Are we In or Out?

[clarkete]

3 minutes ago, Tyonks said:

Ha true,

Don't get me wrong I hate them as much as the next guy, but EU is also full of people in the pockets of millionaires, only difference is that they're virtually untouchable. 

And just think, if we left the EU, what would be the point of UKIP? Farage would just go back to being the weird crank getting sloshed at the bar on a Monday afternoon, rather than being hailed as a hero for it. 

Well the people in the eu are funded by the taxes of the citizens and whether they act like it or not, the MEPs are elected via our votes. 

I see the Farage aspect entirely opposite to you.  If we leave, he gets carried aloft to the pub and hailed as a hero.  If he loses, he can drink himself to death in the pub whilst complaining about how he was cheated out of the result. 

There have already been murmurs that their party will disband one way or another after the referendum, but of course he's not exactly a man of his word.

[Tyonks]

16 minutes ago, clarkete said:

Well the people in the eu are funded by the taxes of the citizens and whether they act like it or not, the MEPs are elected via our votes. 

 

 

MEPs are voted, but most positions in the EU that hold real sway are appointed. 

Democracy is undermined time and time again, just look at Greece this time last year. After that referendum and the EU's refusal to accept the referendum's result, many in the left became in favour of "Brexit" as they rightly saw the EU's treatment of Greece highly undemocratic in a situation where the EU and the IMF acted as economic bullies. 

But then politics a fickle beast, just look at David Cameron and Sadiq Khan's odd relationship. 

[bunfight]

1 hour ago, Tyonks said:

Strongly leaning towards out. (Voted out in this poll) 

Still genuinely confounds me that the left is so resoundingly behind the remain vote. 

The left will always see internationalism as a more palatable solution than nationalism. Based on centuries of experience.  

Nobody on the left by the way (including Corbyn) thinks for a minute that the EU is the answer to anything. It's simply a vehicle to better things than the xenophobia that is behind Brexit.  At the end of the day, fear of immigrants is what is really driving the 'out' agenda, no matter how much people try to dress it up as an economic argument. 

 

Edited May 31, 2016 by bunfight

[bunfight]

I

Edited May 31, 2016 by bunfight

[DeanoL]

10 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Some of the funding might have technically come via the EU, but as that's the UK sending the EU money and the EU only sending some of it back again it's hard to see how they'd be less UK govt money available for the same projects outside of the EU.

I get your point here, money goes to EU, money comes back to us from EU for certain projects, based on matched funding deals. Yes the government could refuse those matched funding deals if it didn't want to spend the money... but if it did that for everything, then it wouldn't be getting that money back from the EU at all. It might be UK money going in, but it's not like there's then a huge chunk of that we get back to spend on whatever we want. The EU insist on that money being spent on certain things, and the government also have to contribute to get it, if they want the best value out of it. A government with full control of that money... I don't see as many of those programmes being funded. Especially now.

5 hours ago, incident said:

If the UK left Europe? I think it'd become very likely, very quickly that Scotland would leave the UK, and rejoin Europe. Regardless of the oil price.

It's almost certain that the SNP would use a Leave vote as an excuse to hold another referendum. The uncertainty regarding how an independent Scotland would be able to fit into the EU was a significant factor in them voting to stay in the UK last time round - and was probably a much bigger factor than the oil price in the overall outcome.

A second Scottish independence referendum after the UK leaving the EU would essentially reverse that situation - ie leaving the UK would mean being welcomed back into the EU, as opposed to staying in a newly isolated UK and following the direction set by Prime Minister Gove. Scottish Independence suddenly becomes a much more desirable prospect. Hell, I'd consider moving there and probably wouldn't be alone in that.

Just my opinion, but I think a Leave vote would significantly increase the likelihood of the break up of the UK. If not guarantee it.

Which then entirely destroys the whole immigration argument for 'out' as we'd then have to police a border with Scotland.

I assume we will have the results available by region, so if Scotland (and/or Wales) vote with a majority one way, and England votes another, it'll cause huge questions on the future of the Union.

[eFestivals]

13 hours ago, Ommadawn said:

If we have to keep using (or threatening to use) our precious veto, what the hell is the point of staying in? If we have so little in common with the rest of the EU. we might as well be out.

we have so little in common with the other members that the EU members agree to over 90% of the things the UK wants from the EU?

 

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, grumpyhack said:

My point wasn't meant to be nationalist.  I'd like to think that I'm an internationalist rather than a nationalist.  I was only describing the situation in South Wales, which is where I work, as it's the one that I have direct experience of.

You're describing a story that exists in South Wales, that's pushed by nats for their political benefit.

