When will this shit end?

[Matt42]

6 minutes ago, Radiochicken said:

Completely disagree with you, very strongly. Your reply has actually annoyed me.

If I can’t ask about the vaccines effects on transmission, and whether we should change our assumptions or not based on new “data” (I use the term very very loosely here), then what’s the point of a thread titled “when will this shit end?”

Whatever 2+2=5 assumptions you’ve made on why I asked that question, you can keep them in your own head.

I even addressed my question to the expert on the thread, who as always gave a very clear, helpful answer. I value his input, and even if he’s reiterating points raised previously, the repetition helps me (and I assume others) learn. Very science, ay. 

Glad it has because I think it’s a discussion which needs to be raised. What I’m trying to say is at this point in time it is very dangerous to focus on the fringe cases where the vaccine may not give the amount of protection that it will give to the majority of people. Soon vaccine uptake is going to tail off and slow down dramatically. I’m just getting you to please stop giving food to the anti-vaxxers. Our coverage should be focusing on the positives and the efficacy. I’m just trying to warn you that soon it’s going to become really really difficult when uptake starts to tail off.

[zahidf]

9 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I honestly don't know what is the actual point in getting the vaccines if you are younger.  Its pretty clear it isn't really a route to anything other than the same shit we have been doing over the last 15 months.

Unless you are scared of the 0.00005 chance of getting seriously ill from it even without the vaccine.  Then I could understand.

But the vaccine was sold as a passport to freedom and our lives back.  Monday looks shit.

Thats why we should do what the French are doing and expand the vaccine passport for August. that'll get the youngsters wanting a jab

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Our coverage should be focusing on the positives and the efficacy. I’m just trying to warn you that soon it’s going to become really really difficult when uptake starts to tail off.

We're a discussion forum, not a news outlet. 

[Matt42]

Just now, DeanoL said:

We're a discussion forum, not a news outlet. 

All I’m trying to say is look at America. Eventually vaccine uptake hits a peak and starts falling. Because we should approach this situation on the basis that no matter how much we try not everyone is going to get this vaccine. Let’s do everything we can to not increase the number of doubters.

[philipsteak]

1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

I'm going sailing this weekend and beginning to think we'll be safer at sea than we will be on land given the current rates!

My tonsils are giving me grief from all the LFT's i've been doing recently. 

Between LFTs and having to spend my entire shift shouting to be heard by guests (the perspex used on the screen has amazing sound proofing. Which isn't ideal) my throat just feels raw. 

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

ok...this is where I get effectiveness and efficacy mixed up. Would these vaccines have had 100% efficacy? Or would they have been high enough to be able to get these illnesses to very low levels or even eradicate them (i.e. 100% effective)?

Efficacy and effectiveness are more or less the same thing. We use the term efficacy to describe outcomes in a controlled clinical trial, effectiveness is used to described how they perform in real world use. In the trial, we compare to a placebo, in the real world, cases pre- and post-vaccination (case controlled). One is clean, randomised, controlled data (the trial) the other is noisy (real world). Participants in the trial are carefully selected and there are pre-identified inclusion/exclusion criteria which can't be applied in the real world as we want everyone to get the vaccine. So, how they work when the population taking them isn't as uniform as they are in the trials leads us to use the term effectiveness when describing how well they perform. You can choose your outcome when describing either, so you can describe their efficacy or effectiveness at preventing transmission, or (a)symptomatic disease or severe disease or hospitalisations, or ICU admissions or deaths. The bar for approval was 50% efficacy in terms of symptomatic/severe disease (and even that is a moveable feast as you can also define what you think represents symptomatic/severe disease...so some trials included very specific SpO2 levels that were different from others in their definition of severe disease, some included other features of Covid that weren't included in all the trials, hence comparing efficacy from one to another is not entirely accurate). How much virus is circulating influences how effective any vaccine is (as well as a whole bunch of other things, your behaviour, your own underlying genetic makeup, how your immune system is functioning (which varies from person to person and even within people depending on their own physical state) and so on). In terms of eradicating a disease, the measles vaccine is estimated to be about 90% effective at preventing infection. This is more than enough to eradicate it if over 70% of the population get vaccinated (measles has a R0 of between 12 and 20 depending on the environment, so is massively more infectious than our friend SARS-CoV-2, hence the high % of vaccinated individuals required for herd immunity). New people are born all the time, so they need to join the ranks of the vaccinated, or the herd immunity drops and we get outbreaks. However, our good friend Andrew Wakefield ensured that enough people aren't vaccinated and we have seen a resurgence in measles cases. 

[steviewevie]

To all the millions of readers of this thread...the vaccines work, so get jabbed.

[efcfanwirral]

It terrifies me the idea that a certain thing cannot be questioned under any circumstances, just to manipulate a certain situation 

[DeanoL]

5 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

What is going to happen on Monday ?  It isn't clear. What is clear is while the legal stuff around masks is going it's going to still be imposed on a wide scale regardless. Travel is going to be a shitshow.  Schools are still going to be a shitshow.  Lots mate.  Monday is very very far from a return to normal and if the vaccines where not enough then what will be ? 

