When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Not with such a low level of infection no.

Infections are dropping nationally which is the main thing, our behaviour as a population as a whole is not driving infections up.

The R number is important across the country, but locally we’re going to get breakouts now, this will drive the R number up in those places, but the actual amount of extra cases could still be very low.

Those regional R numbers include care homes, so a breakout in a care home could push the R up in that region but it’s not an issue at a national level and easily dealt with at a local level.

So it's not an important metric when it suits them not to be one. You'd be forgiven for thinking it was the most important aspect all round considering the CMO said it was. Silly me for taking them at their word.

 

I bet of the R was going down we would be hearing all about it and you wouldn't having to now defend why it isn't important in these specific circumstances. We've gotta do all we can to make the sure government aren't wrong hey.

[Wellyboot]

44 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

On other news I live in the North West so not happy with R number revisions announced today  

Me too

 

[Ozanne]

6 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

A lot higher than yesterday. Seems very up and down at the moment.

It's clearly under control, lets continue to relax measures. 

[Crazyfool01]

I wonder how many times during these briefings they have said .... we are working very hard ... or we are working night and day !!

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

I wonder how many times during these briefings they have said .... we are working very hard ... or we are working night and day !!

They also like 'we've been very clear'.

[Crazyfool01]

Lockdown in Weston ? what utter bollocks !! they closed the hospital thats it !!!

[Crazyfool01]

we are able to look at local lockdowns but look at the national R !!!

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Infections are the main thing and as long as they’re dropping that is the important thing.

Death figures are all over the place, some of the 357 today date back to April and even March.

If it’s any comfort for people, if we adopted Spain’s method for reporting deaths we’d have reported 20 today:

 

[steviewevie]

If only they locked down London back in March.

[steviewevie]

I tell you what, I've become a raging alcoholic during lockdown.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

I tell you what, I've become a raging alcoholic during lockdown.

from 5pm on weekdays ? and 4pm at weekends ? 

[fred quimby]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

I tell you what, I've become a raging alcoholic during lockdown.

I was doing so well this year . Only drinking on Saturday and was moving to every other Saturday. Out the fucking window since lock down. trying to claw may way back again.

[Ozanne]

It's infections now guys we have to be most concerned, infections are the most important metric. We need to keep up the ever moving goal posts. Isn't it convenient that the most important metric is the only one that's falling.

 

Come on guys keep up, it's not the R rate even though they said explicitly it was. It's not death rates even though they are going up and compared them for weeks against other countries. I'm just glad we have people on here that can keep us on track.

[Cream Soda]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

from 5pm on weekdays ? and 4pm at weekends ? 

Anything goes on weekends at the moment

[Paul ™]

1 hour ago, shoptildrop said:

We're unfortunately nearly there based on ONS data, excess deaths up to 22nd May are just shy of 50K, but if you split that data between week 1 and 13 which had under 5K deaths less than average and week 14 to 22 then excess deaths for the 2nd period if over 56K  

That number was for England only am sure, the UK as a whole are already over 62k sadly. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

20 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

So it's not an important metric when it suits them not to be one. You'd be forgiven for thinking it was the most important aspect all round considering the CMO said it was. Silly me for taking them at their word.

 

I bet of the R was going down we would be hearing all about it and you wouldn't having to now defend why it isn't important in these specific circumstances. We've gotta do all we can to make the sure government aren't wrong hey.

But I think it is very important but in a different way. In places like South Korea when they have an outbreak the R in that region would be high but it doesn’t mean they have a problem overall.

If the R is high in certain regions that’s useful and important information, but nationally if the R is still below 1 then it’s not really important in terms of our overall behaviours.

There is also a key difference pre and post epidemic, when cases were rising we were testing hardly anyone and had no clue what regional rates were, we just knew the R was above one nationally and we had to get it down using lockdown.

Now we have regional and national data, the national R still has the same importance but the regional ones don’t and are to expected because we will have localised outbreaks, which is where track and trace and localised quarantines come in.

[Ozanne]

7 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

But I think it is very important but in a different way. In places like South Korea when they have an outbreak the R in that region would be high but it doesn’t mean they have a problem overall.

If the R is high in certain regions that’s useful and important information, but nationally if the R is still below 1 then it’s not really important in terms of our overall behaviours.

