When will this shit end?

[JoeyT]

4 minutes ago, st dan said:

“Poll shows 57% of Britons would scrap Christmas bubble”

What I’m finding difficult to comprehend is these 57% of people who are making Christmas plans including mixing households etc, just because they are ‘allowed’ to. If the majority of these 57% are uncomfortable in doing so and believe the risks involved are too high and would happily scrap this - then why are they waiting on Boris to tell them to do so? People are free to make their own decisions - I just find it baffling.
The majority on here who are keeping to their own households have made that decision themselves, regardless of being allowed to mix. 

Christmas isn't actually changing anything for us.

We currently see both my parents & my wife's parents on a weekly basis as they both look after our daughter when we are at work.

The only slight change is that we'll also be seeing my brother (he lives with my parents so not much of a change there in terms of transmission risk) and my wife's brother who we aren't seeing until Christmas eve (he came down from London on Sunday so isolation will be over by then)

Therefore regardless of the rules what we currently have planned won't change. 

[steviewevie]

Christmas isn't changing much for us either...we'll just continue to eat a lot, drink a lot, and watch a lot of tv...bit like we have all year.

[Fuzzy Afro]

8 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I also don't buy the Singapore stats within their segregated society. That segregated society played its part. There also seems to be a stronger resistance to covid (some immunity from SARs, perhaps?) in south Asian populations.

But also, other differences too. Summer and not winter in the first big spread is a very important one that all of the southern hemisphere benefitted from.

 

As I've said many times, the UK could have done things much better. I'm certainly not trying to stick up for Spaffer.

But it was also a not-unreasonable assumption for Spaffer to think the UK public wouldn't tolerate the sorts of measures that authoritarian regimes such as in Singapore were able to implement.

(and the public here? They've been shit too. Who the fuck travels abroad during a pandemic?)

yep, one of the UK choices was covid or food riots.

 

What? There was a global pandemic as recently as 2009 and as far as I can remember, there was little to no reduction in foreign travel.
 

Plenty of people travel abroad during pandemics, albeit this particular one has made more of a dent in international travel than historical pandemics.

 

The weather in this country mandates global travel. If we had Spanish or Portuguese weather in the summer then travel would be pretty much optional but we don’t, so not travelling is a pretty severe impediment to mental health. I’ve not been abroad this year but I 100% am next summer, even if it means having to self quarantine on return. 

[zahidf]

 

[Guest]

Didn’t Robert Jenrick break lockdown back in the beginning?

[Fuzzy Afro]

15 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Didn’t Robert Jenrick break lockdown back in the beginning?

He was seen visiting his parents 40 miles away however he said that he went to deliver food and medicine as they were shielding, which was allowed. 

[Copperface]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

He was seen visiting his parents 40 miles away however he said that he went to deliver food and medicine as they were shielding, which was allowed. 

Not the whole story....ie wrong.

"Downing Street last month backed Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick, who travelled 150 miles from London to a property he owns in rural Herefordshire.

Days after chairing a government news conference in Westminster to reinforce the "stay at home" message, Mr Jenrick appeared on Sky News via video link from the seventeenth century manor house he owns in the hamlet of Eye.

This is despite the Nottinghamshire MP's website stating his family live 120 miles away in his constituency of Newark, as well as in London."

[Copperface]

Total vaccinations completed in first seven days throughout the whole of the UK:

137,897

 

 

 

[xxialac]

On 11/19/2020 at 8:21 PM, incident said:

It's not the same scale, but it's certainly comparable. Given the resources being allocated, I suspect the bottleneck is likely to be vaccine supply rather than the ability to deliver it.

So - in a typical year (ie not this year) - approximately 15 million people would receive the flu vaccine over the space of about 8 weeks in October and November. This happens without causing significant strain on services, and without anywhere near the level of priority, attention, and funding that a COVID vaccine rollout is being given. While I've not seen any numbers for this year, the government said they wanted to increase that to 30m this year. I doubt they'll actually hit that, but from what I've heard the main problems have been about supply rather than capacity to carry it out and the number should still be way up on last year.

On that basis, it's reasonable to assume that if a vaccine is available (and can be manufactured in sufficient quantities) that can use the same infrastructure / people (which the Oxford one can), then it should be possible able to deliver well over 30 million shots by about Easter without extra resource. Add in extra resources (as provided for by the bill passed a couple months back that allows more people including medical students to deliver the shot) then it's not unrealistic to deliver a shot to every adult in the country by Easter.

That's ignoring and completely separate to the dedicated vaccination centres that every PCT has been asked to set up by the start of December, and that are seemingly designed for a rollout of the Pfizer vaccine - once those are in place they should create capacity for at minimum a million or so doses a week and if things work out a lot more than that - though obviously that's a lot more untested.

I increasingly get the impression that we're going to end up with 2 independent vaccination programmes running in parallel - the Oxford one using the same people and places that provided the flu vaccine over the past few weeks, and the Pfizer one using the dedicated centres. I wouldn't be surprised if a designation is made along the lines of Oxford goes to age range X, Pfizer to age range Y - with the effect that a lot of people not on the priority list get offered a shot sooner than some on the priority list do (as they're waiting on the other vaccine).

So much for all adults by Easter according to the National Audit Office...

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/half-of-uk-could-have-to-wait-until-2022-for-covid-19-vaccine/

[DeanoL]

10 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

Actually on this compliance thing- surely when the vast majority are completely fine after mixing at Christmas they will be more likely to break the rules again because of that?

In a normal year after over-indulging at Christmas, people tend to go out less in January to pubs, restaurants etc. And those places don't expect much trade so can cope more easily with being closed. I think that's the hope.

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

we don't know if the herd immunity idea was from Cummings...right? Probably came from people in sage?