Stop pretending you don't know what I am going on about.  You are usually better than the rest. Its a fucking depressing outcome and I can't believe most of you really don't agree.

I guess it's come down to what you call normal and what you call freedom of choice.

Not pretending anything, genuinely didn't know. There have been doomongers on here predicting that it'd be cancelled so was wondering if you'd be in with that group. 

I still think the vaccines are the way out, but we've not finished the vaccination programme yet, so there's gains yet to come.

They're also the way out for international travel, but that requires vaccination programmes finished in the places we want to travel to also. That was always going to be the case, it's why I've never been that excited about Monday anyway because I care more about being able to see friends in Europe than going to clubs or gigs. 

Travel will be a shitshow the rest of the year but that's because that's how long a lot of the world will take to finish vaccinating.

Schools will be closed anyway, won't they?

It's difficult for me because you know my views on unlocking and that I do think it's too early but I'm looking at Monday, at the announcement the other day, and you appear to have got everything you wanted. And yet you're still unhappy? I mean it really is the worst of all worlds when the government pick the choice that makes both of us depressed!

[Toilet Duck]

14 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Glad it has because I think it’s a discussion which needs to be raised. What I’m trying to say is at this point in time it is very dangerous to focus on the fringe cases where the vaccine may not give the amount of protection that it will give to the majority of people. Soon vaccine uptake is going to tail off and slow down dramatically. I’m just getting you to please stop giving food to the anti-vaxxers. Our coverage should be focusing on the positives and the efficacy. I’m just trying to warn you that soon it’s going to become really really difficult when uptake starts to tail off.

They're not fringe cases though. The fringe cases (outliers) are the double jabbed people that have died or the double jabbed people in ICU (of which there are very few...and maybe this is under-reported, though it isn't here I should add, it was headline news last night). Double jabbed people getting mild/asymptomatic disease will become the norm (and will increase when all restriction are lifted...if we stop testing at the rate we currently are, and eventually we will, we won't even know they exist...people will just assume they have a cold). It's exactly what we want the vaccines to do. Remove the morbidity/mortality burden so we can have our lives back. I entirely agree that more positive reporting of this is required though. 

[Matt42]

4 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

It terrifies me the idea that a certain thing cannot be questioned under any circumstances, just to manipulate a certain situation 

It’s not that it shouldn’t be questioned it’s the fact that it should be balanced. Right now it’s wall to wall coverage about how the vaccines are failing against the delta variant. No coverage at all of our deaths now being “at average” way lower than influenza deaths.

The media and the focus can’t talk about anything other than doomsday. I just want to caveat that this is going to seriously backfire unless there is some more balance to the debate. 

 

When the delta variant fizzles out and a new variant comes in and vaccine uptake tails off you’re going to be wishing you weren’t being so negative when our numbers at the moment are so good.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Matt42

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

It will take years and years and maybe in all our lifetimes we will never see what was deemed normal again.

If you really think 19th July is the end then you really need a head wobble.

Anyway, love and peace y'all - if I am allowed to say that!!

ear your masks, enjoy your lives, think of others as this is not all about you - and most of all, wake up and realise we have years to go before this is 'over' and we are 'free' of it.

 

Speak for yourself. Ill be going to gigs and films asap

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

Not pretending anything, genuinely didn't know. There have been doomongers on here predicting that it'd be cancelled so was wondering if you'd be in with that group. 

I still think the vaccines are the way out, but we've not finished the vaccination programme yet, so there's gains yet to come.

They're also the way out for international travel, but that requires vaccination programmes finished in the places we want to travel to also. That was always going to be the case, it's why I've never been that excited about Monday anyway because I care more about being able to see friends in Europe than going to clubs or gigs. 

Travel will be a shitshow the rest of the year but that's because that's how long a lot of the world will take to finish vaccinating.

Schools will be closed anyway, won't they?

It's difficult for me because you know my views on unlocking and that I do think it's too early but I'm looking at Monday, at the announcement the other day, and you appear to have got everything you wanted. And yet you're still unhappy? I mean it really is the worst of all worlds when the government pick the choice that makes both of us depressed!

I think we're faced with a fair amount of uncertainty...that's the problem. Suddenly the unlocking doesn't feel so irreversible. Anyway, things are improving, and will continue to improve, but it isn't over yet and there may be bumps in the road, that's how I'm looking at it.

[Matt42]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I entirely agree that more positive reporting of this is required though. 

I hope when I comment inflammatory things you understand I’m only trying to equalise debate where I see things going too hard in one direction.

When America sneezes the world catches a cold. Soon we are going to hit a wall with vaccine uptake and we might regret some approaches we took a few months prior. I think at the moment are numbers are really good. They may get slightly worse. I don’t want people on the fence with the vaccines to get put off by constant negative reporting when things are actually in a pretty good position.

