When will this shit end?

[Matt42]

18 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Trump has never got above 50% approval ratings...but I think he could well lose the popular vote but win the presidency,

Well yes obviously he won’t win New York and LA

I understand the model isn’t perfect but the spread of votes needs to be federal. Trump knows how to win the right seats in the right places. 
 

As someone who is mostly centrist / centre left, what annoys me about the discourse in the left is that no one wants to acknowledge or discuss the reason why people like trump win. I think we need to talk more about why trump is popular and why people like him - rather than try and carve out this narrative that he is disliked. The left do occupy the media and try and eliminate any discussion of what people like in trump.

What the democrats don’t understand is that they are too metropolitan in their focus, and this leads many Americans to not feel represented by them. At the moment all the protests are happening in democrat states. It’s not going to convince any republican states to switch to democrat.

Joe Biden might sweep up some more votes in democrat states but this won’t do anything to help him in the election. I don’t think Biden appeals to the swing states at all.

[Toilet Duck]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

it was discredited by some right wing press. Didn't the model give a broad range of outcomes, from 10s of thousands to 100s of thousands...all depending on people's behaviour and events.

Pretty much, but widely discredited by the scientific community and widely discredited by people pushing an agenda are two different things! One of which is usually based on actual evidence!

[Ozanne]

Jeez. Even if Trump wins he certainly isn’t going to ‘walk’ the election. That implies a landslide which won’t happen for Trump. Talk about hyperbole.

[zahidf]

9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

NS election forecast model has 82% chance of a Biden win...dropping a percent or two every day...

So? Who cares about a model?

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Well yes obviously he won’t win New York and LA

I understand the model isn’t perfect but the spread of votes needs to be federal. Trump knows how to win the right seats in the right places. 
 

As someone who is mostly centrist / centre left, what annoys me about the discourse in the left is that no one wants to acknowledge or discuss the reason why people like trump win. I think we need to talk more about why trump is popular and why people like him - rather than try and carve out this narrative that he is disliked. The left do occupy the media and try and eliminate any discussion of what people like in trump.

What the democrats don’t understand is that they are too metropolitan in their focus, and this leads many Americans to not feel represented by them. At the moment all the protests are happening in democrat states. It’s not going to convince any republican states to switch to democrat.

Joe Biden might sweep up some more votes in democrat states but this won’t do anything to help him in the election. I don’t think Biden appeals to the swing states at all.

And what are these 'concerns' of trump voters? 

[Matt42]

Just now, Ozanne said:

Jeez. Even if Trump wins he certainly isn’t going to ‘walk’ the election. That implies a landslide which won’t happen for Trump. Talk about hyperbole.

We’ll see on Election Day but I really do think he will walk the election. 
 

It will be the riots and protests which really lose it for the democrats

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

We’ll see on Election Day but I really do think he will walk the election. 
 

It will be the riots and protests which really lose it for the democrats

He didn’t even walk the last election. Even if he wins it, it’ll be very close. 
All polling/models indicate a Biden win, all he needs to do is increase the Dem vote share by 1% to win the White House. 

[Matt42]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

And what are these 'concerns' of trump voters? 

Biden and China

Biden and BLM

General distrust of the democrats

American nationalism

the fact riots are happening in democrat states

Biden increasing taxes

The fact that most Americans outside of major cities are usually republican 

+ the batshit QAnon lot and what they fear.

 

Speak to real Americans to get a sense of what they feel. Not the ones in metropolitan areas interviewed by CNN.

[Ozanne]

Just now, Matt42 said:

Biden and China

Biden and BLM

General distrust of the democrats

American nationalism

the fact riots are happening in democrat states

Biden increasing taxes

The fact that most Americans outside of major cities are usually republican 

+ the batshit QAnon lot and what they fear.

 

Speak to real Americans to get a sense of what they feel. Not the ones in metropolitan areas interviewed by CNN.

It sounds like you have a problem with Biden 😆

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Biden and China

Biden and BLM

General distrust of the democrats

American nationalism

the fact riots are happening in democrat states

Biden increasing taxes

The fact that most Americans outside of major cities are usually republican 

+ the batshit QAnon lot and what they fear.

