How Many Could They Sell?

[st dan]

Just reading the secret release thread and can see that Twitter is full of people entering competitions etc looking frantically for tickets - it got me wondering, hypothetically speaking (capacity and logistics aside) ...

How many tickets could the festival realistically sell each year? 

If there are 215,000 (roughly) in attendance each year, and the figure of 1,000,000+ registrations is often thrown around in discussions, it would be interesting to see how popular Glastonbury could actually be if there was no limit. 

My guess would be around 500,000. If the ticket price was halved, then surely we would be talking 1,000,000+? Or am I overestimating the popularity of festivals / the Glastonbury brand?

[cb4747]

There could be infinite tickets for sale and I still wouldn't be able to bloody get one. 

[Lucy92]

1 minute ago, st dan said:

Just reading the secret release thread and can see that Twitter is full of people entering competitions etc looking frantically for tickets - it got me wondering, hypothetically speaking (capacity and logistics aside) ...

How many tickets could the festival realistically sell each year? 

If there are 215,000 (roughly) in attendance each year, and the figure of 1,000,000+ registrations is often thrown around in discussions, it would be interesting to see how popular Glastonbury could actually be if there was no limit. 

My guess would be around 500,000. If the ticket price was halved, then surely we would be talking 1,000,000+? Or am I overestimating the popularity of festivals / the Glastonbury brand?

I guess there are a lot of people who are registered and have tried before but get put off due to not being able to get tickets. I know a few people who are in that position who have given up trying but are still registered. This could be why there is talk of another festival (Emily eavis tweeted about another one) to fill the demand 

[MilkyJoe]

Bear in mind that registrations are valid for what? A few years anyway so people who planned on only going once or people who have stopped going for whatever reason will still have valid registrations. With around 135,000 tickets sold to the public I think 200-250k may be a realistic figure?*

*purely a guess!

Shaun.

[Avalon_Fields]

I'd guess no more than quarter of a million. Even if they got space and a license to greatly expand, I reckon it would put plenty off going and the numbers would be self-limiting.

[DeanoL]

It's oversubscribed but not by as much as people think. It only takes a relatively small differential for it feel hopeless getting tickets. When it started selling out on the day (2003+) and registration was bought in there were stories of twice as many people wanting tickets as were available. Then in 2008 it didn't sell out.

On pure gut feel, I'd imagine realistically it's around 165,000 people after 135,000 tickets. Which means about 1/7th of people lose out.

I also think it's probably skewed by the depost/refund system. With infinite tickets, I can imagine them selling 200,000 deposits in October, then seeing 30,000 of those returned.

[stuartbert two hats]

My guess would be around 200,000, maybe a few thousand less.  I'd be incredibly surprised if demand has rocketed much more than that since 2008.

[4AssedMonkey]

I know the 1M registrations thing gets bandied about, but I have 2 valid ones at the moment and have a few friends who've been once/twice and don't go every year who still have valid registrations too.  I'd be surprised if out of 1M registrations there were more then 250,000 actively looking for tickets every year.

And from just reading on here regularly about those who's party all got tickets to the one who were disappointed, I'd say this is a ratio of no more than 10 to 1.  I don't personally know anyone who didn't get a ticket this year who I know was trying.

If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say around 175,000 realistically would actually buy tickets, then pay up and then attend.

[Bradders]

I think if it was easier to get tickets a lot more of the people who say "oh I'd love to go one year" actually would. Wouldn't be surprised if they could shift double the tickets on sale.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Bradders said:

I think if it was easier to get tickets a lot more of the people who say "oh I'd love to go one year" actually would. Wouldn't be surprised if they could shift double the tickets on sale.

They didn't 8 years ago.  Or put in much bother the year after, when it was still a piece of piss.

Edited May 18, 2016 by stuartbert two hats

[eFestivals]

44 minutes ago, st dan said:

Just reading the secret release thread and can see that Twitter is full of people entering competitions etc looking frantically for tickets - it got me wondering, hypothetically speaking (capacity and logistics aside) ...

How many tickets could the festival realistically sell each year? 

If there are 215,000 (roughly) in attendance each year, and the figure of 1,000,000+ registrations is often thrown around in discussions, it would be interesting to see how popular Glastonbury could actually be if there was no limit. 

My guess would be around 500,000. If the ticket price was halved, then surely we would be talking 1,000,000+? Or am I overestimating the popularity of festivals / the Glastonbury brand?

I've been told in all seriousness by GF's main tickets guy that they've had 1M trying to buy tickets on ticket day.
(that relates to a particular year [and perhaps not all years] and I can't remember which year now, tho I think it was 5+ years ago).

My own view about the same year was that there were maybe 250k or 300k trying to buy at very most, based on a number of different benchmarks (including stuff like the success rate of people posting here).

There's a few things which could account for the difference in those numbers, including him mis-understanding what See might have told him, and the 1M being the number of devices (rather than unique IPs) trying because plenty of us try on more than one device (tho 1m devices still seems excessive). What I'm absolutely certain of is that demand hasn't risen by 10 times since I've been running efestivals and its preceding Glasto website.

If they had unlimited* tickets to sell (with performers, etc, on top) I really wouldn't be surprised if demand was often short of 200k depending who they had as headliners that year - say, for instance, the recent Metallica year. Years like this one with Adele (and the stones a few years back) would maybe get near 300k.

(* don't forget, with unlimited tickets and easy availability, the specialness of having a ticket is gone, and with that goes some of the Glasto-mystical which would lessen demand. You wouldn't have to commit, you could dip in and out each year as you fancied)

[Bradders]

8 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

They didn't 8 years ago.  Or put in much bother the year after, when it was still a piece of piss.

