When will this shit end?

[Matt42]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

I’ve no idea who they are asking but they would take a sample of the population. It would be representative, their isn’t a conspiracy to only poll left leaning voters.

 

Biden doesn’t need to swing any Trump voters. Hilary lost because some Dem voters didn’t turn out to vote, all Biden needs to do is get those voters out and he picks up that 1% increase he needs to win.

How can it be a conspiracy when this keeps happening? Would any publication in America seriously want to publish a poll which shows trump leading? 

[zahidf]

12 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Source

I posted the poll a few pages ago. Have a look! It has the cross tabs if you want to who the asked

[stuartbert two hats]

What I suspect/fear will happen is this:

* On election night, Trump will lose the popular vote, but based on electoral college it will be close, with the edge to Trump**.

* It will appear very likely that when the postal votes come in, Biden will

*Trump will call the election for himself.

* The postal votes will come in, Trump will openly do everything he can to suppress to them.

* Biden will win, once the postal votes are counted - even though the numbers will be suspiciously down on what all statistical models predict.

* Someone will post a Twitter thread comparing the American election result to other countries with vote tampering.

* Trump will not accept the win.

* There will be blood, although I've no idea how much, or whose.

* Not every electoral college vote will be cast in line with the total in-person and postal votes.

* The supreme court will be involved.

* Biden will become president in January. America will not be healed.

* Everyone who stayed up to watch the result will be glued to the telly all the next day 😳

Wildcard prediction - one of the supreme court judges will be assassinated. I don't know if anyone is following this, but one of the "conservative" judges is being old school and interpreting the law in a relatively fair minded and objective way. He will not give the election to Trump, although Kavanaugh will try to.

** I suspect to that Trump getting the edge on the electoral college on the night will not affect the rest of my points.

 

 

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

How can it be a conspiracy when this keeps happening? Would any publication in America seriously want to publish a poll which shows trump leading? 

it doesn't keep happening. Polls were right in 2018 for the mid terns and the UK election in 2019

[squirrelarmy]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

There will be blood, although I've no idea how much, or whose.

I don’t know where you get that idea. America is full of sane rational people and hardly anyone owns guns. 

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

What I suspect/fear will happen is this:

* On election night, Trump will lose the popular vote, but based on electoral college it will be close, with the edge to Trump**.

* It will appear very likely that when the postal votes come in, Biden will

*Trump will call the election for himself.

* The postal votes will come in, Trump will openly do everything he can to suppress to them.

* Biden will win, once the postal votes are counted - even though the numbers will be suspiciously down on what all statistical models predict.

* Someone will post a Twitter thread comparing the American election result to other countries with vote tampering.

* Trump will not accept the win.

* There will be blood, although I've no idea how much, or whose.

* Not every electoral college vote will be cast in line with the total in-person and postal votes.

* The supreme court will be involved.

* Biden will become president in January. America will not be healed.

* Everyone who stayed up to watch the result will be glued to the telly all the next day 😳

Wildcard prediction - one of the supreme court judges will be assassinated. I don't know if anyone is following this, but one of the "conservative" judges is being old school and interpreting the law in a relatively fair minded and objective way. He will not give the election to Trump, although Kavanaugh will try to.

** I suspect to that Trump getting the edge on the electoral college on the night will not affect the rest of my points.

 

 

Or, biden wins easily, trump bitches and moans a bit but goes to play golf 24/7 until Jan, and then does some right wing TV station nuttier than Fox

 

Trump is a lazy coward over being a dictator

Edited September 5, 2020 by zahidf

[Matt42]

4 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

I don’t know where you get that idea. America is full of sane rational people and hardly anyone owns guns. 

Is this sarcasm? 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Or, biden wins easily, trump bitches and moans a bit but goes to play golf 24/7 until Jan, and then does some right wing TV station nuttier than Fox

 

Trump is a lazy coward over being a dictator

I like your predictions better.  Hopefully he will go to jail and Barr will follow him.

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Matt42 said:

Is this sarcasm? 

Oh no, definitely not.

[Toilet Duck]

Texas is interesting though, if Biden managed to flip it and simply hold the states Clinton won, that’s exactly 270 electoral college votes right there (assuming in the states where PR is used he gets at least the same share of the vote as Clinton did)...but if you look at the electoral map from 2016 by precinct, rather than by state, then all along the border with Mexico already voted blue last time, as well as San Antonio, Houston, Austin and a chunk of Dallas...so, Biden needs to reverse a trend that has persisted for most elections by swinging non-urban precincts from red to blue. Even in blue states, most of the non-urban precincts vote red...that’s a tough ask (I still think he’ll win, but not by winning Texas)...

 

[Matt42]

My prediction is that trump will win as much, or a few more states than he did in 2016. He will keep major ones that Hilary lost, and Biden will probably win the popular vote by increasing democrat votes in democrat states.

