semmtexx

Must confess to feeling like this isn't going to happen. Not because we miss out in the resale but because we're all going to miss out on glasto 2020. Still - the PMA here is focus on the October 'resale'! Or perhaps the real PMA is focus on looking after our friends and loved ones in these times that are frightening for many people. 🥰

Agreed. 100%.

I was trying from Gay Parie. No luck unfortunately.

To be fair I'm not sure it's different from usual. People talk staggering bollocks on music, why should it be any different about epidemiology! 😆

Have posted mortality. Far too late too attempt adjustment!

Baseline characteristics Confirmed cases; n (%) Deaths; n (%) Case fatality rate, % Overall 44,672 1,023 2.3% Age, years 　0–9 416 (0.9%) − − 　10–19 549 (1.2%) 1 (0.1%) 0.2% 　20–29 3,619 (8.1%) 7 (0.7%) 0.2% 　30–39 7,600 (17.0%) 18 (1.8%) 0.2% 　40–49 8,571 (19.2%) 38 (3.7%) 0.4% 　50–59 10,008 (22.4%) 130 (12.7%) 1.3% 　60–69 8,583 (19.2%) 309 (30.2%) 3.6% 　70–79 3,918 (8.8%) 312 (30.5%) 8.0% 　≥80 1,408 (3.2%) 208 (20.3%) 14.8% Sex 　Male 22,981 (51.4%) 653 (63.8%) 2.8% 　Female 21,691 (48.6%) 370 (36.2%) 1.7% Comorbid condition† 　Hypertension 2,683 (12.8%) 161 (39.7%) 6.0% 　Diabetes 1,102 (5.3%) 80 (19.7%) 7.3% 　Cardiovascular disease 873 (4.2%) 92 (22.7%) 10.5% 　Chronic respiratory disease 511 (2.4%) 32 (7.9%) 6.3% 　Cancer (any) 107 (0.5%) 6 (1.5%) 5.6% 　None 15,536 (74.0%) 133 (32.8%) 0.9% 　Missing 23,690 (53.0%) 617 (60.3%) 2.6% Case severity§ 　Mild 36,160 (80.9%) − − 　Severe 6,168 (13.8%) − − 　Critical 2,087 (4.7%) 1,023 (100%) 49.0% 　Missing 257 (0.6%) − − Period (by date of onset) 　Before Dec 31, 2019 104 (0.2%) 15 (1.5%) 14.4% 　Jan 1–10, 2020 653 (1.5%) 102 (10.0%) 15.6% 　Jan 11–20, 2020 5,417 (12.1%) 310 (30.3%) 5.7% 　Jan 21–31, 2020 26,468 (59.2%) 494 (48.3%) 1.9% 　After Feb 1, 2020 12,030 (26.9%) 102 (10.0%) 0.8% Table 2. Patients, deaths, and case fatality rates, as well as observed time and mortality for n=44,672 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Mainland China as of February 11, 2020. Modified from http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/TrackingtheEpidemic.htm. It's a bit old now but detailed.

China has some good data. State perhaps interested in suppression. Chinese doctors less so. Wouldn't simply discount it. http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/TrackingtheEpidemic.htm

This is where the gloriously poorly titled 'gig economy' comes crashing down. Who'd have thought workers rights and crazy ideas like sick pay were reasonable eh?!

Hahaha! Law of unintended consequences right here!

You're stuffed! 🤣 😷

Also to give a rough idea of what numbers we're taking about. The biggest killer in the UK is split between cancer and circulatory type disease. Roughly 150 thousand people in the UK die from circulatory disease, that means heart attacks, strokes etc. The health service doesn't fall apart. What's different is the type (respiratory) and the timescale (maybe 3 months). Cancer type illness, also about 150k. I understand everyone's concern here because it is frightening (even if unlikely to impact on you directly) but the best thing you could do to protect yourself? Give up smoking. Much much much more likely to actually harm you.

I'd imagine so but I've not seen any data about this. I suspect we'll not know for a while but it would seem like a fair assumption.

And the point is coronavirus is likely (?) to take out a lot of these already vulnerable people, rather than a completely new cohort.

Respiratory illness kills about 70 or so thousand each year. OK so my figures not quite exact (and you might convince me to retract the happy statement!!) but similarish order of magnitude.

Extra deaths over normal respiratory illness.