I've seen others say what you've said hundreds of times. I've seen people ask for prove of it hundreds of times (and I've asked some for proof of it too, even on these forums). I've never seen that proof.

Perhaps you'll be the first to show it to me?

 

12 hours ago, grumpyhack said:

My point is that a lot of deprived communities, not just in South Wales but in many other parts of the UK too, have benefitted from  the European Social Fund.

True.

But it's a fund that no one gets in the UK without the UK govt chipping in the vast majority of the money - making it not EU money but solidly UK money.

Do you expect farmers subsidies to be cut if we leave? I doubt it, as almost no one does. Exactly all of the same things exist around development funds.

Before the EU took on the responsibility for development funding there was UK development funding of the same amount. I'm sure you're old enough to remember it.

The only thing that's changed is the badge on the wall, and the nats narrative they spin around it.

 

12 hours ago, grumpyhack said:

The particular aim of ESF spending is to support the creation of more and better jobs in the EU, which it does by co-funding national, regional and local projects that improve the levels of employment, the quality of jobs, and the inclusiveness of the labour market in the Member States and their regions.

and the UK did nothing of regional development before the EU?

It's a responsibility that was TRANSFERRED, FFS!!!

 

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, ourkid1984 said:

Yeah I agree with what you're saying. 

For me it's safer to stay in especially with the people heading up the Brexit agenda.

It definitely isn't a fairy godmother dropping money from the sky. But it's better than not having it for me. 

But there's no reason to think it wouldn't exist, no matter what happened after brexit.

Development funds existed before the EU, and were then transferred to the EU (just as farmers subsidies existed before the EU and were transferred to the EU).

If we leave the EU the stuff gets transferred back.

And given that *every* UK govt has fully supported the EU development funds available for the UK - both with the need for them, and the money - there's absolutely no reason whatsoever to think things would change.

I'm no fan of the tories, but this idea that the tories are the grim reaper in disguise is getting way beyond the working of brain cells.

Edited May 31, 2016 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

10 hours ago, incident said:

If the UK left Europe? I think it'd become very likely, very quickly that Scotland would leave the UK, and rejoin Europe. Regardless of the oil price.

It's almost certain that the SNP would use a Leave vote as an excuse to hold another referendum. The uncertainty regarding how an independent Scotland would be able to fit into the EU was a significant factor in them voting to stay in the UK last time round - and was probably a much bigger factor than the oil price in the overall outcome.

A second Scottish independence referendum after the UK leaving the EU would essentially reverse that situation - ie leaving the UK would mean being welcomed back into the EU, as opposed to staying in a newly isolated UK and following the direction set by Prime Minister Gove. Scottish Independence suddenly becomes a much more desirable prospect. Hell, I'd consider moving there and probably wouldn't be alone in that.

Just my opinion, but I think a Leave vote would significantly increase the likelihood of the break up of the UK. If not guarantee it.

do you know many societies that are dead keen to cut their govt revenues - and so spending - by 15%? The tories haven't even cut 5%.

Just think about that for a moment, and do remember that the society we're talking about claims to value its public services more than the average bear - the same public services which would have 15% less money, about the whole cost of that place's health services.

And just think about how all this came about because, supposedly, there's nothing more evil than much much smaller tory cuts.

If Scotland were to vote out, it would only prove all the stuff said by nats to be lies. It would fuck all to do with the state of public services or nasty Westminster, and would be everything about little Scotlanders 100% identical to the kippers world view.

[eFestivals]

7 hours ago, Tyonks said:

Democracy is undermined time and time again, just look at Greece this time last year.

Spending other people's money is a democratic right?

I think you've a strange idea of what democracy is, my friend.

[ourkid1984]

7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

But there's no reason to think it wouldn't exist, no matter what happened after brexit.

Development funds existed before the EU, and were then transferred to the EU (just as farmers subsidies existed before the EU and were transferred to the EU).

If we leave the EU the stuff gets transferred back.

And given that *every* UK govt has fully supported the EU development funds available for the UK - both with the need for them, and the money - there's absolutely no reason whatsoever to think things would change.

I'm no fan of the tories, but this idea that the tories are the grim reaper in disguise is getting way beyond the working of brain cells.

No surely the grim reaper is Farage. I wouldn't want to remain if I thought that.

