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kalifire

Brexit at Glasto?

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1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

I'm a Labour (and Corbyn) supporter but I've never got why the Tories seem to assume they'll lose an election- I do think they have a pretty good shot at winning one.

The thing is, even if there is another minority gvt, all parties will have to have re-clarified their positions in the election, so MPs have less ground to rebel vs their parties line after the election, so I think there's a higher chance of something passing. Plus the options by then will be essentially May's deal vs no deal as there will be no more scope for an extension.

I think its more the consequence of losing that frighten them than the probability. 

And I take your point, but I think a lot of mps will stand locally on their opinion on brexit. E.g. Peoples vote tories/labour will say they will back a referendum regardless of the outcome

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1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

really can't see why it would. It's all the baggage of the EU without any of the influence, and gives neither remainers or leavers anything of what they want.

Whether it is a good deal or not is one thing, but most MPs are from leave voting constituencies and want to vote through a deal. I think if you took say 150/200 of Mays mps who would likely vote it through (minus the ERG snd other hard brexiteers) plus the vast majority of Labours mps then you'd get a majority. 

Obviously thats on the condition of May backing it, which won't happen but my point is its the only deal with a chance of getting through Parliament 

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So looks like no general election necessary. likely her statement tonight will be some sort of threat (either no deal, or her resigning or whatever unless her deal is voted for.)

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46 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

I wish just one person could explain to a political layman like me just WTF is going on. I've yet to hear from anyone, politician, analyst, journalist, geezer in the street who can give me (impartial) facts rather than opinions. I suppose it's such an unprecedented situation that no one actually knows! And for me that's been the problem since day feckin one. 

We're all fucked.

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2 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Whether it is a good deal or not is one thing, but most MPs are from leave voting constituencies and want to vote through a deal.

the WA is the same whether May is PM or Corbyn is PM.

If they can't vote it thru for May they can't vote it thru for Corbyn.

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2 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

So looks like no general election necessary. likely her statement tonight will be some sort of threat (either no deal, or her resigning or whatever unless her deal is voted for.)

that tweet is factually incorrect.

The EU ruled out a *short* deal unless May's deal is voted thru.

The point is, a long delay is still available if there's another plan for progress.

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Just now, eFestivals said:

that tweet is factually incorrect.

The EU ruled out a *short* deal unless May's deal is voted thru.

The point is, a long delay is still available if there's another plan for progress.

which is another issue in itself 

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2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the WA is the same whether May is PM or Corbyn is PM.

If they can't vote it thru for May they can't vote it thru for Corbyn.

Yes but you would amend the WA to include a permanent customs union which would take enough labour mps on board to get it through. Barnier and Tusk have both said they think that is a sensible solution to the problem and something the EU would support. 

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1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

that tweet is factually incorrect.

The EU ruled out a *short* deal unless May's deal is voted thru.

The point is, a long delay is still available if there's another plan for progress.

That’s what I understand.  If for instance there is another deal, ie customs union , then a longer extension might be granted. 

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3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

that tweet is factually incorrect.

The EU ruled out a *short* deal unless May's deal is voted thru.

The point is, a long delay is still available if there's another plan for progress.

The EU have consistently throughout this processs gone back on what they've said to try to get Mays deal through. They said before MV1 that they wouldnt reopen negotiations but then did (and said theyd add in a permanent customs union). They've also said they wouldn't extend a few times. 

All just a poker face. If Mays deal is voted down and she then resigns/calls an election the EU would 100% extend art 50 to avoid a no deal

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16 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Yes but you would amend the WA to include a permanent customs union

not legally-technically possible.

The future trade relationship can only be negotiated once the UK is a non-member. 

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16 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

 If for instance there is another deal, ie customs union , then ...

that changes nothing in itself. 

Things only change if there's an idea *with support*.

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Just now, eFestivals said:

not legally-technically possible.

The future trade relationship can only be negotiated once the UK is a non-member. 

Fair point, the political declaration then. The point is if a permanent customs union was backed I think it would get through

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4 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Fair point, the political declaration then. The point is if a permanent customs union was backed I think it would get through

I really really don't.

We are where we are because most MPs don't want to be responsible for *any* decision, because they know that all the choices are bad choices which will come back on them.

They're happy enough to put a decision back to 'the people' where they can't be blamed for the choice or the consequences.

And a Norway/Norway+ agreement doesn't resolve a thing, doesn't put brexit to bed one way or another. It just starts off the fight for a 'proper' brexit and it's not something that'll be easily given up (and is part of what MPs fear will come back on them).

Edited by eFestivals

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I thought id drop in on this thread as it seems that there is less drama then the fatboy slim one :) 

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30 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

that tweet is factually incorrect.

The EU ruled out a *short* deal unless May's deal is voted thru.

The point is, a long delay is still available if there's another plan for progress.

