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Will the 2021 festival go ahead?


JoeyT
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Glastonbury 2021   

434 members have voted

  1. 1. Following the Oxford Vaccine news will it go ahead?

    • Yes - I 100% believe
      43
    • Yes - I think so but not close to 100%. Need to see how the roll out progresses.
      158
    • Maybe - I'm 50/50
      87
    • Unlikely - Even with the latest news I think it's unlikely to take place
      79
    • No - The vaccine news is great but I can't see 200k people being allowed at Worthy Farm in June.
      67


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1 minute ago, Wooderson said:

"Definitely not impossible" is a skilled semantic contortion of "...highly unlikely."

there's two factors in the mix.

There's the planning time that Glastonbury need, and there's what the situation will be in June.

There's lots of good reasons to think the situation will be good enough for a festival in June, but fewer reasons to think Glastonbury will push ahead on a maybe.

There's also things which can be changed so that Glastonbury feel more confident to push ahead on a maybe. We've probably got 8 to 10 weeks for that to happen.

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I do not think there is a need to make a call on Festival yet. Judging by comments in article and people’s knowledge on here the key date would appear to be End of Jan - mid feb, when large spend would have to begin.  Depressingly it is likely that this will be too soon for Eavi to take decision to move ahead without insurance cover of some sort.

Although a big blow, as others have said the long term future is more important.

 

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7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

there's two factors in the mix.

There's the planning time that Glastonbury need, and there's what the situation will be in June.

There's lots of good reasons to think the situation will be good enough for a festival in June, but fewer reasons to think Glastonbury will push ahead on a maybe.

There's also things which can be changed so that Glastonbury feel more confident to push ahead on a maybe. We've probably got 8 to 10 weeks for that to happen.

Sustained decrease in cases, deaths, hospitialisations and risk areas, attributable to the vaccine plus a loosening of restrictions downstream of Glasters (mass attendance at sport / arena gigs?) coupled with no verifiable spike post loosening.

Autumn '21 at the earliest on the above is my c.unt in a punt opinion here.

Edited by Wooderson
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They’re obviously in the media a lot the last few days for a reason. It’s by no means too late at this stage, they’re deliberately starting to put pressure on the Government now so there is plenty of time for them to give them a clear way forward, or not. They’re not saying x,y,z in the media by accident, and they’re not saying it now at the point they need to act, they’re saying it now a couple of months ahead of when they need the government to act. If they still haven’t a couple of months from now, then yes, it will be too late. 

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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Sounds like all of this years headliners are not in the bag if it does go ahead. Taylor especially.

My current guess is there will be a glorified Pilton Party that can be streamed online, don't think the logistics will be easy or it being particularly a money spinner unless loads buy a pass just to support the festival.

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7 minutes ago, august1 said:

Sounds like all of this years headliners are not in the bag if it does go ahead. Taylor especially.

My current guess is there will be a glorified Pilton Party that can be streamed online, don't think the logistics will be easy or it being particularly a money spinner unless loads buy a pass just to support the festival.

or several events ..... 

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1 hour ago, swede said:

I've already accepted that I may not see a festival field next summer, happy if I get back to normal nights out and house parties tbh, anything else is a bonus 

I personally think clubs and festivals will open at the same time really - its a ton of people mixing and just isn't possible without a good amount of people vaccinated. If anything because of how cramped a club is, a 1k club may be more risky than a 5-10k day festival (especially one where people aren't super packed in and just sitting on camping chairs).

I think the BBC article is just them being cautious - they don't want to give false hope especially after cancelling a week after the announcement this year.

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1 hour ago, thrillhouse188 said:

Totally split between thinking the BBC article is a huge setback, or just calming expectations to say it's not a done deal yet despite the vaccine, everything is crossed for the latter! 

That’s how I feel at the moment. Maybe trying to concentrate the minds of the government and the working party on the crucial issue of insurance . We also have to consider the loss of income for the traders, builders, free lance employees  and smaller acts who rely on summer festivals. That would be two years in a row, many without access to the furlough payments.  It’s obvious we will get a concrete decision early in the new year. My fingers are still crossed. 

