1pm today

Sir John not mincing his words this morning. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

Howdy,

So, far too early to say how long immunity will last. We know that following natural infection, antibodies start to wane. They have been observed out to 7 months, and there does seem to be a correlation between severity of infection and how long the antibodies hang around. Most projections for the vaccine suggest 1-2 years of neutralising antibodies at a level that will help protect you. This is based on how much of them are produced in response to the shot. It's also the reason why some of the vaccines are using a booster after a few weeks (they've seen a higher, more durable antibody response this way). So, I think at worst it will be an annual thing. Once we've used the vaccine for a while, I'd expect to see trials start to determine whether it can be given with the flu jab, or whether they need to be done separately. And once we have working vaccines, they will evolve to make delivery easier and even to make administration easier (I still think the best vaccine would be a nasally delivered one, not just because people don't like injections (though the stuffy nose you get for a few days after a nasal vaccine is worse than a slightly sore arm in my view), but also because its where the virus primarily infects us and a different part of the immune system gets activated there). Anyway, long story short, we don't know how long it will last, but a realistic projection based on what has been seen in the trials is that it should be good for at least a year. 

The Chinese vaccine (the Sinovac one) has been rolled out in a few places and is undergoing a phase 3 in Brazil (amongst other places). It's been paused for the same reason the Oxford one was and the same reason the J&J one was, in that a serious adverse event occurred. Nothing unusual, par for the course in testing vaccines, will be investigated and if it's not a major worry, the trial will restart. If it happens more frequently, then it might be one of the ones that falls away, but we are in rare times for vaccine development. Not only have all the funding hurdles to development been removed, and we have developed new ways of making them over the last few years, but we also have a rampant pandemic to run phase 3 trials in, so they reach the required number of events for statistical significance way quicker than normally. All of this has accelerated the process a lot. It may just be a perfect storm for developing vaccines, and the spike protein might just be the perfect target, so they all might work, who knows!

Thank you! Very interesting and helpful as ever.

[zahidf]

Lying tories

 

 

[Waterdeep]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Lying tories

 

 

#AccidentalPartridge

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Lying tories

 

 

Christ he’s such a creep. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Matt Hancock at a party 

[efcfanwirral]

 

[zahidf]

Bell also told the health and science committees that he thought up to three vaccines might be available by the new year. He said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit the new year with two or three vaccines, all of which could be distributed.

And that’s why I’m quite optimistic of getting enough vaccinations done in the first quarter of next year that by spring things will start to look much more normal than they do now.

[FestivalJamie]

41 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Yeah this is my thinking. For the record I think you're bang on with the cautious but optimistic approach. It's great news and I think festivals could happen next summer, but I'm not going to expect huge changes before then. 

I know I won’t be vaccinated by next summer, so even if festivals go ahead then I probably will choose not to go.

Unless lorde is headlining, as I’m desperate to see her, but then I will be masked up 😂😷