Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[Zacko]

Some interesting stuff in the article below. Love Saves in Bristol looking at a smaller capacity on the same site, and trying to replicate some of the format that the team used for Breaking Bread up at the Downs (which was essentially lots of smaller Bristol based restaurants coming together to facilitate outdoor dining and drinks)

https://crackmagazine.net/article/lists/festivals-in-2021-five-festival-organisers-on-how-the-vaccine-has-impacted-their-future-plans/

[Crazyfool01]

wrong thread 

Edited December 16, 2020 by crazyfool1

[Rumblestripe]

7 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Just a random thought, but if 2021 is cancelled then there will have only been a single Glastonbury between June 2017 and June 2022 (five year period). Would that mean there would be no need for fallow years for quite some time? 

I suspect that we would see a run of four consecutive festivals once we "restart" but it is the punishment that the ground takes in those four years that triggers the fallow year, after those I don't think that the lack of activity on the site previously would change that by much perhaps a run of five might be possible? I suspect that it would help immensely if people took this cue to treat the festival site like their own back garden (stop p!ssing in the hedgerows and collect your tab ends for example) would reduce teh need for resting the land?

[Ayrshire Chris]

15 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Just a random thought, but if 2021 is cancelled then there will have only been a single Glastonbury between June 2017 and June 2022 (five year period). Would that mean there would be no need for fallow years for quite some time? 

I suppose that’s up to the licence conditions, would make sense to forget about fallow years for a long time! 

[Lycra]

Just been reading up on the heralded €2.5bn German government festival cancellation scheme. Apparently it only applies to festivals in H2 2021. Anyone able to confirm this is correct? If so a duplicate scheme in the UK would not help GF. It also signals the German government doesn't think festivals in the first half of 2021 will be possible.

https://accessaa.co.uk/german-government-creates-e2-5bn-fund-to-cover-event-cancellation-costs/

Edited December 16, 2020 by Lycra
typo

[Copperface]

8 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Just been reading up on the heralded €2.5bn German government festival cancellation scheme. Apparently it only applies to festivals in H2 2021. Anyone able to confirm this is correct? If so a duplicate scheme in the UK would not help GF. It also signals the German government does think festivals in the first half of 2021 will be possible.

https://accessaa.co.uk/german-government-creates-e2-5bn-fund-to-cover-event-cancellation-costs/

I think it's the opposite. It appears to me they are willing to help out in the second half of the year as there might be a chance of stuff going ahead, but they've totally written off the first half so won't even countenance offering any assistance for that.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

That’s surely when they’d be crazy not to just move it by a week or two, irrespective of the issues of doing so 

[Lycra]

3 minutes ago, Copperface said:

I think it's the opposite. It appears to me they are willing to help out in the second half of the year as there might be a chance of stuff going ahead, but they've totally written off the first half so won't even countenance offering any assistance for that.

Thanks for pointing out my typo. Have amended. We are of the same agreement.

[zahidf]

Q: Will social distancing end once the vulnerable have been vaccinated?

Johnson says a few weeks ago he spoke about the cross-over point, when vaccination would allow measures to be eased.

We are “by no means there yet”, he says.

But he says that point will come before Easter.

 

 

[Old_Johno]

26 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

I suppose that’s up to the licence conditions, would make sense to forget about fallow years for a long time! 

It’s more about the ground conditions than the licence. Don’t forget it’s a farm most of the year 

[mike46]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Q: Will social distancing end once the vulnerable have been vaccinated?

Johnson says a few weeks ago he spoke about the cross-over point, when vaccination would allow measures to be eased.

We are “by no means there yet”, he says.

But he says that point will come before Easter.

 

 

Whitty also said that there will never be a zero risk of COVID, so after the vulnerable are (hopefully) vaccinated within the next three months it becomes a judgement of government when it comes to loosening restrictions - although he reiterated we shouldn’t rush into it

[zahidf]

Just now, mike46 said:

Whitty also said that there will never be a zero risk of COVID, so after the vulnerable are (hopefully) vaccinated within the next three months it becomes a judgement of government when it comes to loosening restrictions - although he reiterated we shouldn’t rush into it

Yup.  And I think we know what the Tories will do

 

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, mike46 said:

Whitty also said that there will never be a zero risk of COVID, so after the vulnerable are (hopefully) vaccinated within the next three months it becomes a judgement of government when it comes to loosening restrictions - although he reiterated we shouldn’t rush into it

Johnson just gave a flat refusal to predict when the over 50s might all be vaccinated. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, Copperface said:

Johnson just gave a flat refusal to predict when the over 50s might all be vaccinated. 

