Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[zahidf]

Just now, Copperface said:

As in 50 million vaccinations covering 25 million people receiving two doses.

so 32 millions vaccinations to cover 16 millions people

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by zahidf

[incident]

Just now, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

They can’t really say much until the Oxford vaccine is approved, he said himself he’d prefer to be negative. Once it’s approved (potentially in the next week) then vaccination will ramp up rapidly. 

It's not even just about when its approved, as we know that's almost certainly coming and probably soon - but there's still questions over what exactly does get approved.

For example, based on the data available it's entirely plausible that the 1.5 dose version (at ~90%) gets approved but only for those under 55 as there's not enough data to say it works well in the older population, whereas the 2 dose version (at ~60%) gets approved for everyone.

In that scenario, the government/JCVI/whoever makes the call in the end could be faced with an interesting dilema -

- Offer the 2 dose version to those on the priority list knowing that it's less effective than the alternatives, uses up stocks faster, and on the published numbers doesn't appear to cut transmission by much.
- Or start offering the 1.5 dose version of the vaccine to under 55s straight away, knowing that it appears to significantly cut transmission.

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

so 32 millions vaccinations to cover 16 millions people

 

Just added figures above. Phase 1 comprises approx 25-27 million people.

[mike46]

24 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Johnson just gave a flat refusal to predict when the over 50s might all be vaccinated. 

Whitty stated he hoped the most vulnerable would be done in the next 3 months and then what happens from there is down to the government. 
 

I don’t believe anyone thinks we’re throwing the doors open on April 1st and can start snogging each other, but it’s clear from that presser that at some point around April/May restrictions will begin easing 

[Lycra]

11 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

25% of the population is 16m, that’s been modelled to cut deaths by 99%.

Thats 1m vaccinations per week by the start of April, they’ve done 100k in a week with the Pfizer one which needs to be stored at minus 70.

Once the Oxford one gets approved that will enable a much faster rollout.

There isn’t a suggestion they need to vaccinate 50m people, the question is once they’ve vaccinated enough people to make Covid less deadly than Flu, will that be their trigger to remove restrictions or not, or will there still be a focus on health outcomes as well? 

First vaccination  phase runs to end March and targets much less than 16m. Also need consider AZ fails to protect 38 out of every 100 people and it may not be as effective in older populations. Medically it's only just scraping through.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Lycra

[balthazarstarbuck]

3 minutes ago, Lycra said:

First vaccination  phase runs to end March and targets much less than 16m. Also need consider AZ fails to protect 38 out of ever 100 people. Medically it's only just scraping through.

Fails to protect likely isn’t accurate given that there were no instances of serious disease in its group. And that’s assuming a rate of 62% as well.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, balthazarstarbuck said:

Fails to protect likely isn’t accurate given that there were no instances of serious disease in its group. And that’s assuming a rate of 62% as well.

yup. If it gives you a less serious Covid which doesnt lead to anything, then thats still good!

[incident]

6 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Also need consider AZ fails to protect 38 out of every 100 people and it may not be as effective in older populations.

While both of those statements are accurate, they shouldn't be put together.

The first statement only applies to the 2 dose regiment, the second statement more relates to the 1.5 dose regiment (because of a lack of data in those age groups).

[efcfanwirral]

21 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Well I bought tickets for idles at eden project last night, so I'm feeling confident still as this is only 2 weeks after glasto 

To be fair that could still happen and Glasto not (and is what I'm leaning towards). Currently tier 1 actually allows 4,000 at an outdoor gig. I know Eden isn't but presumably they could replace the tent with a stage? 

I'm confident about Doves at Delamere for example, as it's only around 4,000 people. But I'm not at all confident about Glastonbury or camping festivals. 

[Euphoricape]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

To be fair that could still happen and Glasto not (and is what I'm leaning towards). Currently tier 1 actually allows 4,000 at an outdoor gig. I know Eden isn't but presumably they could replace the tent with a stage? 

I'm confident about Doves at Delamere for example, as it's only around 4,000 people. But I'm not at all confident about Glastonbury or camping festivals. 

I have to agree with you, I was much more confident a few weeks ago but starting to have doubts about glasto now. Cornwall is currently tier 1 but we have had rising cases in the past week with clusters at schools and colleges etc so who knows where we will be by then. If I have tickets then at least I have something to hope for in the summer. Hopefully both will be on and be the best summer ever.

[Lycra]

26 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Just added figures above. Phase 1 comprises approx 25-27 million people.

Incorrect. Phase 1 covers much less

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

FWIW I’m not sure any of this helps Glastonbury, I just think the clear indication from that press conference seemed to be about setting it up as getting Covid down to being as serious as flu purely in terms of mortality rate (and that we’ll never be rid of it and it will always kill people) then it becomes a political decision about what happens once we get to that point.

To me that’s more or less the scientists washing their hands of it because they know what the political decision will be at that point.  