True but the reasons the festival didn't sell out that year (weather, Jay-Z, general media negativity) would have had even more impact on your floating voters.

[grumpyhack]

It's a question to which we'll never know the answer.  Other than they manage to sell as many as they are allowed to by licensing laws/site capacity. Realistically the site capacity isn't going to increase and, short of a disaster, they'll always sell out.

[billum]

But, as Neil suggests, don't we just love it because it *is* so exclusive and hard to get the magical tickets?! The feeling when you know you've actually bagged one for the coming year is amazing, and wouldn't be anything like that if the tickets were freely available and easy to come by. Then the build-up starts, and by the time the festival is about to start we're ready to explode with anticipation and excitement, and all of our (unlucky) mates are saying how jealous they are that you're going.

[djdavejohnson]

2 minutes ago, billum said:

But, as Neil suggests, don't we just love it because it *is* so exclusive and hard to get the magical tickets?! The feeling when you know you've actually bagged one for the coming year is amazing, and wouldn't be anything like that if the tickets were freely available and easy to come by. Then the build-up starts, and by the time the festival is about to start we're ready to explode with anticipation and excitement, and all of our (unlucky) mates are saying how jealous they are that you're going.

I think there is an element of this, but I'm sure the reason we all love the place isn't simply down to this alone. There are a lot more pertinent reasons that spring to mind that explain our love for the farm.

[4AssedMonkey]

Personally, the exclusivity isn't anything to do with the attraction at all.  I'd be much happier if it didn't sell out in 30 minutes every year or even if it didn't quite sell out at all.  Much less stressful.

[billum]

2 minutes ago, djdavejohnson said:

I think there is an element of this, but I'm sure the reason we all love the place isn't simply down to this alone. There are a lot more pertinent reasons that spring to mind that explain our love for the farm.

Oh yes, totally agree, didn't mean to suggest even that that's a big reason to love the festival. But it does give it an extra edge!

[djdavejohnson]

3 minutes ago, billum said:

Oh yes, totally agree, didn't mean to suggest even that that's a big reason to love the festival. But it does give it an extra edge!

Oh I know don't worry I knew what you meant

[eFestivals]

9 minutes ago, djdavejohnson said:

I think there is an element of this, but I'm sure the reason we all love the place isn't simply down to this alone. There are a lot more pertinent reasons that spring to mind that explain our love for the farm.

For us, perhaps.

But for other people, it allows them to dip in and out of Glastonbury (say, if the line-up that year doesn't do it for them), and makes it less of a big deal.

As things are at the moment, you have to commit because you know it's not solely your choice about whether you go next year. That commitment, because you can go and others can't, is part of what makes it a big deal.

[p.pete]

Weather in recent years will play a big part too - yes 2008 had jay-z, but you'd assume the baseline numbers of people wanting to go wouldn't have dipped quite so much if it wasn't following 05 and 07 (bad weather years).  There seems to be quite a few people on here talking about their groups going as being 20/30 people large, if the weather's crap then the enthusiasm of large groups can get hit pretty severely and then they take a few years to build back up again.  Obviously then the size of the headliners probably can swing figures up or down by maybe 200k.

[Fishman]

1 hour ago, p.pete said:

Weather in recent years will play a big part too - yes 2008 had jay-z, but you'd assume the baseline numbers of people wanting to go wouldn't have dipped quite so much if it wasn't following 05 and 07 (bad weather years).  There seems to be quite a few people on here talking about their groups going as being 20/30 people large, if the weather's crap then the enthusiasm of large groups can get hit pretty severely and then they take a few years to build back up again.  Obviously then the size of the headliners probably can swing figures up or down by maybe 200k.

This was my experience  ....

20 strong group in 2007, 5 in 2008.

We have one returnee this year for the first time since. So, if it ra**s then it's his fault. 

[Starchild771]

I think it's hard to quantify. In my group some people will give up after the October sales because they like to be mentally prepared and often choose another activity instead if they don't get tickets. Some of us will relentlessly try every single sale and others will just have a last minute gamble on the off chance. I know some people who want to go but don't even try because they think it will be futile trying to get tickets (I think this maybe especially true for newbies who may not fully understand what Glastonbury has to offer until they've been once).

[jeffie]

Just me, all mine.

[blackred]

Don't think it's possible to guess.

We know the baseline recently has been at least capacity, beyond that I reckon demand fluctuates significantly - the 3 big, safe, headliners this year will undoubtedly have increased interest whereas last year’s headliner situation probably had the opposite effect. I'm sure GFL have a good idea of year on year demand based on the load on the See website, number of returns, selling speed etc, and try their best to adjust accordingly.

Whether demand will continue to stay above capacity is anyone’s guess, I reckon between a shit economy, shit weather and shit headliners it could go south quite quickly (see 2008), in recent years they have only had to deal with one of these factors so who knows the impact dealing with 2.

 

Edited May 18, 2016 by blackred

[djdavejohnson]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

For us, perhaps.

But for other people, it allows them to dip in and out of Glastonbury (say, if the line-up that year doesn't do it for them), and makes it less of a big deal.

As things are at the moment, you have to commit because you know it's not solely your choice about whether you go next year. That commitment, because you can go and others can't, is part of what makes it a big deal.

Fair comment I agree with that - out of interest what's your best estimate in terms of Glasto regulars that go (on average) each year, and for general Glasto regulars (whether a ticket is secured, or not as the case may be)?