There is also a key difference pre and post epidemic, when cases were rising we were testing hardly anyone and had no clue what regional rates were, we just knew the R was above one nationally and we had to get it down using lockdown.

Now we have regional and national data, the national R still has the same importance but the regional ones don’t and are to expected because we will have localised outbreaks, which is where track and trace and localised quarantines come in.

It’s not just me that thinks this, it’s being said on national news. They hammered home the R number for weeks and now it’s going up they change how important it is. 
 

Of course the R is still important it still means there’s transmission in the community. Why don’t you go up to Liverpool then and tell people up there that it’s not important? People seem to be pretty concerned about this in those areas. If those people get sick and end up in hospital do you think it’ll be important to them then? I’m concerned for those people in that area, it’s a shame not everyone is. 

Edited June 5, 2020 by Ozanne

[steviewevie]

24 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

from 5pm on weekdays ? and 4pm at weekends ? 

yes, how the fuck did you know that?!

[Ozanne]

Just now, steviewevie said:

yes, how the fuck did you know that?!

You'll be pleased to know that you won't have that issue at weekend anymore.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s not just me that thinks this, it’s being said on national news. They hammered home the R number for weeks and now it’s going up they change how important it is. 
 

Of course the R is still important it still means there’s transmission in the community. Why don’t you go up to Liverpool then and tell people up there that it’s not important? People seem to be pretty concerned about this in those areas. If those people get sick and end up in hospital do you think it’ll be important to them then? I’m concerned for those people in that area, it’s a shame not everyone is. 

 

But the R overall is not going up, it’s going down. Based on the latest ONS data published today which is the most up to date information we have, infections are down again on the previous week. So logically the R nationally is decreasing.

The R has gone up in some regions which is important, but of completely different relevance to the national R.

The R going up regionally is still not an issue if it’s not above 1, cases are still falling. If it’s gone above 1 it could still mean a relatively small increase in cases because the infection rate is so low at the moment. 
 

Edit, actually ignore the first paragraph, the R could still rise nationally and cases fall, they just fall at a slower rate.

Edited June 5, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[stuartbert two hats]

I get that the R number isn't so important when infections are low.  But they're not all that low at the moment are they?  We're not into data noise territory.  If the R number is over 1, it's getting worse.  So where I live in the NW, it's getting less safe, not more safe. 

[DareToDibble]

My friend has just sent me this video. I am convinced Hancock isn’t human.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

12 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I get that the R number isn't so important when infections are low.  But they're not all that low at the moment are they?  We're not into data noise territory.  If the R number is over 1, it's getting worse.  So where I live in the NW, it's getting less safe, not more safe. 

If the R has risen but remains at 1 or less they risk isn’t changing or still getting safer but more slowly.

Edit: Sorry ignore me, missed the bit about you saying R is above 1

Edited June 5, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Ozanne]

12 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

But the R overall is not going up, it’s going down. Based on the latest ONS data published today which is the most up to date information we have, infections are down again on the previous week. So logically the R nationally is decreasing.

The R has gone up in some regions which is important, but of completely different relevance to the national R.

The R going up regionally is still not an issue if it’s not above 1, cases are still falling. If it’s gone above 1 it could still mean a relatively small increase in cases because the infection rate is so low at the moment. 
 

Edit, actually ignore the first paragraph, the R could still rise nationally and cases fall, they just fall at a slower rate.

As I said, very convenient that they can now say the R isn't the most important figure and not be wrong. 

 

Again tell people that live in that area that the R going up isn't an issue for them, it clearly is an issue for people in that area. People that now are feeling (from comments online) that as the government were touting the R as the most important figure they should now be acting on measures in those areas. The government won't because they are desperate for things to get back to normal, and for bosses to get paid again. That's the reason they have move the goalposts yet again.

 

After all this, after all the mistakes people are still defending them. 357 people died in the last 24 hours yet we still get people defending the party line. 

[Mr.Tease]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

As I said, very convenient that they can now say the R isn't the most important figure and not be wrong. 

 

Once again they're doing the old bait and switch. They've gone from insisting the R rating is the thing that matters, then when that went bad, to 'other measures live the 5 levels, then when that stayed bad they went back to R rating being the be all and end all, and now that's bad, they're saying it's not important anymore. An absolute joke.