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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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18 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

This is heartbreaking to see :( I just don't get how people see this as a bad flu or even worse a hoax??

 

 

It depends who you are really, if you’re relatively healthy and under 45 the chances are that it will be a lot less serious than a bad flu and in fact in many cases asymptomatic.

If you’re older and have additional health conditions there is a greater chance it will be more serious or even deadly, but still not in the majority of cases.

Describing it is flu is certainly too much of a broad brush description, they aren’t really comparable. But equally the outcomes in that video are still the exception rather than the norm. If you’re in an ICU bed or on a ventilator for any reason then you’ll likely need rehabilitation like that. 

 

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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13 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

This is heartbreaking to see :( I just don't get how people see this as a bad flu or even worse a hoax??

 

 

It's crazy isn't it. But it happens for many reasons. Not that many people have seen this side of hospital care so it's quite easy to dismiss something as 'a bit like the flu' forgetting that every year people (young as well) die from 'the flu'. Exceptionalism, we never think it'll be us, 'I'll be fine mate'. Sometimes a hoax is easier to believe than the truth. Hoaxers often tell stories easier to believe (more acceptable?) than the experts. ICU is a pretty brutal experience for most patients, most people would rather not be confronted with the reality of what happens. 

Edited by semmtexx
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5 hours ago, Ozanne said:

I think some people call it a flu as a form of defence mechanism and for self reassurance.

I still think people call it flu as that's the common word for serious respiratory disease, if it's mild it's a cold if it's serious it's flu. Hence flu season kills thousands every year and our touchstone for a pandemic is Spanish Flu. 

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7 hours ago, semmtexx said:

Having been there agreed, though now thinking about it I quite fancy a plate of meatballs and chips! Plus jam obvs. 

I'm assuming the cafe isn't open, though, except maybe for takeaway? But hard to see how that would work.

Can't think of anything worse than going to Ikea on any weekend, particularly queuing in the heat for hours. Absolute madness. Perhaps this bodes well for the economy, though, in that some people really miss shops.

I'm another one who has been saving as a result of this (working from home and not spending much at all). But I won't I'm afraid be rushing out to boost the economy with consumption. I'm too worried about what's round the corner and whether or not I'll keep working to go on any kind of splurge. I'm sure some people will, the question is how many.

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2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I'm assuming the cafe isn't open, though, except maybe for takeaway? But hard to see how that would work.

Can't think of anything worse than going to Ikea on any weekend, particularly queuing in the heat for hours. Absolute madness. Perhaps this bodes well for the economy, though, in that some people really miss shops.

I'm another one who has been saving as a result of this (working from home and not spending much at all). But I won't I'm afraid be rushing out to boost the economy with consumption. I'm too worried about what's round the corner and whether or not I'll keep working to go on any kind of splurge. I'm sure some people will, the question is how many.

yeah, this. If see economy going belly up even those in work will be reluctant to spend just in case they will lose their job...that's how I feel. The downturn from this coronavirus will hopefully be short lived, or it may drag on...and we also have brexit at the end of the year which will either be no deal, or a very thin trade deal and not much else.

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3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, this. If see economy going belly up even those in work will be reluctant to spend just in case they will lose their job...that's how I feel. The downturn from this coronavirus will hopefully be short lived, or it may drag on...and we also have brexit at the end of the year which will either be no deal, or a very thin trade deal and not much else.

Yeah I was already worried about Brexit as well. I won't be booking any big holidays or anything for this year, much as I'd love to get away.

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17 minutes ago, jparx said:

Shady as fuck. Funny how "we will hand over your personal data to private firms" wasn't in their manifesto.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jun/02/ai-firm-that-worked-with-vote-leave-wins-new-coronavirus-contract

It’s not surprising at all. Definitely not installing any government designed app on my phone now. 

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22 minutes ago, jparx said:

Shady as fuck. Funny how "we will hand over your personal data to private firms" wasn't in their manifesto.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jun/02/ai-firm-that-worked-with-vote-leave-wins-new-coronavirus-contract

I've been reading up on this recently: Cummings and Gove using AI firms to build up a national database based on our confidential NHS records (IIRC). 

This is something of a hobbyhorse for them, what with Cummings having illegally borrowed a data firm from Trump's biggest backer and Breitbart owner Robert Mercer to send 1bn targeted Facebook ads for Vote Leave. He ultimately ended up being done for electoral fraud for this (and didn't even turn up at the hearing). (Farage borrowed one from Mercer too.)

Edited by Homer
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8 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It depends who you are really, if you’re relatively healthy and under 45 the chances are that it will be a lot less serious than a bad flu and in fact in many cases asymptomatic.

