Brexit at Glasto?

[Madyaker]

6 hours ago, eFestivals said:

worth reading, this shows what May's first plan is to screw Jez.
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/04/02/no-10-statement-look-out-for-theresa-may-s-no-deal-trap

The fall-back is to blame Labour for a delay if there's going to be another delay, so the tories can proclaim themselves the true faces of brexit and Labour the wreckers ... but I reckon things have moved on too much for that one to have much to it.

Thats a great article, very smart analysis. Honestly any future writers for political dramas are going to have their work cut out for them. How could you come with a storyline with more twists and turns than this!

[incident]

16 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Well if she won an election as PM she would stay on for longer.

Do you honestly think she wants to, at this point?

I'd imagine that by now every minute longer she stays in the job is mainly down to trying to do the best thing for her party and the country, in that order, with maybe a bit of an attempt at redeeming her reputation added in.

[Madyaker]

Honestly i think the best thing she could do to save her legacy is to revoke article 50 and resign. There is no way brexit can be acheived without damaging the U.K economy and it could easily lead to the break up of the union with Scotland and NI leaving. Most of the hardcore brexiteer voters who want a hard brexit will be dead in a few years anyway. Plus, no matter what withdrawal agreement they come to (if they do) no tradedeal that the U.K can negotiate with the E.U will be as good as the one Britian now has as a member, that's the whole point of the E.U!

Edited April 3, 2019 by Madyaker

[stuartbert two hats]

31 minutes ago, Madyaker said:

Honestly i think the best thing she could do to save her legacy is to revoke article 50 and resign. There is no way brexit can be acheived without damaging the U.K economy and it could easily lead to the break up of the union with Scotland and NI leaving. Most of the hardcore brexiteer voters who want a hard brexit will be dead in a few years anyway. Plus, no matter what withdrawal agreement they come to (if they do) no tradedeal that the U.K can negotiate with the E.U will be as good as the one Britian now has as a member, that's the whole point of the E.U!

I don't think that would work.  To avoid us leaving the EU, this needs to play out to the point of a second referendum and be rejected.  Even if Jacob Rees Mogg was in charge, if the PM unilaterally revoked Article 50, then there's a very high risk it's going to get invoked again.

[Scott129]

1 hour ago, incident said:

Do you honestly think she wants to, at this point?

I'd imagine that by now every minute longer she stays in the job is mainly down to trying to do the best thing for her party and the country, in that order, with maybe a bit of an attempt at redeeming her reputation added in.

I think its maybe 60% about trying to keep the Tory Party together and 40% about her political legacy. 0% about whats good for the country, hence why cabinet were talking about whats good for the party without mentioning whats good for the country

[Scott129]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

yep, but that's not going to happen, the tory party won't allow it.

The tories can't get rid of her till November  so there isn't a lot they could do to stop it. They could vote against an election to stop May getting the 2/3 vote needed, but politically it is very very difficult to vote against facing your voters. 

I don't think its likely, May knows it would split the party. But members of her staff have seemingly been advocating it and I believe if it came down to GE/Second Ref she'd opt for an election.

[eFestivals]

Just now, Scott129 said:

The tories can't get rid of her till November  so there isn't a lot they could do to stop it.

you're making the mistake of thinking the tory party works by democracy. It doesn't; if 'the men in grey suits' tell her it's time to go, it's time to go.

Those are the same geezers who made her leader in the first place, when they told Loathsome she had to withdraw.

 

Just now, Scott129 said:

They could vote against an election to stop May getting the 2/3 vote needed, but politically it is very very difficult to vote against facing your voters. 

that's as likely to happen as Labour voting against holding an EU referendum in 2015. 

It's never a good look to say you don't trust the voters - which is another reason why I think May can reconcile herself to another ref.

[Scott129]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

you're making the mistake of thinking the tory party works by democracy. It doesn't; if 'the men in grey suits' tell her it's time to go, it's time to go.