We don't know but it's very much a Cummings-sort of idea. Different to what everyone else is doing. Technically looks like it works on paper. Utterly unachievable in practice.

1 hour ago, st dan said:

“Poll shows 57% of Britons would scrap Christmas bubble”

What I’m finding difficult to comprehend is these 57% of people who are making Christmas plans including mixing households etc, just because they are ‘allowed’ to. If the majority of these 57% are uncomfortable in doing so and believe the risks involved are too high and would happily scrap this - then why are they waiting on Boris to tell them to do so? People are free to make their own decisions - I just find it baffling.
The majority on here who are keeping to their own households have made that decision themselves, regardless of being allowed to mix. 

Most of those 57% of people believe that *they* can be trusted to see family safely over Christmas, because they will "isolate" beforehand (work from home for a few days), they'll open a window, or just generally "we don't see many people so it'll be fine". Even if the rules change, they will probably still break them as they know they can be safe.

Those 57% of people believe most other people can't be trusted, and won't do it safely, and are out seeing people every day (probably at the supermarket or factory in which they work) and if they're allowed to do what they want, it'll be a disaster.

Everyone thinks they're the exception, or that their industry should be allowed to open because it's really important. That their thing should be allowed to happen. While happily saying everywhere else should close. You even see it here and will do more next year as people argue for Glastonbury to go ahead.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

So much for all adults by Easter according to the National Audit Office...

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/half-of-uk-could-have-to-wait-until-2022-for-covid-19-vaccine/

It was never all adults though.All over 50's + vulnerable? certianly

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Not the whole story....ie wrong.

"Downing Street last month backed Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick, who travelled 150 miles from London to a property he owns in rural Herefordshire.

Days after chairing a government news conference in Westminster to reinforce the "stay at home" message, Mr Jenrick appeared on Sky News via video link from the seventeenth century manor house he owns in the hamlet of Eye.

This is despite the Nottinghamshire MP's website stating his family live 120 miles away in his constituency of Newark, as well as in London."

Thanks for posting an accurate account of what happened, I was being lazy 😆

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

It was never all adults though.All over 50's + vulnerable? certianly

I'm just referring to what @incident posted here a few weeks back when the debate was raging.

[incident]

3 minutes ago, xxialac said:

So much for all adults by Easter according to the National Audit Office...

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/half-of-uk-could-have-to-wait-until-2022-for-covid-19-vaccine/

"More than half of the UK population could have to wait until 2022 to get the coronavirus vaccine, the National Audit Office (NAO) has said."

Actually, no, they didn't say anything remotely like that.

LBC have taken a number out of context, and used it to justify a headline of their own invention.

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Total vaccinations completed in first seven days throughout the whole of the UK:

137,897

 

 

 

Thats very good so far for a week with limited places offering it

[Copperface]

4 minutes ago, incident said:

"More than half of the UK population could have to wait until 2022 to get the coronavirus vaccine, the National Audit Office (NAO) has said."

Actually, no, they didn't say anything remotely like that.

LBC have taken a number out of context, and used it to justify a headline of their own invention.

Yeah, but  eleventyhundred billion thousand vaccinations per week at Ashton Gate alone and the one million per week NHS target needs to be 'put to bed'. 

[MrBarry465]

6 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Yeah, but  eleventyhundred billion thousand vaccinations per week at Ashton Gate alone and the one million per week NHS target needs to be 'put to bed'. 

 

Yeah agree with this, the vaccine is not being admistered by robots - it's a fragile process.

[MrBarry465]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

 

But it was also a not-unreasonable assumption for Spaffer to think the UK public wouldn't tolerate the sorts of measures that authoritarian regimes such as in Singapore were able to implement.

(and the public here? They've been shit too. Who the fuck travels abroad during a pandemic?)

 

 

I don't necessarily agree with that, as for the most part Australia has a pretty similar demographic/ideaology to the UK and the measures here were incredibly strict. There was not some mass uprising like many have said would happen. People don't have the stomach for it and for the most part, accept that the measures are needed.

The messaging starts at the top ultimatley and the pissweak failings by the govenrment filtered down.

Although I do agree the British publics insistance on travelling on such a weird timeline was baffling. People should be looking for reasons to take less flights a year anyway.

Edited December 16, 2020 by MrBarry465

[Copperface]

14 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Thats very good so far for a week with limited places offering it

Think you've just proved my point.

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Think you've just proved my point.

Its clearly going to increase massively once the GP's start offering it and the Ashton gate style places open up with Oxford vaccine e.t.c

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Its clearly going to increase massively once the GP's start offering it and the Ashton gate style places open up with Oxford vaccine e.t.c

unless they fuck it up

[zahidf]

Just now, steviewevie said:

unless they fuck it up

Well yes. true of everything planned though!

[Copperface]

Just now, zahidf said:

Its clearly going to increase massively once the GP's start offering it and the Ashton gate style places open up with Oxford vaccine e.t.c

Of course it is. 

But not in time for Easter, or even summer, given the logistics/delivery scales etc - add into that some element of vaccine hesitancy, as it is now known, and staffing restrictions etc. Of course it's going to increase but the NHS target of one million peer week still stands. As a target.

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Of course it is. 

But not in time for Easter, or even summer, given the logistics/delivery scales etc - add into that some element of vaccine hesitancy, as it is now known, and staffing restrictions etc. Of course it's going to increase but the NHS target of one million peer week still stands. As a target.

I havent really seen vaccine hesitancy to enough of a degree other than on social media loudmouths. People are taking up the appointments as far as i can see

 

way to early to confidently say that about Easter. 

[FestivalJamie]

34 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Total vaccinations completed in first seven days throughout the whole of the UK:

137,897

 

 

 

That’s really good, more than I was expecting per week, so well done NHS!