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1 minute ago, kalifire said:

Filmed over time between when the decision is finally made and June. No way would they have live gigs streamed from Worthy Farm without the necessary fencing in place. Too many idiots could crash the site. 

was thinking about events that might be able to mitigate the financial losses should Glastonbury not be able to happen ... later in the summer .... 

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1 hour ago, DTichborne said:

Keep my deposit for another year, do it in 2022. Announce it sooner rather than later. They need certainty and they don't have certainty. 

That’s almost my position as well. Don’t drag it out - it’s obvious the government are bungling their management of this and even an assurance from them can’t be trusted unless they’re willing to put their money where their mouth is.

Remember when they were covering the cost of people dining out, cheerily encouraging the British public to go and spread COVID? Their competence can’t be trusted and neither can their forecasts. It’ll be some time after June before mass events like Glasto can happen safely  

I’d only add that they can keep my deposit. I’ll take a rollover thanks but I’ll pay another deposit for it. Consider 2020’s deposit a festival donation. 

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It’s not like every stakeholder involved with setting up Glastonbury and making it what it is is at risk of being booked up to do something else.

Everyone involved has a vested interested in it going ahead, it’s that or nothing, so I’d imagine they can hold off another couple of months without any significant cost to worry about.

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Have almost accepted it’s not going on next year, when last week I was certain it would be happening - feels sickening but just can’t see it happening.

I just really hope - should the festivals have to be cancelled - that they roll tickets over again, which I think they will.

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1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

They’re obviously in the media a lot the last few days for a reason. It’s by no means too late at this stage, they’re deliberately starting to put pressure on the Government now so there is plenty of time for them to give them a clear way forward, or not. They’re not saying x,y,z in the media by accident, and they’re not saying it now at the point they need to act, they’re saying it now a couple of months ahead of when they need the government to act. If they still haven’t a couple of months from now, then yes, it will be too late. 

Agree entirely. It's no a coincidence there have been several reports on this issue through various media outlets. However amongst the call for government to underwrite the festival industry I see a genuine concern and confusion. It's very hard to plan when you don't know what you're planning for. There's a plea for direction.

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3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

That's pretty much my thinking based on the tories - although I'll be mildly surprised if it's as late as June.

Unfortunately, I'm thinking there might still be low-level restrictions in place - primarily masks and some manner of social distancing (not necessarily everywhere, perhaps just indoors and in big crowds) - which would probably make Glastonbury unviable.

Yeah, also the legislation you mentioned earlier giving local councils the ability to prevent an event going ahead, I have a feeling that will still be in place - because it's easy then for the government to abdicate responsibility on making the call on big events like that - if there's an outbreak it was the council's fault for not using the powers they had to stop the obvious super-spreader event, if there isn't it's a great demonstration of why the government were right to lift restrictions.

And I feel like Glastonbury wouldn't then be confident going ahead - at least not without cast-iron assurances from the council, and I don't know how forthcoming they would be.

3 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Whilst I don’t disagree with you, limiting events by size would be largely pointless. Glastonbury covers an area the size of oxford, stopping Glastonbury but allowing unlimited events below 100,000 capacity, but that take place in a smaller area and which added together have a capacity many magnitudes bigger than Glastonbury, would be completely stupid and achieve nothing.  

You're probably right scientifically, but it's worth saying that the current legislation puts different restrictions on socially distanced gigs in tier 1 and 2, which are based both on % of regular capacity and abosolute capacity. So there's precedent for it.

2 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Well you never know, there will be a lot of pressure from various places for the Euros to go ahead with full crowds. Enabling that to be possible might just mean the Government creates a pathway that also makes it possible for everything else. 

