Brexit at Glasto?

[MJP]

12 minutes ago, JMDS said:

Be the same as 2016 all over again I awoke to people crying very loud!

 

Jeremy corbyn was supposed to be doing his bit in 16 but apparently more important things cropped up!  

I shall make sure my last 24 hours as an EU citizen is a good one.

Brexit tequila to hand.

[JMDS]

3 minutes ago, MJP said:

I shall make sure my last 24 hours as an EU citizen is a good one.

Brexit tequila to hand.

You’ll be taxed to the eyeballs on your illegal EU tequila! 

 

Brexit will fade out to dance magic dance!  

[MJP]

Just now, JMDS said:

You’ll be taxed to the eyeballs on your illegal EU tequila! 

 

Brexit will fade out to dance magic dance!  

Christ. This comedown will be the worst.

[bombfrog]

2 minutes ago, JMDS said:

You’ll be taxed to the eyeballs on your illegal EU tequila! 

And don't bring it in a glass bottle, or a single use plastic one.

[JMDS]

Just now, bombfrog said:

And don't bring it in a glass bottle, or a single use plastic one.

Bring it Rees Mogg’s hair!  He looks like a tequila haired remainer  

[Ayrshire Chris]

[zero000]

Think the ERG may have realised they've shot themselves in the foot in rejecting May's deal. Practically frothing at the mouth.

[Wooderson]

Let’s see does this dummy Corbyn take the bait. Fate of the Left at stake. No pressure you twat.

[Madyaker]

Well I have to admit I didn't see this one coming! What does she expect her and Corbyn will be able to hammer out? Im hoping no matter what he agrees to it has to be put to a peoples vote. 

Edited April 2, 2019 by Madyaker

[Madyaker]

Edited April 3, 2019 by Madyaker

[eFestivals]

10 hours ago, JMDS said:

Be the same as 2016 all over again I awoke to people crying very loud!

there was a souple in the CV fields who packed and went home early on Friday - not because of the ref being lost, but because Cameron resigned.  :wacko: 

 

10 hours ago, JMDS said:

Jeremy corbyn was supposed to be doing his bit in 16 but apparently more important things cropped up!  

yep, a 6 day holiday. Isn't it great that he cared so much?  

[eFestivals]

6 hours ago, Madyaker said:

Well I have to admit I didn't see this one coming! What does she expect her and Corbyn will be able to hammer out? Im hoping no matter what he agrees to it has to be put to a peoples vote. 

worth reading, this shows what May's first plan is to screw Jez.
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/04/02/no-10-statement-look-out-for-theresa-may-s-no-deal-trap

The fall-back is to blame Labour for a delay if there's going to be another delay, so the tories can proclaim themselves the true faces of brexit and Labour the wreckers ... but I reckon things have moved on too much for that one to have much to it.

[whitehorses]

40 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

worth reading, this shows what May's first plan is to screw Jez.
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/04/02/no-10-statement-look-out-for-theresa-may-s-no-deal-trap

The fall-back is to blame Labour for a delay if there's going to be another delay, so the tories can proclaim themselves the true faces of brexit and Labour the wreckers ... but I reckon things have moved on too much for that one to have much to it.

Yeah, that’s the plan, but most sensible people know by now that both parties are  culpable and incompetent on these - and maybe all - matters. 

The sooner May and Corbyn screw each other into oblivion the better. Ctrl, Alt, Delete and reboot with some sensible people. 

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, caballosblancos said:

The sooner May and Corbyn screw each other into oblivion the better. Ctrl, Alt, Delete and reboot with some sensible people. 

that would be great but it's these people who are going to sort out brexit. 

And with Jez's vanity combined with his want of brexit I'm scared.  

[jparx]

I think this is the nail in the coffin for the people's vote/no Brexit. May knows exactly what Corbyn's position is, so if she's offering to meet she's clearly wiling to meet some of his demands. I think Corbyn will jump at the chance of securing a softer Brexit and then it's game over. He will see it as pleasing both sides of Labour voters, but in reality he's pissing them all off. 

[hurdy]

55 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

worth reading, this shows what May's first plan is to screw Jez.
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/04/02/no-10-statement-look-out-for-theresa-may-s-no-deal-trap

The fall-back is to blame Labour for a delay if there's going to be another delay, so the tories can proclaim themselves the true faces of brexit and Labour the wreckers ... but I reckon things have moved on too much for that one to have much to it.

That's proper given me the willies reading that. 

How much hope can I have that if a political commentator has spotted it then so have all of May's opponents? 

[eFestivals]

13 minutes ago, hurdy said:

That's proper given me the willies reading that. 

How much hope can I have that if a political commentator has spotted it then so have all of May's opponents? 

I spotted it before I'd read that article (that article explains it better than I've managed to do). And i'm sure the EU have spotted it too, but I don't doubt these things were tory expectations. 

If the EU refuse that extension (and they probably will) then May can blame the EU for either (depending which way she jumps) causing a hard brexit when she (supposedly) had a plan to avoid it, or for forcing her to take a long extension she didn't want. There's also the "it's all Corbyn's fault" plan attached to it all too.

