Weather thread 2015

[FuzzyDunlop]

How far out was the 2010 heatwave predicted (sorry forecast) ?? I don't think we were talking heatwave until just before the fest....

It was always "set to break". I know that we took wellies and were expecting to need them at the weekend.

[fur_q]

2010 was IIRC never predicted as a washout but it wasn't untill the week of the festival that we started to get n idea of just hipow good it would be

Edited June 8, 2015 by fur_q

[frostypaw]

iirc there was some cresting moment about a week before when the jet stream lifted or the azores ridged or spain fingered and it became all but set in stone

do i remember the fear was it breaking sunday/monday then that pushed back by the thursday?

[Franky]

Anybody listen to radio1 this morning on Grimmys show. They were talking about the weather at glastonbury but i only caught the end of it. But from what i could make out it wasnt sounding positive!

I heard the exact same thing but didn't get the context. That was at about 8:00 though I think.

[ltfckimbo]

2010 is the reason I have to check this thread every day. The intense, tantric build up as the forecasts got better and better over the weeks, leading to the glorious climax as they finally reached the consensus that it was going to be a dry one.

[fur_q]

Any forecasts this far out should be met with caution and we are only just starting to get the festival in range for on the GFS models, looking at the GFS models I'd say their is some degree of certainty over what will happen over the period in the run up to the festival.

The high pressure we've enjoyed this weekend will break down over the next few days and things will get a lot cooler with some rain. From the Middle of next week pressure will slowly build again but today the GFS is showing little confidence in what will happen as of the Tuesday of the festival, the 06hz operational run went for another low moving in, but this wasn't reflected in the ensembles as the ensemble mean predicted better than the operational. The 12hz run suggested an improvement and this is more inline with what the majority of the ensembles are showing.

In summary a bit shit this week better next week and at present festival week could go either way, we so we need to hold tight and wait for more model data.

[Tyonks]

Errrr, I think you'll find us gays are to blame for bad weather.

Apologies in advance.

Apology accepted

I'll be sure to blame those dastardly immigrants too, if too much traffic means i'm late to site!

[richy24]

I always find this a worthwhile read as we get closer to the festival. I dont claim to understand what they are saying a lot of the time, but it sounds pretty positive at the moment...

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83255-model-output-discussion-1st-june-2015-12z/page-21

[JoeyT]

I always find this a worthwhile read as we get closer to the festival. I dont claim to understand what they are saying a lot of the time, but it sounds pretty positive at the moment...

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83255-model-output-discussion-1st-june-2015-12z/page-21

That's what I read.

A couple of quotes for those who don't want to click on the link:

but looking further ahead, these charts would really put the Flaming into June.

and

And again this morning there are promising signals for much more settled/warmer weather to push in from the South for around the Summer Equinox.

[richy24]

"The GFS Operational today shows a run of two halves with Week 1 taking us up to the middle of next week showing thundery showers likely almost anywhere eventually with some warm and humid air across the South as shallow Low pressure moves North from Europe later this week. Then from the middle of next week to the end of the run a largely dry, fine and very warm period looks likely over the South at least as High pressure builds across the South of the UK for much of the time with an Atlantic SW feed across the North perhaps delivering occasional rain at times there"

I'm happy to let Isle of Wight festival take the hit for us this weekend!

[amfy]

The thing on Grimmy's show was that 'the papers' (I think he looks at The Mail) were saying Glasto would be a 'Gloopy mudfest'.

It is just clickbait because none of the forecasts are predicting anything like this - some are forecasting some rain - but I haven't seen a 'Gloopy mud fest' one. Although, of course 'some rain' can suddenly veer to 'Gloopy mudfest' at the last minute so I'm not counting chickens!

In 2010 I remember that the run up to the festival was very unpredictable weather. I got married on the 19th, the Saturday before the festival, and I clearly remember seriously torrential rain on the Friday, and thinking I would sacrifice my wedding day for a dry Glastonbury.

Then my wedding day was OK - not fantastic, but bits of sun & some cloudy dull bits - pretty perfect Glastonbury weather really, and I was sure we were cursed.

Then, staying in our lovely hotel in Dorset on Sunday, Countryfile boldly told us not to bother packing a mac or wellies!

We were shouting 'Nooooooo!!! don't anger the weather gods!!'

but sure enough - out of nowhere, wall to wall sunshine!

[JoeyT]

Nal will still find something negative within these forecasts. Fact.

[The_Amazing_Oblong]

Is Jackone no longer doing his soothsaying ?

[Drinky]

If the chart JoeyT posted for the Wednesday really comes off, we'll be lugging our stuff onto site in 27c heat with very little breeze... it would make Wednesday 2010 look like an autumn weekend...

[FuzzyDunlop]

If the chart JoeyT posted for the Wednesday really comes off, we'll be lugging our stuff onto site in 27c heat with very little breeze... it would make Wednesday 2010 look like an autumn weekend...

Can honestly say that is my worst fear weather wise.

Cant take the reports seriously for another 13 days yet....

Edited June 9, 2015 by FuzzyDunlop

[fur_q]

Latest GFS operational looking good for the start of the festival, but its worth noting that the this is much more optimistic that any of the ensemble runs, the ensable mean is going for a slightly worse scenario.

[stephos83]

Is Jackone no longer doing his soothsaying ?

He is - details are here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83119-glastonbury-festival-24th-28th-june-2015/

[The Nal]

Good weather reports this early always mean rain.

[chrismac1986]

Looking good so far, but still very early. This time next week i think we can start to believe

[pedmills]

Today, the average of the websites is 6mm:

[fightoffyour]

Good weather reports this early always mean rain.

In short, we're fucked?

[The Nal]

In short, we're fucked?

Thats pretty much the crux of it yep.

Edited June 9, 2015 by The Nal

[Filthy]

I'm very surprised at the amount of rain in 2009, I don't remember it being particularly bad. Did that all fall on Sunday night after the headliners?

[FuzzyDunlop]

I'm very surprised at the amount of rain in 2009, I don't remember it being particularly bad. Did that all fall on Sunday night after the headliners?

It battered down on the Thursday night. Up there wirh last years storm

[Spindles]

Yeah, was still raining heavily til midday Friday as well (it wasn't constant all night, storm about teatime, showers here and there through the night and then pissed down for a few hours in the morning). Sun that year was incredibly strong though, so it cleared up really quickly. I remember the cabaret tent being more rammed than I've ever seen it with people looking for entertainment under cover.