Brexit at Glasto?

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

That’s never been their intent. They just want to win the vote first.

Polling is quite weird on this too. A lot of remainers are saying they would vote leave to pollsters as they simply think the original result should be respected, and there shouldn’t be another referendum. If there actually was another referendum, that would be quite different (as it would be as “legit” as the first).

 

Yup.

And I'd like to hope that even if the leavers choose to boycott a 2nd vote, that remain is able to get more votes than leave got in the 1st ref. That would help to legitimise a changed outcome.

[eFestivals]

10 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Does that actually apply if we choose an off the shelf model like Norway?

yes, because we cannot negotiate a non-member trade deal until we are no longer a member.

[Homer]

Bit pissed off Benn's amendment narrowly lost.

Surely running through the options with indicative votes is an obvious way of moving things forward.

[Homer]

Brexit delay approved - 412 to 202.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Homer said:

Brexit delay approved - 412 to 202.

yup - provisionally for Glasto Sunday, dependent on whether May can get her deal thru on a 3rd vote.

Otherwise longer.

It'll be longer.  

[shoptildrop]

Just now, eFestivals said:

yup - provisionally for Glasto Sunday, dependent on whether May can get her deal thru on a 3rd vote.

Otherwise longer.

It'll be longer.  

Do you think the EU will agree to a longer delay? As saw something earlier about 2 years delay being banded about

[eFestivals]

Just now, shoptildrop said:

Do you think the EU will agree to a longer delay? As saw something earlier about 2 years delay being banded about

yeah, they're quite happy to agree a longer delay - tho a longer delay with a purpose.

I guess the next step of the HoC is to agree what the purpose of the delay should be.

[shoptildrop]

Just now, eFestivals said:

yeah, they're quite happy to agree a longer delay - tho a longer delay with a purpose.

I guess the next step of the HoC is to agree what the purpose of the delay should be.

Yeah and that will be fun listening to that one!! It's like watching the muppet show ?

[Keithy]

Doesn't May still need to bring legislation forward to change the leaving date from March 29th and get the EU to agree a delay? All within 15 days?

I think she's running the clock down and say My Deal or No Deal. Parliament has just voted down the chance of indicative votes to look at other options. I still think we crash out in 15 days.

[eFestivals]

Just now, Keithy said:

Doesn't May still need to bring legislation forward to change the leaving date from March 29th and get the EU to agree a delay? All within 15 days?

May proposed the delay vote, so presumably she's going to act on it - which means changing the UK legislation should happen OK (and of course there's the votes to get it thru, as the vote just now proves).

It might be a bit tougher agreeing a purpose for the delay with the EU, but she's going to have to agree to something to keep them happy. I don't really see it as a problem.

We still have the problem of resolving the brexit problem, of course.  

[Keithy]

10 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

May proposed the delay vote, so presumably she's going to act on it

Well quite but after last nights fiasco of whipping against her own bill...

Am I right in thinking that if May was to dig her heels in and run the clock down then we leave on the 29th with no deal? Because only May can bring forward the legislation to change that? Nobody else can table a legislative bill?

The Tories can't remove her due to her 1 year no confidence safety net, so it'd have to be another no confidence motion in the government by the opposition and May to lose that vote so that someone else can try and create a government by 29th, bring the legislation, etc, etc.

Edited March 14, 2019 by Keithy

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Keithy said:

Well quite but after last nights fiasco of whipping against her own bill...

Am I right in thinking that if May was to dig her heels in and run the clock down then we leave on the 29th with no deal? Because only May can bring forward the legislation to change that? Nobody else can table a legislative bill?

that's how it normally works, yup.

I get the feeling that Bercow would allow something different to happen on the basis of the votes that have happened, but what I'm not sure.

May's primary objective seems to be holding the tory party together, and it'll split if she hard brexits while it won't split (immediately, anyway) if there's a delay. So she'll delay.

[SwedgeAntilles]

15 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

that's how it normally works, yup.

I get the feeling that Bercow would allow something different to happen on the basis of the votes that have happened, but what I'm not sure.

May's primary objective seems to be holding the tory party together, and it'll split if she hard brexits while it won't split (immediately, anyway) if there's a delay. So she'll delay.

Agreed. She'll do everything she can to stop that happening.

[zahidf]

 

Labour responsible for the extension passing..  

Edited March 14, 2019 by zahidf

[Madyaker]

The idea of brexit during Glasto makes me uneasy as I have to travel and also what effect would it likely have on the festival? The way things have gone over the last few months don't fill me with confidence that the UK gov won't be in the exact same position 3 months from now. What's going to change? Towards what end is she pushing by seeking this extension? I think she'll have a hard job to convince the EU that this isn't just kicking the can down the road.

 

You'd have to imagine that most EU leaders (bar Ireland) are pretty sick of this circus by now and just want the UK to get on with it one way or another.

Edited March 14, 2019 by Madyaker

[The Nal]

If it happens during Glasto will people from outside the UK be forced to stay on the farm like Tom Hanks in The Terminal?