[Matt42]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Speak for yourself. Ill be going to gigs and films asap

The divide between the unlockers and lockdowners is getting so wide. Honestly feels a bit like a Brexit debate. It’s like two completely different schools of thought that can’t meet in the middle.

[DeanoL]

4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

The media and the focus can’t talk about anything other than doomsday. I just want to caveat that this is going to seriously backfire unless there is some more balance to the debate. 

Then the answer is to provide that balance with the other side of the argument, not try and shut down the side you don't like - all that does is empower the anti-vaxxers, frankly. "Look, people are saying the vaccine isn't as effective and Matt is trying to shut them up! It must be true!"

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

It’s not that it shouldn’t be questioned it’s the fact that it should be balanced. Right now it’s wall to wall coverage about how the vaccines are failing against the delta variant. No coverage at all of our deaths now being “at average” way lower than influenza deaths.

The media and the focus can’t talk about anything other than doomsday. I just want to caveat that this is going to seriously backfire unless there is some more balance to the debate. 

 

When the delta variant fizzles out and a new variant comes in and vaccine uptake tails off you’re going to be wishing you weren’t being so negative when our numbers at the moment are so good.

where are you seeing this wall to wall coverage of vaccines failing against the delta variant?

[fraybentos1]

6 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

It will take years and years and maybe in all our lifetimes we will never see what was deemed normal again.

Nothing more irritating than hyperbolic nonsense like this. It's a pandemic, we have had them before and will have them again. It will end.

[Matt42]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Then the answer is to provide that balance with the other side of the argument, not try and shut down the side you don't like - all that does is empower the anti-vaxxers, frankly. "Look, people are saying the vaccine isn't as effective and Matt is trying to shut them up! It must be true!"

Challenging people’s views is not telling people to shut up. If anything I’ve seen more aggression from people who get challenged on the view that everyone wants to continue restrictions.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Matt42

[JoeyT]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

where are you seeing this wall to wall coverage of vaccines failing against the delta variant?

I was thinking this...

We can all see the real world data that they are more than holding their own against the delta variant. 

God knows where we'd be if Delta was with us in Jan...!

[DeanoL]

 

Just now, Barry Fish said:

I think that is where we are...

No one can be happy with Monday I feel...

I would rather us stay in lockdown with masks and distancing etc if we haven't the confidence to actually unlock.

Monday is unlocking - its a fucking joke

On the other hand, all the legal restrictions are gone, there are gigs, there are festivals, there's no longer a need for social distancing in pubs... all the things needed are there, it's just a matter of people being willing to actually do or provide them.

Which was what I've been warning about for months - I think Latitude still not having sold out is a big indicator of how high demand will actually be. And I was constantly told that was crap and people are desperate to get out there and everything will be sold out and I'm weird if I choose to stay indoors... there was always more to unlocking that just dropping restrictions, you need public confidence too, and you're right we don't have that.

And without that you can't necessarily get "back to normal" anyway because you need everyone (or 90%+ of people) on board. 

[Matt42]

9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

where are you seeing this wall to wall coverage of vaccines failing against the delta variant?

funny how these headlines never focus on the success of the vaccine. Doesn’t grab people’s attention does it?
 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/13/delta-surge-could-leave-hundreds-of-thousands-with-long-covid

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/biontech-pfizer-vaccine-less-effective-at-preventing-coronavirus-cases-study/amp/

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/07/06/health/israel-pfizer-efficacy-delta-variant-intl/index.html
 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/0b3da41e-6390-4f4b-866c-da5c6aec7f5e

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/israel-confirms-vaccine-less-effective-against-delta-variant-eyes-third-dose/amp/

 

How many do I need to share? 

[jannybruck]

Talking about consumer confidence, prices have increased dramatically here in London over the past couple of months in terms of going out (I paid £7 for a bog standard lager at a boozer last week, my friend nearly £12 for a glass of wine) and I fear that, even if things are open,these places are going to struggle hugely when people realise how costly it's getting. I'm sure it's not just London that's seeing these increases.

Lockdown will have proved to a lot of people that it's relatively easy to have a great time at home with friends, and I think it might swing back that way once the novelty wears off.

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, jannybruck said:

Talking about consumer confidence, prices have increased dramatically here in London over the past couple of months in terms of going out (I paid £7 for a bog standard lager at a boozer last week, my friend nearly £12 for a glass of wine) and I fear that, even if things are open,these places are going to struggle hugely when people realise how costly it's getting. I'm sure it's not just London that's seeing these increases.

Lockdown will have proved to a lot of people that it's relatively easy to have a great time at home with friends, and I think it might swing back that way once the novelty wears off.

One would hope when they can run at full capacity again the prices will come back down although that rarely works in practice!

[Guest]

1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

Haha I can do both of those things- live in the real world and still look forward to doing one thing. To me it's not negativity, it's just reality

I don’t think you’ve been overly negative, I don’t necessarily agree with some of your stances but generally speaking you’re quite level headed with your comments and put them across in a respectful way.