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The Weather Thread 2024


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30 minutes ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

One of my worst thyroid symptoms is feeling the cold...so this will be me this year...

istockphoto-1192728413-612x612.jpg.8de9c57eb4fc8a1bc874ded67e1bc05f.jpg

 

 

 

Proper sports thermal layers, both body and legs, will help

 

(And when say proper, I mean brands like Under Armour & Canterbury and not Primark)

 

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Another bit of analysis of the latest 12Z temperatures. 

 

Wednesday - Op run we can say is an outlier at 15.9º, average across all runs is 21º

 

Thursday - Op isn't a complete outlier, but still round the bottom of the pack at 17.1º, average is 19º

 

Friday - Just one run below the Op so outlier teritory here again at 13.5º at 13:00 (!!!!) before getting up to a lovely 15.6º at 19:00. Average is 17.6 across all runs. 

 

Saturday - Once again lower down in the pack, op is at 15.8º and average is at 17.6º 

 

Sunday - And once again, only two other runs lower than the Op which is at 14.2º at 13:00. Average is 18.9º

 

To sum up, the spread on this chart is pretty wild. Even for the 23rd theres uncertainty and thats three days away... The op is right at the bottom pretty consistently across the entire festival, not to say its gauranteed to be wrong but its showing us there absolutely time and opportunity for it to get higher. Many of the other runs coming in at the low to mid 20s. 

 

Still up in the air, still anything up for grabs and still a sh*t tonne of uncertainty imo. 

 

Data here.

 

image.thumb.png.176b253522f0ad9c9d4de17783a79707.png

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2 minutes ago, gherkin8r said:

Is the operational run what we are looking at when briddj posts his screens? 

 

Is that essentially just one randomly selected run from a number of runs at each time?

I think that the operational run is at a higher resolution. The others are lower resolution but will show how reliable the operational run was. 

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2 minutes ago, gherkin8r said:

Is the operational run what we are looking at when briddj posts his screens? 

 

Is that essentially just one randomly selected run from a number of runs at each time?

 

Correct, the op run is what we're seeing on the charts. But as Tarw says, I'm pretty certain they're run at slightly higher resolution.

 

Ensembles are basically where instead of a model running once and producing a single forecast, multiple instances of the model are run concurrently with slightly differing initial conditions and thus an ensemble of forecasts is produced. It simply helps account for uncertainty introduced in the model initialization, and gives a spread of possible scenarios instead of a single prediction you’re hoping is correct. 

 

I feel they help to provide some context. This guy from Netweather forums sums up my thoughts above better! 

 

image.thumb.png.38b1f2c45344d9d5b536735da803e21c.png

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Much better 12z from the ECM. No pesky area of low pressure hanging around. 
 

Some showers come in for those queuing overnight…

 

IMG_1943.jpeg.ca830521c37cd0806ee2cc7615a96f78.jpeg

 

but then Wednesday afternoon, Thursday and Friday end up dry with just the chance of a light shower…

 

a weakening front moves through during the day on Saturday giving some light rain or showers…

 

IMG_1944.jpeg.a8d9ec286d9ad304b2436f87599aeee5.jpeg


And then the low pressure edges closer for Sunday with a trough moving through giving some potentially heavy showers. 

 

IMG_1945.jpeg.45b65e791ff7586f59133bc731d10316.jpeg
 

But just like the GFS, every run produces twists and turns, so no detail can be inferred.  Which is why the BBC was even refusing to forecast beyond next Tuesday today because the models have no clue…

 

Edited by Sheffield Steve
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10 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Much better 12z from the ECM. No pesky area of low pressure hanging around. 
 

Some showers come in for those queuing overnight…

 

IMG_1943.jpeg.ca830521c37cd0806ee2cc7615a96f78.jpeg

 

but then Wednesday afternoon, Thursday and Friday end up dry with just the chance of a light shower…

 

a weakening front moves through during the day on Saturday giving some light rain or showers…

 

 

IMG_1944.jpeg.a8d9ec286d9ad304b2436f87599aeee5.jpeg


And then the low pressure edges closer for Sunday with a trough moving through giving some potentially heavy showers. 

 

IMG_1945.jpeg.45b65e791ff7586f59133bc731d10316.jpeg
 

But just like the GFS, every run produces twists and turns, so no detail can be inferred.  Which is why the BBC was even refusing to forecast beyond next Tuesday today because the models have no clue…

 

That's 2 different models improved substantially this evening. Let's hope for more improvements tomorrow..

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Think I messed up my post above - still learning the ropes here sorry - but how safe are we from a mud bath do we think?

 

With the site current dry and dry for majority of the build, and not much rain scheduled before Wednesday, is it safe to say the only thing that could cause a lot of mud now would be torrential rain during the festival itself? 

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47 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Indeed they are - and as long as there is no wind to whip the cold air up 16 isn't that bad if the sun shines.................. if the sun does not shine then it will feel cold out of the crowds.

It'll be chilly in the evening/overnight no matter what (based on the latest runs) which is a bit of a bummer but still, better than the wet stuff.

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Just now, Aragorn said:

Daily mail on the wind up

 

Heatwave set to scorch UK next week: Met Office map reveals where temperatures will reach 29C within DAYS - after miserable June washout dampened our spirits

christ do I have to stretch to believing the daily fail ... sadly I think thats going a bit far 

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13 minutes ago, VicAtreides said:

Think I messed up my post above - still learning the ropes here sorry - but how safe are we from a mud bath do we think?

 

 

With the site current dry and dry for majority of the build, and not much rain scheduled before Wednesday, is it safe to say the only thing that could cause a lot of mud now would be torrential rain during the festival itself? 

A couple of hours of fairly heavy rain would make the site muddy even if there no rain between now and it starting. 

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