These things work for deflecting the blame for a no-deal, a long extension, a GE, or another ref: 'the tories are the party of brexit, and it's the wreckers in Labour and the EU who have caused this'.

It's quite transparent, and because much more of the country is following things than is normal for politics, and polling suggest opinion changing around all of these options,  it's probably not going to work as well as the tories are thinking.

My biggest worry right now is that Corbyn will fuck it up because he's loving the limelight.

[whitehorses]

30 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

that would be great but it's these people who are going to sort out brexit. 

And with Jez's vanity combined with his want of brexit I'm scared.  

Yes perfect way to put it. May is stoic/masochistic to the point of absurdity and Corbyn is vainly in awe of his own non-positions. 

[Mr.Tease]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I spotted it before I'd read that article (that article explains it better than I've managed to do). And i'm sure the EU have spotted it too, but I don't doubt these things were tory expectations. 

If the EU refuse that extension (and they probably will) then May can blame the EU for either (depending which way she jumps) causing a hard brexit when she (supposedly) had a plan to avoid it, or for forcing her to take a long extension she didn't want. There's also the "it's all Corbyn's fault" plan attached to it all too.

These things work for deflecting the blame for a no-deal, a long extension, a GE, or another ref: 'the tories are the party of brexit, and it's the wreckers in Labour and the EU who have caused this'.

It's quite transparent, and because much more of the country is following things than is normal for politics, and polling suggest opinion changing around all of these options,  it's probably not going to work as well as the tories are thinking.

My biggest worry right now is that Corbyn will fuck it up because he's loving the limelight.

Doubt it- I think the benefit of these talks are that they will reveal that now, any form of softer brexit isn't actually an option, as anything agreed regarding the political declaration, can just be ripped up by May's successor (her saying she'll go once her deal is passed was a huge mistake in that regard), because it doesn't carry the same weight as the backstop (which has to be passed first) . I've only just twigged on this, so I'm running a bit slow!

So as well as having to actually agree a compromise (good luck!) even if you manage that, you then have to fathom out how to actually guarantee it, and as far as I can see, I don't get how that's possible if you have to pass May's deal first. Even if parliament passed it on the provision the government seeks x, once it's passed, it can't be un-passed (as it becomes part of an international treaty, of which only the backstop bit is ratified on the EU side), unless I'm misunderstanding law (perfectly possible!).

It's another necessary path you have to go down to get rid of options. Essentially we're heading to binary choice of no deal or revoke.

[Mr.Tease]

38 minutes ago, jparx said:

I think this is the nail in the coffin for the people's vote/no Brexit. May knows exactly what Corbyn's position is, so if she's offering to meet she's clearly wiling to meet some of his demands. I think Corbyn will jump at the chance of securing a softer Brexit and then it's game over. He will see it as pleasing both sides of Labour voters, but in reality he's pissing them all off. 

Even if they agreed on a softer brexit, how can they 'secure' it, though? That's the problem. It would be reliant on passing May's deal first (the binding bit regarding the backstop), but once that's in place, whoever takes over from May can then easily just rip up whatever compromise is reached (I think).

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

as anything agreed regarding the political declaration, can just be ripped up by May's successor

not correct. There's already been amendments suggested for some of the votes over past weeks of adding a clause where the future EU trade deal has to be approved by parliament, and where the PM (any PM) has to report on progress every 3 months.

So Jez might agree to a soft brexit without a confirming ref with something like that attached.

[Mr.Tease]

Just now, eFestivals said:

not correct. There's already been amendments suggested for some of the votes over past weeks of adding a clause where the future EU trade deal has to be approved by parliament, and where the PM (any PM) has to report on progress every 3 months.

So Jez might agree to a soft brexit without a confirming ref with something like that attached.

But, and again I might be wrong, once you're signed up to the backstop, you can't backtrack on that part (as that's a treaty with the EU), where as what the government is negotiating for can be changed (as it's entirely a UK matter). So while parliament might have to approve the EU trade deal, if they choose not to, then we just end up in the backstop. 

Bare in mind the chances of whoever takes over from May lasting 2 years without an election is slim, who knows what the outcome of another election would be (ERG could lead them to victory, and on a manifesto calling for as hard a brexit as the EU will allow).

[Mr.Tease]

47 minutes ago, hurdy said:

That's proper given me the willies reading that. 

How much hope can I have that if a political commentator has spotted it then so have all of May's opponents? 

Like I said yesterday, and a few commentators have also said, the obvious demonstration that it's a trick is whether Tory brexiteers resign from the cabinet. They haven't yet, doubt they will so it's obviously a con (otherwise how could they honestly allow Labour to take over brexit?)

[eFestivals]

12 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

if they choose not to, then we just end up in the backstop. 

we end up with the backstop in all scenarios except no-deal.

C'mon, we've been round this many times already.

 

12 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

(ERG could lead them to victory, and on a manifesto calling for as hard a brexit as the EU will allow).

but still subject to Parliament's approval if I clause like I said was added.

It *IS* possible to bind future PMs/govts.

[hfuhruhurr]

PMQ's today will be interesting!!

Do we think the numbers in parliament are enough for a no confidence to trigger an election?
Labour would do that if they could get the numbers.