[eFestivals]

4 hours ago, DeanoL said:

get your point here, money goes to EU, money comes back to us from EU for certain projects, based on matched funding deals. Yes the government could refuse those matched funding deals if it didn't want to spend the money... but if it did that for everything, then it wouldn't be getting that money back from the EU at all. It might be UK money going in, but it's not like there's then a huge chunk of that we get back to spend on whatever we want. The EU insist on that money being spent on certain things, and the government also have to contribute to get it, if they want the best value out of it. A government with full control of that money... I don't see as many of those programmes being funded. Especially now.

because the UK govt doesn't have control of that money now? Pleaase!

The UK govt has control of giving the EU the money in the first place. The UK govt has control of EU development funds that come back to the UK.

Your take is waaaay off the facts.

[eFestivals]

5 hours ago, DeanoL said:

Which then entirely destroys the whole immigration argument for 'out' as we'd then have to police a border with Scotland.

Actually, it's the other way round.

As a border country of the EU, Scotland would be obliged by its EU membership to secure it's external-to-the-EU border. It's Scotland that would be *required* to erect customs control and passport checks.

I don't doubt the rUK would also want them, but the nation with an absolute requirement for them would be iScotland as an EU member if rUK was not a member.

 

Quote

I assume we will have the results available by region, so if Scotland (and/or Wales) vote with a majority one way, and England votes another, it'll cause huge questions on the future of the Union.

For Ireland yep, ...

But Scotland recently voted to go along with the decisions of that union and not be counted as something separate.

There might be a lot of noise from the 23% in Scotland that still believe the SNP indyref lies, but the rest are smart enough to know they don't wish poverty on themselves - including the SNP themselves. They'll do all they can to try and head off that 2nd indyref because they know they'll lose.

Edited May 31, 2016 by eFestivals

[grumpyhack]

Gosh, you've been busy this morning Neil.

As someone who clearly reads and thinks about the postings on this forum, I'd be interested on your thoughts on how much EFests posters and festival goers represent the overall population demographic. 

If the In/Out poll responses here were reflected nationally in the referendum there would be an overwhelming In vote, yet opinion polls suggest that the result will be much closer.

Do you think that's because EFests posters have a younger average age than the voting population as a whole (polls suggest that more young people are In voters), or is it that the majority festival-goers have a somewhat different view of the world to the population as a whole?

Edited May 31, 2016 by grumpyhack

[mungo57]

8 minutes ago, grumpyhack said:

Gosh, you've been busy this morning Neil.

Was just thinking the same thing, poor him. I was expecting him to be standing by his bed like the rest of us!

[eFestivals]

12 minutes ago, grumpyhack said:

Gosh, you've been busy this morning Neil.

As someone who clearly reads and thinks about the postings on this forum, I'd be interested on your thoughts on how much EFests posters and festival goers represent the overall population demographic. 

If the In/Out poll responses here were reflected nationally in the referendum there would be an overwhelming In vote, yet opinion polls suggest that the result will be much closer.

Do you think that's because EFests posters have a younger average age than the voting population as a whole (polls suggest that more young people are In voters), or is it that the majority festival-goers have a somewhat different view of the world to the population as a whole?

I'd say it's a mix of both of those things.

No evidence for your development funding claims...?

[grumpyhack]

You could begin here http://www.welcomeurope.com/eurofunding-guidelines/2014-eurofunding-comprehensive-guide.html

 

[eFestivals]

19 minutes ago, grumpyhack said:

You could begin here http://www.welcomeurope.com/eurofunding-guidelines/2014-eurofunding-comprehensive-guide.html

 

That's not proof of the UK stealing development money from Wales, as you said.

Want to try again?

(that's the method of distributing development funds. Before the EU, the UK also had a method for distributing development funds, of around the same proportion of GDP as now. There's naff all meaningful difference with that, ultimately).

 

Edited May 31, 2016 by eFestivals

[clarkete]

1 hour ago, grumpyhack said:

If the In/Out poll responses here were reflected nationally in the referendum there would be an overwhelming In vote, yet opinion polls suggest that the result will be much closer.

A tracker here which also includes information from the betting companies.  That says for example "On the Betfair betting exchange, the probability they suggest of a remain vote has risen from about 65% a month ago to nearly 80% now"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36271589

Edited May 31, 2016 by clarkete

[brettredmayne]

Postal vote done to stay

[clarkete]

For what's it's worth, the bookies odds are here - http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

 

[djdavejohnson]

Two more for Remain - postal vote completed and sent today.

[SwedgeAntilles]

Sturgeon vs Johnson in a TV debate on Thursday. Fingers crossed she hands him his arse. 

[pie_and_a_pint]

24 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

Sturgeon vs Johnson in a TV debate on Thursday. Fingers crossed she hands him his arse. 

She will. And his balls. On a plate.

[Chopmunky]

Postal voted: remain.