They can’t really say much until the Oxford vaccine is approved, he said himself he’d prefer to be negative. Once it’s approved (potentially in the next week) then vaccination will ramp up rapidly. 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

They can’t really say much until the Oxford vaccine is approved, he said himself he’d prefer to be negative. Once it’s approved (potentially in the next week) then vaccination will ramp up rapidly. 

Johnson has always been negative on the vaccines actually. Never really has talked them.up

 

Whitty says early in the new year hopefully before. So maybe next week 

Edited December 16, 2020 by zahidf

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

They can’t really say much until the Oxford vaccine is approved, he said himself he’d prefer to be negative. Once it’s approved (potentially in the next week) then vaccination will ramp up rapidly. 

I agree. But some seem wedded to the idea of normality at Easter.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, Copperface said:

I agree. But some seem wedded to the idea of normality at Easter.

It’s not that much of a stretch if you ask me Whitty himself said Flu kills 7-20K people per year. If vaccinating 25% of the population cuts Covid deaths by 99%, and the Oxford vaccine gets approved shortly and can be rolled out across GP surgeries etc, then it’s not that unrealistic. That’s in the assumption that the government takes deaths as the key metric, which all things could considered has a high probability.

[kalifire]

13 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Q: Will social distancing end once the vulnerable have been vaccinated?

Johnson says a few weeks ago he spoke about the cross-over point, when vaccination would allow measures to be eased.

We are “by no means there yet”, he says.

But he says that point will come before Easter.

 

 

Johnson’s predictions/forecasts are practically worthless at this point. I don’t think anyone has trust in him or his team. 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It’s not that much of a stretch if you ask me Whitty himself said Flu kills 7-20K people per year. If vaccinating 25% of the population cuts Covid deaths by 99%, and the Oxford vaccine gets approved shortly and can be rolled out across GP surgeries etc, then it’s not that unrealistic. That’s in the assumption that the government takes deaths as the key metric, which all things could considered has a high probability.

And Easter is pretty much based on the Tory party very much telling Boris that they wont vote for restrictions past Easter. If there are a lot less deaths....

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It’s not that much of a stretch if you ask me Whitty himself said Flu kills 7-20K people per year. If vaccinating 25% of the population cuts Covid deaths by 99%, and the Oxford vaccine gets approved shortly and can be rolled out across GP surgeries etc, then it’s not that unrealistic. That’s in the assumption that the government takes deaths as the key metric, which all things could considered has a high probability.

They ain't getting 50 million vaccinations done by Easter, and they are also using admissions and infection rates as key indicators.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

5 minutes ago, Copperface said:

They ain't getting 50 million vaccinations done by Easter, and they are also using admissions and infection rates as key indicators.

25% of the population is 16m, that’s been modelled to cut deaths by 99%.

Thats 1m vaccinations per week by the start of April, they’ve done 100k in a week with the Pfizer one which needs to be stored at minus 70.

Once the Oxford one gets approved that will enable a much faster rollout.

There isn’t a suggestion they need to vaccinate 50m people, the question is once they’ve vaccinated enough people to make Covid less deadly than Flu, will that be their trigger to remove restrictions or not, or will there still be a focus on health outcomes as well? 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, Copperface said:

They ain't getting 50 million vaccinations done by Easter, and they are also using admissions and infection rates as key indicators.

Admissions yes, but infections rate i would be very surprised if by end of March, there is evidence that the death rate is massively lower.

[Euphoricape]

Well I bought tickets for idles at eden project last night, so I'm feeling confident still as this is only 2 weeks after glasto 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

25% of the population is 16m, that’s been modelled to cut deaths by 99%.

Thats 1m vaccinations per week by the start of April, they’ve done 100k in a week with the Pfizer one which needs to be stored at minus 70.

Once the Oxford one gets approved that will enable a much faster rollout.

There isn’t a suggestion they need to vaccinate 50m people, the question is once they’ve vaccinated enough people to make Covid less deadly than Flu, will that be their trigger to remove restrictions or not, or there be a focus on health outcomes as well? 

WHitty says its a political thing. So depends what politically is the issue at that stage

[Copperface]

2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

25% of the population is 16m, that’s been modelled to cut deaths by 99%.

Thats 1m vaccinations per week by the start of April, with some 100k in a week with the Pfizer one which needs to be stored at minus 70.

Once the Oxford one gets approved that will enable a much faster rollout.

There isn’t a suggestion they need to vaccinate 50m people, the question is once they’ve vaccinated enough people to make Covid less deadly than Flu, will that be their trigger to remove restrictions or not, or there be a focus on health outcomes as well? 

As in 50 million vaccinations covering 25 million people receiving two doses.

Phase 1 is estimated at 25-27 million.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Copperface