Happy to do it if I can get Catherine Zeta Jones to stay in my tent from time to time. 

[clarkete]

20 minutes ago, The Nal said:

If it happens during Glasto will people from outside the UK be forced to stay on the farm like Tom Hanks in The Terminal?

I imagined like the episode of the Simpsons when they have to stay on a cruise that they all love, but after a little while supplies run out and it all goes a bit feral. 

[Ayrshire Chris]

Poster drop tomorrow, Boris and the Brexiteers playing the left field. 

[nysmaw]

I'm from the Czech Republic and #czexit as ridiculous as it is is a thing in some circles. In that sense, May's doing a brilliant job of making sure we'll never ever leave.

[Amy Lawn]

3 hours ago, The Nal said:

If it happens during Glasto will people from outside the UK be forced to stay on the farm like Tom Hanks in The Terminal?

Happy to do it if I can get Catherine Zeta Jones to stay in my tent from time to time. 

No mate we're going to kill you all and export your pelts to China as part of our amazing trade deal which will ultimately culminate in us getting the empire back. What do you think this whole endeavour has been in aid of?

[frostypaw]

6 hours ago, Scott129 said:

Is that partly because of a split in the leave vote right now though? E.g. "I wouldn't vote for Mays deal because I want no deal" but if one leave option v remain was on the ballott they would vote for the leave option. 

Pretty much - not hard when it's a choice inbetween something you're not satisfied with and a mystery union jack box that a bunch of people are angrily shouting totally contains a beachfront apartment in Malibu and a lifetime's supply of Stella

Edited March 14, 2019 by frostypaw

[Mr.Tease]

8 hours ago, The Nal said:

If it happens during Glasto will people from outside the UK be forced to stay on the farm like Tom Hanks in The Terminal?

Happy to do it if I can get Catherine Zeta Jones to stay in my tent from time to time. 

Think they'll be more like Marlon brando in apocalypse now, slowly descending into darkness the longer they're there

[Mr.Tease]

9 hours ago, eFestivals said:

May proposed the delay vote, so presumably she's going to act on it - which means changing the UK legislation should happen OK (and of course there's the votes to get it thru, as the vote just now proves).

It might be a bit tougher agreeing a purpose for the delay with the EU, but she's going to have to agree to something to keep them happy. I don't really see it as a problem.

We still have the problem of resolving the brexit problem, of course.  

Think getting a consensus in parliament for the reason for the delay could be difficult, depending on how many mps may be willing to compromise - we could have a situation where each reason gets voted down individually as different factions hold out for their preferred option. 

At the moment the options for justifying an extention seem to be:

1) accepting May's deal on the proviso she agrees and commits to negotiate a norway+ style agreement

2) accepting May's deal on the proviso there's a second referendum 

3) accepting May's deal as is with the extension mearly on the grounds of technical issues

4) we can't reach consensus for justifying the extention so it's not granted then we crash out without a deal

5) we can't reach consensus for justifying the extention, so facing crashing out without a deal mps cave and back May's deal

6) General election in May 

Can't actually decide which I think the most likely scenario is- there are quite hefty blocks opposed to each justification. Results of the referendum vote last night were worrying (large number of Labour mps strongly opposed regardless of being whipped), as was the failure of the Benn amendment.

Likely, ultimately May will try to offer a compromise that falls short of full Norway + if mps refuse to cave in, so agreeing some sort of customs union but not free market membership. That might stand a chance, with labour backing it but then failing to get the numbers for a confirmation referendum. 

At the moment though she does actually hold all the cards - she'll likely only ask for an extension on technical grounds for her deal, EU will make that provisional on her deal passing, she'll then go back to parliament and threaten them with either accepting her deal and a short extension or get no extension and crash out. 

Edited March 15, 2019 by Mr.Tease

[eFestivals]

11 hours ago, zahidf said:

 

Labour responsible for the extension passing..  

PMSL  

when Labour don't support something they should it's because they don't have the numbers to achieve anything. When Labour support something and it wins Labour made it happen. ( </cult>  )

Go on then, tell me how many of the victories are Corbyn's motions.

I recognise Labour have an approved strategy. I recognise that approved strategy is as sound as May's. Shit is shit.

[Scott129]

17 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

PMSL  

when Labour don't support something they should it's because they don't have the numbers to achieve anything. When Labour support something and it wins Labour made it happen. ( </cult>  )

Go on then, tell me how many of the victories are Corbyn's motions.

I recognise Labour have an approved strategy. I recognise that approved strategy is as sound as May's. Shit is shit.

Even if every labour mp (even the ones opposed fo a second referendum) had voted for it last night, it still would have lost. That would then have been good justification for taking second referendum off the table. 

I understand completely why you want a second referendum but the numbers simply aren't there (at the moment at least) and theres nothing Corbyn can do about that.

Edited March 15, 2019 by Scott129