[efcfanwirral]

7 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

I have to agree with you, I was much more confident a few weeks ago but starting to have doubts about glasto now. Cornwall is currently tier 1 but we have had rising cases in the past week with clusters at schools and colleges etc so who knows where we will be by then. If I have tickets then at least I have something to hope for in the summer. Hopefully both will be on and be the best summer ever.

I'd be absolutely amazed if everywhere isn't in at maximum tier 1 style restrictions come June with the amount of vaccines between now and then. I think our smaller gigs at least are almost guaranteed considering theoretically they could happen now in Cornwall

and I've just remembered I booked My Chemical Romance tickets down there for June. Hell of a journey and with the timing is fully dependent on not going to Glastonbury, either due to tickets or it not happening, but this has reminded me about it!!

Edited December 16, 2020 by efcfanwirral

[Copperface]

4 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Incorrect. Phase 1 covers much less

All the over 50s, plus NHS, care workers and clinically vulnerable? Well over 25 million.

[parsonjack]

37 minutes ago, Copperface said:

All the over 50s, plus NHS, care workers and clinically vulnerable? Well over 25 million.

Not necessarily as some of those groups will cross over eg a 55 year old, working in health sector, with an underlying medical condition would be 1 vaccination, not 3.

[Copperface]

Just now, parsonjack said:

Not necessarily as some of those groups will cross over eg a 55 year old, working in health sector, with an underlying medical condition would be 1 vaccination, not 3.

Fair enough. Just based on over 50s is 25 million.

[stuie]

2 hours ago, zahidf said:

Q: Will social distancing end once the vulnerable have been vaccinated?

Johnson says a few weeks ago he spoke about the cross-over point, when vaccination would allow measures to be eased.

We are “by no means there yet”, he says.

But he says that point will come before Easter.

 

 

Boris is full of crap.

Didn’t he say it’d be over by Christmas? 

[dotdash79]

So whilst it’s later in the year and a lot smaller I’ve just had a email about shambala and the tickets for that. They go on sale on the 18th January. 

[guypjfreak]

This is funny 

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/whats-on/music-nightlife/glastonbury-2021-your-chance-win-4799843.amp

[Chrisp1986]

Lollapalooza announcing line up has given me a little hope!

[swede]

6 hours ago, gfa said:

I personally think clubs and festivals will open at the same time really - its a ton of people mixing and just isn't possible without a good amount of people vaccinated. If anything because of how cramped a club is, a 1k club may be more risky than a 5-10k day festival (especially one where people aren't super packed in and just sitting on camping chairs).

I think the BBC article is just them being cautious - they don't want to give false hope especially after cancelling a week after the announcement this year.

I don’t do clubs anymore, I’m happy to hit a few pubs and then back to someone’s house until the early hours 

[Copperface]

3 hours ago, Lycra said:

Incorrect. Phase 1 covers much less

Listed here.

[Leyrulion]

41 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Listed here.

I discovered today that the National Audit Office have stated that current plans will see 25 million in total vaccinated in England through the whole of 2021.

It's only an England figure so that alongside counting not all the vulnerable accepting two doses of the vaccine means that those numbers will creep into the below 50's. 

That's still fewer vaccines in 2021 then i'd have wanted tbh!

https://www.nao.org.uk/report/investigation-into-preparations-for-potential-covid-19-vaccines/

 

 

[stuartbert two hats]

12 hours ago, Big durbs said:

i was told it was 10 days after first jab to give "some" level of protection , then second jab at 21 day's and 7 days after that for full protection.

that said , my wife is front line NHS , she got her jab last Thursday , but her second jab is not till the first week in Jan, apparently its three to five weeks window for the second jab  , this is due to the Christmas effect . so she wont be at full protection until mid Jan.

im not sure if this will apply to everyone else who have had jabs in the first couple of weeks as well .

 

That's the sensible way to behave, but the data is suggesting that the vast majority of the protection does kick in as soon as 12 days after the first dose.

 

[Copperface]

26 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

I discovered today that the National Audit Office have stated that current plans will see 25 million in total vaccinated in England through the whole of 2021.

It's only an England figure so that alongside counting not all the vulnerable accepting two doses of the vaccine means that those numbers will creep into the below 50's. 

That's still fewer vaccines in 2021 then i'd have wanted tbh!

https://www.nao.org.uk/report/investigation-into-preparations-for-potential-covid-19-vaccines/

 

 

Interesting. I think this is what Sky were reporting on earlier in the thread.

Key bit is this:

29 NHSE&I is currently planning on the assumption that up to 25 million people could be vaccinated against COVID-19 in England throughout 2021 provided sufficient doses of vaccine are available. Current understanding of the majority of vaccines is that each person will require two doses approximately four weeks apart for it to be effective.

 

Dated today

https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Investigation-into-preparations-for-potential-COVID-19-vaccines-Summary.pdf