2021 Going ahead?

[Tom Connolly]

right lads, ladies and NBs. how likely do we think this is to go ahead? i’m gonna be hesitant and say 60% rn. what we all thinking? 

[CG31]

12 hours ago, Tom Connolly said:

right lads, ladies and NBs. how likely do we think this is to go ahead? i’m gonna be hesitant and say 60% rn. what we all thinking? 

At this moment in time I don’t want to get my hopes up, the government is a shambles and the vaccine roll out is taking much longer than anticipated. However, as many people have mentioned we have until late August, by which time many of the highest risk people will have been jabbed. 
if we start to get more of the vaccine in I’m confident we’ll see a festival. If it stay the same it’s a 50/50 imo. I do think there’s going to be immense pressure on the government to let them go ahead though, because they seem very reluctant to fund the live music scene

[atomised]

65% to be on

[dentalplan]

90%

[Benj]

30% 👍🏼

70% 😭

clarity rating 10%

I was feeling 50/50 a couple of weeks back. 

reckon we’ll have a clarity rating of 80% or so by mid March
 

 

[Tom Connolly]

as far as i’m concerned now it’s a 0% chance of going ahead

[swelsbyuk]

I'd say a 20% chance of it going ahead. Mind you, that's 15% more likely than Glasto.

[rivalschools.price]

I’ve got tickets for Download, HRH Ibiza, Pearl Jam and Reading and, as it is the end of August, Reading is the only one that I’ve got any hope for.

[eFestivals]

18 hours ago, rivalschools.price said:

I’ve got tickets for Download, HRH Ibiza, Pearl Jam and Reading and, as it is the end of August, Reading is the only one that I’ve got any hope for.

yeah, Reading/Leeds looks pretty likely because of being late summer. The covid issues should hopefully be a lot more minor by then.

[Newjem]

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

yeah, Reading/Leeds looks pretty likely because of being late summer. The covid issues should hopefully be a lot more minor by then.

I just don't know how that could work. Imagine that the government sets a certain date from which festivals can take place. Lets say it's 1st of August. How would festivals which were planned one week earlier feel? I also think that lifting the ban on mass gatherings will be gradual. It definitely won't be from 0 to 100k. First, they will allow events up to few hundreds, then few thousands and then up to 10k or something like that. This will take several weeks/months.

[eFestivals]

20 hours ago, Newjem said:

I just don't know how that could work. Imagine that the government sets a certain date from which festivals can take place. Lets say it's 1st of August. How would festivals which were planned one week earlier feel?

try applying the same idea to gigs and it means gigs can never restart - which shows what you say is irrelevant.

Festivals and gigs will restart as soon as the govt feels they're safe to restart. The fact that some won't happen because they're before the restart date won't be a factor.

 

20 hours ago, Newjem said:

I also think that lifting the ban on mass gatherings will be gradual. It definitely won't be from 0 to 100k. First, they will allow events up to few hundreds, then few thousands and then up to 10k or something like that. This will take several weeks/months.

they've already been allowing up-to 2,000 at 'mass events' (football, etc), and the intention was to slowly allow more and more.

However, that was with the 'old' covid situation, before vaccines. While you might be right about things being opened up slowly, you might not be either.

As soon as there's no danger of the NHS being overwhelmed because the vaccine is controlling things different to before, there's no real reason not to let everything happen considering the govts stated reason for why we've been having restrictions.

[metallimuse]

Interesting article in NME about the restart and how things are looking...

https://www.nme.com/news/music/restarting-live-music-in-2021-gig-and-festival-bosses-on-what-to-expect-2857761

[metallimuse]

Well that's Glastonbury officially cancelled.

[Matt42]

Nope. Reckon this will be cancelled too

[Matt42]

Apparently Glastonbury couldn’t get NHS staff as the demand is too high.

theres 0 chance any events will go ahead in 2021 if this is the reality

Edited January 21, 2021 by Matt42

[FakeEmpire]

It ain't over 'til it's over.  Reading has some things going for it that Glastonbury doesn't:

1. End of Summer
2. They can delay the build and the decision until much later on when hopefully we'll be in a better place with infections, vaccinations and restrictions
3. They've already made some changes in terms of more outdoor stages & less indoor ones

I'd put the prospects of it going ahead at less than 50% right now but there is hope.

[StuMalinas]

11 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Apparently Glastonbury couldn’t get NHS staff as the demand is too high.

theres 0 chance any events will go ahead in 2021 if this is the reality

Ye especially as there is now a huge waiting list they need to get through, the NHS will be extremely busy all year even if COVID admissions is significantly  reduced 

[wghennessy]

Not a chance this will be going ahead.. 