Yep, but the EU have obviously decided to try and help her out with all the tough talk and pretence that it's her deal or no deal, let's hope MPs don't fall for it.

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2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I really really don't.

We are where we are because most MPs don't want to be responsible for *any* decision, because they know that all the choices are bad choices which will come back on them.

They're happy enough to put a decision back to 'the people' where they can't be blamed for the choice or the consequences.

And a Norway/Norway+ agreement doesn't resolve a thing, doesn't put brexit to bed one way or another. It just starts off the fight for a 'proper' brexit and it's not something that'll be easily given up (and is part of what MPs fear will come back on them).

Labours brexit deal got 240 votes (without tory support). Do you honestly think if May backed it it wouldn't get the 86 mps it would need? That would only require 1/3 of those who voted for Mays deal last time to vote for it

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9 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Yep, but the EU have obviously decided to try and help her out with all the tough talk and pretence that it's her deal or no deal, let's hope MPs don't fall for it.

i reckon that could be read just as much to be about getting them off the table forever, rather than making them the only options.

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24 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

that changes nothing in itself. 

Things only change if there's an idea *with support*.

I see that, the whole situation is now so fluid. 

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47 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the WA is the same whether May is PM or Corbyn is PM.

I don't agree. The EU have made made warm noises towards Corbyn's Brexit plan, and I think if there was a change of government, they'd be open to change the WA, providing that would suit them more.

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10 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Labours brexit deal got 240 votes (without tory support). Do you honestly think if May backed it it wouldn't get the 86 mps it would need? That would only require 1/3 of those who voted for Mays deal last time to vote for it

If Corbyn is playing the cunning plan his supporters want to claim he is, it's a deal he's offered up only because he knows the tories could never accept it.

If Corbyn isn't playing a cunning plan he's queuing up to have Labour own brexit and all the consequences of it.

If it's the 2nd it might get thru the HoC, but doesn't pan out in any good way for labour or for what happens going forwards. 

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Just now, kalifire said:

I don't agree. The EU have made made warm noises towards Corbyn's Brexit plan, and I think if there was a change of government, they'd be open to change the WA, providing that would suit them more.

what do you think they'd change in the WA?

Would they give us our money back? Nope.
Would the terms change? Nope, they've said many times they wouldn't.
Would there be a backstop? Yep, because legally/technically there cannot be a Customs Union until after the WA is enacted.

They've only said the future trade relationship can be stated as more ambitious in the political declaration - but that's not binding on either side, and a CU is possible with May's deal.

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3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

If Corbyn is playing the cunning plan his supporters want to claim he is, it's a deal he's offered up only because he knows the tories could never accept it.

If Corbyn isn't playing a cunning plan he's queuing up to have Labour own brexit and all the consequences of it.

If it's the 2nd it might get thru the HoC, but doesn't pan out in any good way for labour or for what happens going forwards. 

I don't think he's playing a plan at all. He's just offered up what he believes is a fair brexit compromise (I know you don't agree that it is, although i personally do). And its one that could command the support of the commons, when no other form of brexit or remain seems to be able to. 

I'm not sure what is best for labour 'tactically', the seats they need to win are leave seats so to back a second referendum wouldn't be good for them. I think tactically labour are better hoping the election is a year or two after we've left when it can dictate what the election is about

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7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

If Corbyn is playing the cunning plan his supporters want to claim he is, it's a deal he's offered up only because he knows the tories could never accept it.

If Corbyn isn't playing a cunning plan he's queuing up to have Labour own brexit and all the consequences of it.

If it's the 2nd it might get thru the HoC, but doesn't pan out in any good way for labour or for what happens going forwards. 

That's a big reason for there being no solution so far- everyone wants someone else to implement a solution so it can pass, but they can oppose it and not be held responsible for it (even May probably wants parliament to make her deal change). Think a commentator said because of this, if the votes were anonymous you'd of seen much different results (and probably months ago!). At this point most MPs would probably be delighted if May's deal gets voted through but only if they can bee seen voting against it.

I do think Corbyn does genuinely favour a soft brexit, Norway style, but I think Kier Starmer, John McDonnell and quite a few others see it mainly as pushing something May won't agree to for strategic purposes

 

Edited by Mr.Tease

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1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

That's a big reason for there being no solution so far- everyone wants someone else to implement a solution so it can pass, but they can oppose it and not be held responsible for it (even May probably wants parliament to make her deal change). Think a commentator said because of this, if the votes were anonymous you'd of seen much different results (and probably months ago!). At this point most MPs would probably be delighted if May's deal gets voted through but only if they can bee seen voting against it.

 

which is why I think another public vote is the only solution - for 'the people' to take that decision off MPs.

I'd be hoping it comes out as remain, but I'm perfectly happy to accept the democratic legitimacy of a brexit plan that has actually been voted for (even no-deal), rather than the 'win' of voting for unobtainable unicorns which was June 2016.

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