If you’re older and have additional health conditions there is a greater chance it will be more serious or even deadly, but still not in the majority of cases.

I think the media has a lot to answer for regarding how people see the virus.  There seem to be two extreme opinions among the public, either it's nothing more than flu and nothing to worry about, or it's a guaranteed death sentence and you are frightened every time you go outside.  I think the media definitely likes to whip up the fear and those people who try play it down are maybe responding to what they can see the media doing but they are swinging too far the other way.  The reality lies somewhere in the middle and will depend on loads of factors, like your health/age, etc.  I think if we're going to move forward we have to accept that individuals are going to have to take different approaches to the situation and they are at massively varying levels of risk and one size doesn't fit all with regards to locking down, etc.  If the media reported a more balanced and realistic view of the situation maybe people wouldn't be so divided over it.

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9 hours ago, mattiloy said:

Yes sir.

It is precisely because you have more money in your pocket that the economy will take a hit. When people stop spending, businesses make less money, then they go under, then unemployment rises, tax receipts will be down and govt spending is ofc increased dramatically. So we’ll be in a position where we have low consumption, high unemployment, yooooooge public debt.

There is of course a lag for macro effects to result in businesses laying people off and an extra one now because of furlough, so right now it feels like nothing has changed but sadly it is coming.

Ultimately though, as my first economics tutor used to say ‘economics is like driving whilst using only the rear view mirror’. This is a unique situation so it’s hard to know what the full effects will be and how severe they will be. From some of the opinions I’ve read, a worst case scenario would be normal recessiony things- but consumption and confidence takes much longer time to recover because the economy doesnt fully open for long, unemployment rises even higher, investment decreases, and then if some medium term disruption to supply chains causes inflationary pressures at the same time then we’re potentially also looking down the barrel of a depression with some 70s style stagflation in the recovery. In the UK all of this could be exacerbated by brexit too.
 

Rosier forecasters say most of the lost consumption is just pent up consumption and these lean months will be followed by some frenzied bumper consumption once corona is done and that the govt will bridge the gap in between. In my experience as an observer, as a somewhat educated guess is that it’ll be something in between. Not a depression but a bit of a recession with some long lasting/permanent impact particularly in industries which have been very exposed (for sure airlines amongst others). But I’d qualify that opinion and say that its still very contingent on what the virus does and how governments respond in the next 18 months.

Do you have any opinion on what might happen to the housing market?  I am house hunting at the moment and I can't see prices going down where I live as whenever anything decent comes up it is pounced on and sells within days or sometimes hours of coming on.  I think enough competition is there to prevent any real dip in prices, at least where I live. 

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4 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

Do you have any opinion on what might happen to the housing market?  I am house hunting at the moment and I can't see prices going down where I live as whenever anything decent comes up it is pounced on and sells within days or sometimes hours of coming on.  I think enough competition is there to prevent any real dip in prices, at least where I live. 

House prices have got to be dropping surely? I'd wait until NY when No Deal happens if I were you.

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9 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

Do you have any opinion on what might happen to the housing market?  I am house hunting at the moment and I can't see prices going down where I live as whenever anything decent comes up it is pounced on and sells within days or sometimes hours of coming on.  I think enough competition is there to prevent any real dip in prices, at least where I live. 

Today’s bbc news website ... you timed that well House prices see largest monthly fall for 11 years, says Nationwide https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52888991

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2 minutes ago, Homer said:

House prices have got to be dropping surely? I'd wait until NY when No Deal happens if I were you.

I've seen no real change in my area (yet).  The problem is I've been looking for ages and can't find anything I like so if something does come along I'm going to have to just go for it.  Isn't it a good time to buy now with the low interest rates?  

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3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Today’s bbc news website ... you timed that well House prices see largest monthly fall for 11 years, says Nationwide https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52888991

I'm a first time buyer and know nothing about how it all works really.  Just hope I might benefit from the situation somehow, but if a house I like comes up I'm not getting to let it pass me by after looking for a over a year.  Realised now more than I ever that I need a garden ASAP 🤣

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2 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

I've seen no real change in my area (yet).  The problem is I've been looking for ages and can't find anything I like so if something does come along I'm going to have to just go for it.  Isn't it a good time to buy now with the low interest rates?  

You may see no real change in what they are for sale for but you might find a difference in what people are willing to accept. When I bought my first house it was during a boom and we went to see it and offered the asking price straightaway whereas my second house very few people were offering asking price and there was definitely wiggle room on price. 

