The Weather Thread 2024

[ibilly99]

2 minutes ago, AdrianH said:

 

Heavier rain misses the site Wednesday and we get a warm up towards the weekend. Feasible just about.

But no snow ?

[NotAnInsider]

The GFS has the jet stream doing a few fairly pronounced shifts and splits over the coming days; I don't think that's too easy to model in reliably.

 

I really want to see the Met Office's confidence index for the next 10 days but it isn't public facing. I suspect its quite low at the moment but hope the 14 day forecast they upload to the app later today might feature it.

[pauladam]

1 minute ago, ibilly99 said:

But no snow ?

I dont think he's done anything since Informer.....so should be ok

[behindthebunhouse]

35 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

 

Last year at this stage they were exactly how it turned out sadly.

 

SURELY there's one out there giving a lovely finger? 

Lmao no they weren't, come on man

 

This is from the Friday before gates opened 

 

[Sheffield Steve]

48 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

 

Be great to see the extended run...I feel like although this scenario threatens initial thundery showers it may just die off leaving us with fairly warm settled conditions. Thursday met office computerised output showing light shower risk and low 20s on Thursday - but by evening its Sunny again.

This is UKMO midday Thursday…quite a bit of rain from the south but, as you say, drying up later.  And hopefully higher pressure after that….
 

[devonhammer]

I'd be interested if there's a good source for the UK Met Office high-res data. Best I can find is this out to Wednesday am:

 

 

A lot of sites have the low res (even on the same site)

 

 

There's a big difference between the two

[Respectfatfrog]

if it can stay dry until we are in on Wednesday I can deal with it, queuing and setting up in the rain is not fun  

[4AssedMonkey]

Against the spirit of the thread, I know, but I just think the weather this time of year is difficult to predict at the best of times and is just particularly tricksy this year.

 

It's all over the place and many times recently, it's been way off on the actual day.  Tuesday this week the forecast in the morning said dry/warm, some cloud.  By lunchtime it said chance of rain in the afternoon.  What actually happened at 4:00pm was a biblical thunderstorm, the likes of which I've rarely seen, which dropped 30mm of rain in an hour.  All over by 6:00pm.  Madness.

[The Nal]

5 minutes ago, 4AssedMonkey said:

Against the spirit of the thread, I know, but I just think the weather this time of year is difficult to predict at the best of times and is just particularly tricksy this year.

 

It's all over the place and many times recently, it's been way off on the actual day.  Tuesday this week the forecast in the morning said dry/warm, some cloud.  By lunchtime it said chance of rain in the afternoon.  What actually happened at 4:00pm was a biblical thunderstorm, the likes of which I've rarely seen, which dropped 30mm of rain in an hour.  All over by 6:00pm.  Madness.

 

So you're saying that people posting sunny forecasts in April with "stick" beside it may not be accurate??

 

And actually, may be symptoms of utter insanity?

[4AssedMonkey]

For "utter insanity" read "excitement and wishful thinking" and you're spot on. 😉 

[Little Thief]

So is the current vibe definitely pack the wellies, or will robust walking boots prevail? I’ve got to pack today or tomorrow ideally as away until Tues. Coaching it too, so not the luxury of dump the wellies in the car and see what happens.

[Wurzelcat]

Ive just been reading from this time last year (ie the Friday before) and it looked far worse, but turned out alright in the end.

[devonhammer]

Just now, Little Thief said:

So is the current vibe definitely pack the wellies, or will robust walking boots prevail? I’ve got to pack today or tomorrow ideally as away until Tues. Coaching it too, so not the luxury of dump the wellies in the car and see what happens.

 

I always believe that robust walking boots is the right choice. Maybe with gaiters if it's really bad.

[Jack Ledger]

1 hour ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

Every year the worst bit of this thread is when the models don't look good, loads of people come in a) posting positive images of their favorite weather app based on outdated runs or b) saying 'cheer up, it's Glastonbury, don't let the weather affect you'. Cheers, I've been going for a quarter of a century, it'll obviously still be good but I'll tell you for nowt it's much better when you can sit down and wear trainers 😂

 

I'm choosing to believe that the last 48 hours of modeling is just going make the weekend switch back to dry and sunny all the more delicious. 

This 🙂

[Respectfatfrog]

I own neither walking boots or wellies might have to do a quick run to sports direct 

[Festival Sounds Podcast]

1 minute ago, Respectfatfrog said:

I own neither walking boots or wellies might have to do a quick run to sports direct 

Don’t. Just pack sandals. Will be fine 

[briddj]

Please just give us a little hope.

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

10 minutes ago, Wurzelcat said:

Ive just been reading from this time last year (ie the Friday before) and it looked far worse, but turned out alright in the end.

That's not entirely true - equivalent day last year (Friday before) was 16th June, and while there was some disagreement the GFS and ECM were showing nothing more than occasional showers and high pressure building Fri-Sun. Generally more rain in the mix this year and more divergence in the models. 

 

 

[Spindles]

1 hour ago, ibilly99 said:

What is a realistic best case scenario - there will be some rain , it won't be biblical and the site will shake it off ? Is there a 50/50 for that ?

Realistic best case scenario is that over the next few days we see the volume and frequency of predicted rain diminish on the forecasts, until there's just a couple of narrow periods where we get brief light showers on maybe Wednesday and Friday, with an average peak temp of 22c and overnight temps in the low teens.

[Superscally]

1 hour ago, eatingglitter said:

Tbh I know this, literally inside and out the evils of wellies. I've seen the welly burns of my colleagues back in 2007... but I still panic about whether I need them. LOL

Absolutely. Still debate getting a pair. 😄😄😄

[gherkin8r]

2 minutes ago, Spindles said:

Realistic best case scenario is that over the next few days we see the volume and frequency of predicted rain diminish on the forecasts, until there's just a couple of narrow periods where we get brief light showers on maybe Wednesday and Friday, with an average peak temp of 22c and overnight temps in the low teens.

Spindles knows something, I can tell!

[1986]

2 hours ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Gossip actually attracting a crowd bigger than a couple of dozen people because it's snowing outside

I'd rather have trench foot.

[Spindles]

1 minute ago, gherkin8r said:

Spindles knows something, I can tell!

 

One part wishful thinking, one part experience.  I reckon we're fine.

[Ayrshire Chris]

2 minutes ago, Superscally said:

Absolutely. Still debate getting a pair. 😄😄😄

We bought memory foam insoles for our wellies. Adds a bit of comfort to them. Always thought to put a strip of that adhesive draught insulation that used to be put on  door frames round the welly tops to prevent rubbing on legs. Might be a bit extreme😉😊

[AdrianH]

GFS 6z with another version of the wet Wednesday. Better though as the heavier stuff is on an improved track