I don’t think there will be a trump landslide, explaining it as “walking it” is probably unfair on my part. I think Trump will basically lose none of his core base - and most who voted trump in 2016 will vote for him again.

Everyone will be reminded that the majority of America is filled with patriotic, gun owning, socialist hating citizens. The democrats again will be scratching their head why these people don’t want to vote for them.

[Losing my hair]

24 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I want Biden to win I just can see exactly how he’s going to lose.

As with all first past the post elections the result will be decided in a few swing states (as in the UK with marginal constituencies). In 2016 Trump manged to narrowly win in  Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and he will need to hold on to these to win. Biden, on the other hand, needs to win back those states along with states like Florida, Arizona, maybe Texas and N Carolina and hang on to marginals like Minnesota and New Hampshire.

To portray it as a fight between urban and rural is naive; it's much more nuanced than that. At this stage the polls mean little and as Trump showed in 2016 it's possible to lose the popular vote but still win.

[Matt42]

how can people look at that and still argue that the democrats don’t have an extremely concentrated vote base and how can they argue that most Americans aren’t typically republican 😂

Quote

 

 

Edited September 5, 2020 by Matt42

[Losing my hair]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

My prediction is that trump will win as much, or a few more states than he did in 2016. He will keep major ones that Hilary lost, and Biden will probably win the popular vote by increasing democrat votes in democrat states.

I don’t think there will be a trump landslide, explaining it as “walking it” is probably unfair on my part. I think Trump will basically lose none of his core base - and most who voted trump in 2016 will vote for him again.

Everyone will be reminded that the majority of America is filled with patriotic, gun owning, socialist hating citizens. The democrats again will be scratching their head why these people don’t want to vote for them.

What data are you basing this prediction on? My son who lives in America is predicting almost the exact opposite.

[Losing my hair]

Just now, Matt42 said:

how can people look at that and still argue that the democrats don’t have and extremely concentrated vote base and how can they argue that most Americans aren’t typically republican 😂

 

Because votes are counted by the number of people who vote , not by the land area they occupy.

[Matt42]

1 minute ago, Losing my hair said:

What data are you basing this prediction on? My son who lives in America is predicting almost the exact opposite.

What data did two hats base his on?

[Toilet Duck]

Just now, Losing my hair said:

Because votes are counted by the number of people who vote , not by the land area they occupy.

Exactly!

[Matt42]

1 minute ago, Losing my hair said:

Because votes are counted by the number of people who vote , not by the land area they occupy.

Isn’t that exactly my point though? Democrat votes are concentrated in specific areas and the rest of the country is overwhelmingly republican. 

This is why the democrats winning the popular vote means jack shit.

Also it’s naive to say that the entirety of the country will have the same interests. Voters in New York will have different needs to voters in other states. This is what leads people to feel like they aren’t represented!

Edited September 5, 2020 by Matt42

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

how can people look at that and still argue that the democrats don’t have and extremely concentrated vote base and how can they argue that most Americans aren’t typically republican 😂

 

*Sigh* those are totally different things and one of them has absolutely nothing to do with the map you posted. I'll tell you how to argue that most Americans aren't typically Republican - look at the previous Presidential election where Trump lost by over 3m votes.

Yes, the Democratic support is concentrated in a few areas. As is the population of the country.

[Losing my hair]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

What data did two hats base his on?

That's not really an answer to my question is it?

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

What data did two hats base his on?

Which bit? I'll get you the data.

[steviewevie]

14 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Or, biden wins easily, trump bitches and moans a bit but goes to play golf 24/7 until Jan, and then does some right wing TV station nuttier than Fox

 

Trump is a lazy coward over being a dictator

definitely the best outcome, a resounding thumping.

[stuartbert two hats]

The problem is, @Matt42, you don't trust the data out there, favouring your gut, so there's absolutely no point pulling out polling data, because you refuse to become familiar enough with it to be able to assess its validity in a given situation. You saw it being "wrong" in the last election so don't care to look at them at all.

[Ozanne]

26 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

How can it be a conspiracy when this keeps happening? Would any publication in America seriously want to publish a poll which shows trump leading? 

I don’t think there is a conspiracy, you seem to think something is going on when it isn’t.

They would publish that poll if there was one. 

[steviewevie]

Well...none of us know...Matt could well be right. The polls at the moment give it to Biden...but they are tightening, and there could well be a whole bunch of people who would never admit to voting for Trump but will. But, Biden is not Hilary Clinton...he has much more appeal to "real" Americans. At same time, he is old, and may well do very badly in the head to head debates to come, we'll have to see. Also...if we keep getting protests and violence this could well help Trump; same if there is a breakthrough in terms of coronavirus cure that he himself invented because he is a genius, sticking sunlight up your arse or something.