 

Speak to real Americans to get a sense of what they feel. Not the ones in metropolitan areas interviewed by CNN.

And race.

[Matt42]

Just now, Ozanne said:

He didn’t even walk the last election. Even if he wins it, it’ll be very close. 
All polling/models indicate a Biden win, all he needs to do is increase the Dem vote share by 1% to win the White House. 

Who are these polls asking and what is the demographic of the participants?

Election polls have always been weighted towards Democrat. Mostly because those publishing the polls have been democrats themselves.

Democrats are far more likely to win the popular vote as their strongholds are concentrated in highly populated cities. Biden isn’t a threat to trump unless he makes gains in the areas that Trump does well in.

[philipsteak]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Biden and China

Biden and BLM

General distrust of the democrats

American nationalism

the fact riots are happening in democrat states

Biden increasing taxes

The fact that most Americans outside of major cities are usually republican 

+ the batshit QAnon lot and what they fear.

 

Speak to real Americans to get a sense of what they feel. Not the ones in metropolitan areas interviewed by CNN.

"real" Americans? So the ones who live in cities aren't real Americans?

 

[Matt42]

1 minute ago, philipsteak said:

"real" Americans? So the ones who live in cities aren't real Americans?

 

“Real” is probably the wrong word sorry. Il replace that with “rural”.

[Matt42]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It sounds like you have a problem with Biden 😆

I want Biden to win I just can see exactly how he’s going to lose.

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Biden and China

Biden and BLM

General distrust of the democrats

American nationalism

the fact riots are happening in democrat states

Biden increasing taxes

The fact that most Americans outside of major cities are usually republican 

+ the batshit QAnon lot and what they fear.

 

Speak to real Americans to get a sense of what they feel. Not the ones in metropolitan areas interviewed by CNN.

Those sound like republican talking points rather than factual things.

You know they are a lot of cities in even the swing states?

The polls are showing most people blame truml for inflating racial tensions and that biden makes them feel safer. 

[philipsteak]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

“Real” is probably the wrong word sorry. Il replace that with “rural”.

But it's a word, and a distinction that, say, Trump and his supporters would use

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Who are these polls asking and what is the demographic of the participants?

Election polls have always been weighted towards Democrat. Mostly because those publishing the polls have been democrats themselves.

Democrats are far more likely to win the popular vote as their strongholds are concentrated in highly populated cities. Biden isn’t a threat to trump unless he makes gains in the areas that Trump does well in.

Like him being 3 ahead in texas?

 

[Matt42]

Just now, zahidf said:

Like him being 3 ahead in texas?

 

Source

[Matt42]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Those sound like republican talking points rather than factual things.

You know they are a lot of cities in even the swing states?

The polls are showing most people blame truml for inflating racial tensions and that biden makes them feel safer. 

You people with these views vote don’t you? 

[steviewevie]

19 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

As someone who is mostly centrist / centre left, what annoys me about the discourse in the left is that no one wants to acknowledge or discuss the reason why people like trump win. I think we need to talk more about why trump is popular and why people like him - rather than try and carve out this narrative that he is disliked. The left do occupy the media and try and eliminate any discussion of what people like in trump.

 

because they're a bit racist?

[Matt42]

Just now, steviewevie said:

because they're a bit racist?

And they vote

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

"real" Americans? So the ones who live in cities aren't real Americans?

 

this usually means white...right?

[Ozanne]

10 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Who are these polls asking and what is the demographic of the participants?

Election polls have always been weighted towards Democrat. Mostly because those publishing the polls have been democrats themselves.

Democrats are far more likely to win the popular vote as their strongholds are concentrated in highly populated cities. Biden isn’t a threat to trump unless he makes gains in the areas that Trump does well in.

I’ve no idea who they are asking but they would take a sample of the population. It would be representative, their isn’t a conspiracy to only poll left leaning voters.

 

Biden doesn’t need to swing any Trump voters. Hilary lost because some Dem voters didn’t turn out to vote, all Biden needs to do is get those voters out and he picks up that 1% increase he needs to win.

[steviewevie]

20 minutes ago, zahidf said:

So? Who cares about a model?

depends if she's looking good.

[Matt42]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

this usually means white...right?

Not at all - I see it more as a metropolitan v rural thing