There's an interesting question on test and trace here. If the government continue throwing millions at it, even with their mates developing it, we're going to end up with functional and fairly decent at some point. That coupled with an overall reduction in numbers because of the vaccine means that events like the Euros, where everyone is sat in a designated place, are suddenly a lot more viable - because in the event of someone getting ill, you can properly contact trace the people they were sat near.

That doesn't work at standing gigs / festivals.

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58 minutes ago, kalifire said:

That’s almost my position as well. Don’t drag it out - it’s obvious the government are bungling their management of this and even an assurance from them can’t be trusted unless they’re willing to put their money where their mouth is.

Remember when they were covering the cost of people dining out, cheerily encouraging the British public to go and spread COVID? Their competence can’t be trusted and neither can their forecasts. It’ll be some time after June before mass events like Glasto can happen safely  

I’d only add that they can keep my deposit. I’ll take a rollover thanks but I’ll pay another deposit for it. Consider 2020’s deposit a festival donation. 

Aye. They could give people the option of making it a donation (but guaranteeing a ticket for 2022) although they shouldn't make it mandatory as many people wouldn't be able to afford it. But as long as they can be upfront about the costs and the issues, by all means let us have the choice of making some sort of donation. 

The reason I don't (at the minute) think it should go ahead in 2021 is that they have to be "all in" (with people and finance) as early as March. Even putting aside government incompetence, I can't see anyone having rock solid certainty by then of the timetable towards normality. Unless they hold it in New Zealand. 

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After hearing/reading the Emily interview on t'BBC I feel that it is now in HUGE doubt.

In terms of this year it MIGHT be possible for some smaller fests to go ahead but I think that big ones G, Latt, Downl, etc. are doomed UNLESS there is a Govt. backed cancellation insurance. Booking of acts and things like PAs and stages would now be well advanced and I guess there is a go/no go moment sometime in March/April that is the moment that they can stop everything at minimal cost?

When did 2020 get canned? We locked down some time in March but then after that it's all a bit blurrred...

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4 minutes ago, Rumblestripe said:

UNLESS there is a Govt. backed cancellation insurance. Booking of acts and things like PAs and stages would now be well advanced and I guess there is a go/no go moment sometime in March/April that is the moment that they can stop everything at minimal cost?

When did 2020 get canned? We locked down some time in March but then after that it's all a bit blurrred...

possibly  the reason the interview was given. Put a bit of pressure on the government to help out the entertainment industry by funding  the insurance  like the German government has done 

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9 minutes ago, Rumblestripe said:

After hearing/reading the Emily interview on t'BBC I feel that it is now in HUGE doubt.

In terms of this year it MIGHT be possible for some smaller fests to go ahead but I think that big ones G, Latt, Downl, etc. are doomed UNLESS there is a Govt. backed cancellation insurance. Booking of acts and things like PAs and stages would now be well advanced and I guess there is a go/no go moment sometime in March/April that is the moment that they can stop everything at minimal cost?

When did 2020 get canned? We locked down some time in March but then after that it's all a bit blurrred...

The issue I have with that part is that if Glastonbury aren’t booking them then who else will be instead? If Glastonbury and lots of other festivals can’t proceed then all of the stuff that needs to be booked won’t be booked, all of the companies involved will very likely be screwed or in a very precarious position.

Glastonbury and other festivals do not exist in a bubble, it is an ecosystem. I think the fact that things would’ve been booked by now is largely irrelevant.

its in everyone’s interests in the chain to be as flexible as possible and to hold out as long as possible, which is probably still a couple of months. Beyond that then yes, there will be a point when serious money needs to start being committed and start changing hands and it becomes far less viable, but it’s in everyone’s interests to delay that as far as they can.

Serious stages as an example provide all the main stages to Glastonbury and the rigging for the Pyramid, etc. Those stages will be pretty useless to them and anyone else if Glastonbury doesn’t go ahead, so no doubt they’ll be as flexible as possible with any deadlines and payments etc. It won’t do them any good to impose deadlines for payments and arbitrary deadlines that they know can’t possibly be met yet.

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