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1 minute ago, gigpusher said:

You may see no real change in what they are for sale for but you might find a difference in what people are willing to accept. When I bought my first house it was during a boom and we went to see it and offered the asking price straightaway whereas my second house very few people were offering asking price and there was definitely wiggle room on price. 

I've been monitoring houses that I've had my eye on and I've seen very few go for below the asking price in over a year.  I missed out on a house early on as I wanted a second viewing, didn't even get the chance to as they had already received multiple offers over the asking price - this was on the first day on the market! 😔 I hope it doesn't make the situation here worse, which I suppose it could do if fewer people put their houses on the market leading to even more competition.

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Lots of considerations with house prices, they will likely drop but it’s way too early to tell.

At the moment you’ll just be getting the necessary sales going through, then it will be wait in see.

Its worth remembering an Englishman’s home is his Castle, people get very funny about the value of their house, is everybody suddenly going to slash 10/20% of the value of their home? No of course not, not if they don’t need to, so for many it will be wait and see for a while. This more applies to those already on the market rather than those yet to look at selling. But in many scenarios a lot of vendors will just hold out if they can’t get the price they thought they could and then you just get a rebound in prices further on down the line.

The other consideration is first time buyers and new builds, this is all linked to the economy and what happens if with jobs, so again it’s too early to tell.

Lenders hate new builds because they’re difficult to value, when the crisis hit many dropped their LTVs to 60% which would price most first time buyers out, so immediately who does this benefit? Rich people who don’t need a mortgage who can buy them up and rent them out further decreasing supply. The knock on effect of this is that if it’s harder to get a mortgage in a new build then they stop being built, again hitting supply.

The other issue is that if houses prices are falling rapidly then the above regarding LTVs applies across the board, everyone will need a massive deposit so it prices all the first time buyers out completely.

The strength of the economy is directly linked to people’s ability to obtain a mortgage and the size of the deposit they need, so houses may become cheaper but proportionately less obtainable for many.

So in short way too early to tell, we need to see how the economy reacts, what happens with the labour market and how lenders then respond. I suspect a drop of about 10% over time and then a rebound higher later on is most likely, but a huge drop is ultimately not going to help people at the start of the chain. 

 

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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29 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

I've seen no real change in my area (yet).  The problem is I've been looking for ages and can't find anything I like so if something does come along I'm going to have to just go for it.  Isn't it a good time to buy now with the low interest rates?  

wont' interest rates be kept low for some time to help with all the borrowing being done by govts.

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27 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

I've seen no real change in my area (yet).  The problem is I've been looking for ages and can't find anything I like so if something does come along I'm going to have to just go for it.  Isn't it a good time to buy now with the low interest rates?  

I had a mortgage lender valuer come around last week as I am remortgaging. He said that there is almost a sense of stasis at the moment as no-one knows what is happening. But no-one is buying (or, I imagine, even viewing) currently. So he said they were just currently just accepting recent valuation prices at face value (we had our place valued by our estate agent just before covid hit and he accepted that valuation).

We would like to move somewhere bigger (we were about to put on offer in on a place in March!). I am convinced there will be a drop though, as evidenced above, and we won;t be selling our place any time soon, I wouldn't imagine.

Yes, interest rates are very low (you can fix your rate if you like). There has been talk of slashing them even further to encourage spending though.

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37 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

I've seen no real change in my area (yet).  The problem is I've been looking for ages and can't find anything I like so if something does come along I'm going to have to just go for it.  Isn't it a good time to buy now with the low interest rates?  

We started the application for a new build back at the start of March and the whole thing has been held up. Hoping to finally move in July. A bit concerned the prices on the development might tumble in the next 6 months and we suddenly had a raw deal, but that's hard to predict.

It's a great time to get a 5 year fixed rate deal with the low interest rates though. If you've got a lot of savings ready to go, obviously you'll be getting very little interest on that now but the flip side is how cheap it is to borrow, so it's a good time to be getting a mortgage (if your financial situation is stable!).

Edited by jparx
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3 minutes ago, jparx said:

We started the application for a new build back at the start of March and the whole thing has been held up. Hoping to finally move in July. A bit concerned the prices on the development might tumble in the next 6 months and we suddenly had a raw deal, but that's hard to predict.

It's a great time to get a 5 year fixed rate deal with the low interest rates though. If you've got a lot of savings ready to go, obviously you'll be getting very little interest on that now but the flip side is how cheap it is to borrow, so it's a good time to be getting a mortgage (if your financial situation is stable!).

I guess if you like the house and plan to stay in it for a while then even if prices do drop, they'll eventually creep back up again.  Any house I buy will be for the long term so I'm trying not to think about it too much.  Hope your sale goes through smoothly.

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