Perhaps I am, but how would they go about doing this? i know some are trying to get the 1922 rules changed so they can no confidence her earlier, but I'm not sure how that is actually done

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Perhaps I am, but how would they go about doing this? i know some are trying to get the 1922 rules changed so they can no confidence her earlier, but I'm not sure how that is actually done

they invite her into a room and tell her it's time to go. And she obeys, because they're all servants of the party.

It's archaic but it's what happens.

[Scott129]

Sources are saying the 4 options for indicative votes (should negotiations fail today) will be: May deal, Labours deal, revoke article 50, no deal (no second referendum option). 

Using AV so that one definitely gets a majority

[stuartbert two hats]

A Brexit minister has resigned.  I love the way he scrawled "Prime Minister" in crayon at the top:

 

 

[hurdy]

 

This is brilliant

Edited April 3, 2019 by hurdy
Finally embedded it

[DeanoL]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

they invite her into a room and tell her it's time to go. And she obeys, because they're all servants of the party.

It's archaic but it's what happens.

Surely they already have? After the election? Surely?

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Surely they already have? After the election? Surely?

Clearly not, she's still there and recently survived an attempt to remove her.

[eFestivals]

12 minutes ago, hurdy said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1113432992377077760?s=19

 

This is brilliant

I have a suggestion for what they could call it.

Customs Union Not Tariffs.

  

[hurdy]

Just now, eFestivals said:

I have a suggestion for what they could call it.

Customs Union Not Tariffs.

  

I'd vote for that. Would at least get my opinion across.

[Mr.Tease]

One thing I find weird is how little any brexit voting person cared that May's deal ended freedom of movement- immigration was all they used to bang on about before brexit, and seemed to be the reason for many of them voting for it. Seems like the immigration obsession has been replaced by a "take back control" obsession, though they cry when said UK institutions 'take back control'.

You would have thought May would have made a much bigger song and dance about it, but it seems the ERG got the jump on her deal when it was first finalised and set the narrative from day 1.

 

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

One thing I find weird is how little any brexit voting person cared that May's deal ended freedom of movement- immigration was all they used to bang on about before brexit, and seemed to be the reason for many of them voting for it. Seems like the immigration obsession has been replaced by a "take back control" obsession, though they cry when said UK institutions 'take back control'.

You would have thought May would have made a much bigger song and dance about it, but it seems the ERG got the jump on her deal when it was first finalised and set the narrative from day 1.

 

You're right. It's become about brexit itself and "respecting the vote" and not anything that brexit might actually deliver.

Perhaps it's because plenty of brexiters are following a narrative being set by secretive business interests who are looking to profit from brexit, who need them to unite around an idea otherwise brexit will be lost? 
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/03/grassroots-facebook-brexit-ads-secretly-run-by-staff-of-lynton-crosby-firm

[Mr.Tease]

 

Not good, though it does annoy me how the north and working class gets all the flack for brexit, while those living in the south and the middle class who voted brexit never seem to get a mention!

I think the PV campaign have been good at radicalising their base, but it's like they've made no attempt to persuade anyone else

[Mr.Tease]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

You're right. It's become about brexit itself

So May was actually right all along when she said "Brexit means brexit" ?

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

 

Not good

definitely not good, but there'll be a reason why those specific figures have been presented. My take is to scare the shit out of remainers (with London included to give an illusion of balance).

Other polling has been more positive.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

So May was actually right all along when she said "Brexit means brexit" ?

yeah, probably.  

It's major problem all the way thru has been it being an indefinable thing.

[Mr.Tease]

Just now, eFestivals said:

definitely not good, but there'll be a reason why those specific figures have been presented. My take is to scare the shit out of remainers (with London included to give an illusion of balance).

Other polling has been more positive.

It has, but this poll is YouGov, who up until now have been commissioned by PV and I think TIG folk, so it seems like they were on remainers side.

[whitehorses]

42 minutes ago, hurdy said:

 

This is brilliant

?

[eFestivals]

7 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

It has, but this poll is YouGov, who up until now have been commissioned by PV and I think TIG folk, so it seems like they were on remainers side.

but regions don't count for shit. It's only the UK total which counts.

What's the UK total in that poll?