[Matt42]

34 minutes ago, FakeEmpire said:

It ain't over 'til it's over.  Reading has some things going for it that Glastonbury doesn't:

1. End of Summer
2. They can delay the build and the decision until much later on when hopefully we'll be in a better place with infections, vaccinations and restrictions
3. They've already made some changes in terms of more outdoor stages & less indoor ones

I'd put the prospects of it going ahead at less than 50% right now but there is hope.

How does R&L get around the issue that glasto faced where they couldn’t get NHS staff? Is the festival going to go be going ahead if it doesn’t meet H&S requirements?

[FakeEmpire]

13 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

How does R&L get around the issue that glasto faced where they couldn’t get NHS staff? Is the festival going to go be going ahead if it doesn’t meet H&S requirements?

Of course not. If they cannot get NHS/Emergency staff then it won't go ahead.

What Glastonbury actually say about that is "it's too early to tell when... the demands on our emergency services will be loosened".

They don't say they couldn't get NHS staff in Aug/Sep - they just say they don't know yet whether they could and, ultimately, they needed to make a decision now. R&L don't have to make a decision now and it is possible that, by the time they do, the situation re: emergency staff will be clearer.

 

[Matt42]

46 minutes ago, FakeEmpire said:

Of course not. If they cannot get NHS/Emergency staff then it won't go ahead.

What Glastonbury actually say about that is "it's too early to tell when... the demands on our emergency services will be loosened".

They don't say they couldn't get NHS staff in Aug/Sep - they just say they don't know yet whether they could and, ultimately, they needed to make a decision now. R&L don't have to make a decision now and it is possible that, by the time they do, the situation re: emergency staff will be clearer.

 

R&L will have to make a decision soon though. They can’t throw this all together the few weeks before.

If demand is high for NHS staff for June do you think it will be lower for August? Height of supposed vaccine season?

R&L will not be going ahead.

[FakeEmpire]

6 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

R&L will have to make a decision soon though. They can’t throw this all together the few weeks before.

If demand is high for NHS staff for June do you think it will be lower for August? Height of supposed vaccine season?

R&L will not be going ahead.

We don't know that demand will be high for NHS staff in June.  It may very well be but, with respect, you are passing off assumptions (however accurate they may prove to be) as facts.

As I've said, I think it's more likely to be cancelled than not but I disagree that it's 100% set in stone at this point.

[CG31]

I’m not sure why but I had a thought earlier that this is a exponential rather than a linear situation. People are saying this will open and then you have to wait a set amount of time before this can happen etc. If the vaccine is rolled out to the required people by when they expect it to be it will free up NHS staff and hospital beds as those who are more severely affected are likely to be vaccinated. This then in turn frees up more NHS staff to get vaccinating, meaning less at risk groups will get access to the vaccine. 

They can then start to open things up, but rather than waiting the same amount of time between each thing (pubs without alcohol with a curfew, wait 2 weeks, pubs full time etc) it could gradually get quicker and quicker between things opening up.

And as time goes on we’re sure to see more vaccine being produced on a larger scale. When Glasto was cancelled I thought that was it, but thinking about it, theres a maybe slightly realistic chance that Reading can go ahead.

[Oboy82]

Here's a cheerful article for everyone that thinks vaccines will magically fix this mess https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/21/uk-record-death-tolls-no-clear-covid-strategy

[Matt42]

4 hours ago, Gerard the Fab said:

I’m not sure why but I had a thought earlier that this is a exponential rather than a linear situation. People are saying this will open and then you have to wait a set amount of time before this can happen etc. If the vaccine is rolled out to the required people by when they expect it to be it will free up NHS staff and hospital beds as those who are more severely affected are likely to be vaccinated. This then in turn frees up more NHS staff to get vaccinating, meaning less at risk groups will get access to the vaccine. 

They can then start to open things up, but rather than waiting the same amount of time between each thing (pubs without alcohol with a curfew, wait 2 weeks, pubs full time etc) it could gradually get quicker and quicker between things opening up.

And as time goes on we’re sure to see more vaccine being produced on a larger scale. When Glasto was cancelled I thought that was it, but thinking about it, theres a maybe slightly realistic chance that Reading can go ahead.

You need to factor in time into that thought to measure effectiveness? They need to see evidence it’s working on a major scale before 100,000+ events can go ahead.