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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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14 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Sturgeon says the Scottish government is hoping to get back to carrying out around 400,000 vaccinations per week by mid-April. That depends on supply, she says.

And she says she wants every adult in Scotland to have had their first dose of vaccine by the end of July. She is “reasonably confident” she can meet that, she says.

Stench of a ramping up is getting stronger

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22 hours ago, zahidf said:

@Toilet Duck did you see this? Some interesting potential studies on mixing vaccine doses

 

So, hadn't had a chance to get back to this question, but I've just had a lecture for the last hour from one of the chief investigators on the Oxford vaccine describing their work over the last year (and the 20 years prior!) on how they developed the Oxford vaccine, where things are going and all the challenges they have faced (and continue to face)...fascinating stuff. Anyway, rather than give my opinion on it, his take was that if you asked him before they started what the best approach might be, he would have said what the Russians did (two different vectors). They didn't go down that route as it means two separate vaccines need to be manufactured (complicating the logistics further down the line) and when they looked at their pre-clinical data, the anti-vector vaccine response existed, but had little impact, so they stuck with two doses of the same vector (they also started out making a 1 dose vaccine, but put in lots of different combinations at the start and it became clear that 2 was going to be better). Anyway, in terms of the strength and durability of the immune response, his take was that boosting with a different vaccine should actually be the best strategy so that's why they are looking at combining with Pfizer and others to see how it works. They are also looking at how well a variant vaccine against Brazil/SA variants protects against the original strain and the UK variant and if the updated one gives just as good protection against all variants, then they'll probably just switch all production to the updated one. They expect to have the data to support that by May or June. Also expect to boost those most vulnerable with an updated one later in the year, but shouldn't be required for most people.

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38 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Well fuck me sideways. Panic merchant Eric Feigl-Ding, the single worst member of the variant porn clown collective, moves from the USA to Austria and regularly travels between them DURING A WHOLE ASS PANDEMIC (!!!) to get his kids into in-person schooling while publicly being one of the loudest advocates for closing schools in the states.

 

I think we can all agree that Feigl-Ding is a total Walter Mitty and we can take anything he says with a pinch of salt. 

8796F74F-FA87-43EE-AB35-993359F468DA.png

 

If anyone wasn't aware of the far-right rabbit-hole which Fuzzy Afro lives in, take a look at that Jordan Schachtel's twitter feed, including the comments from his Trump-loving, consipiracy-believing followers.  This is a regular occurrence with Fuzzy Afro - previous gems he's shared with us include far-right antifa-bashing, far-right climate-change deniers and basically anything which a red-capped angry American would be proud of.  He's got a right to post it, but we need to recognise it for what it is - the far right are adept at capitalising on people's frustrations, and they're doing pretty well with this 'zero covid' straw man they're building up in order to get us spitting at scientists and gravitating towards their MAGA, no-masks, stop the steal world.

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5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

So, hadn't had a chance to get back to this question, but I've just had a lecture for the last hour from one of the chief investigators on the Oxford vaccine describing their work over the last year (and the 20 years prior!) on how they developed the Oxford vaccine, where things are going and all the challenges they have faced (and continue to face)...fascinating stuff. Anyway, rather than give my opinion on it, his take was that if you asked him before they started what the best approach might be, he would have said what the Russians did (two different vectors). They didn't go down that route as it means two separate vaccines need to be manufactured (complicating the logistics further down the line) and when they looked at their pre-clinical data, the anti-vector vaccine response existed, but had little impact, so they stuck with two doses of the same vector (they also started out making a 1 dose vaccine, but put in lots of different combinations at the start and it became clear that 2 was going to be better). Anyway, in terms of the strength and durability of the immune response, his take was that boosting with a different vaccine should actually be the best strategy so that's why they are looking at combining with Pfizer and others to see how it works. They are also looking at how well a variant vaccine against Brazil/SA variants protects against the original strain and the UK variant and if the updated one gives just as good protection against all variants, then they'll probably just switch all production to the updated one. They expect to have the data to support that by May or June. Also expect to boost those most vulnerable with an updated one later in the year, but shouldn't be required for most people.

Interesting - that will probably affect vaccine uptake, so more need for the strict vaccine passports. Plenty are happy with AZ but want to avoid an mrna one, it sounds like there wont be a choice in the matter now 

Edit- I mean 2nd dose uptake

Though the question about supply is there - don't we have more AZ and quicker?

Edited by efcfanwirral
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Just now, efcfanwirral said:

Interesting - that will probably affect vaccine uptake, so more need for the strict vaccine passports. Plenty are happy with AZ but want to avoid an mrna one, it sounds like there wont be a choice in the matter now 

They are also looking at using the Janssen one for a subsequent boost, so that would be two adenovirus vectored vaccines (the first of which was put into a human in 1991, so we have 30 years of follow up safety data!). 

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1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

I think the residual social distancing thing is important. I don't think it's as scary as it sounds. Social distancing includes a lot of different things, and some just won't be residual: people will go meet their friends and family and be in close proximity to them.

Where we will see residual impacts, that will be beneficial, is with interactions with strangers. It will maybe stop being the norm to shake the hand of every single person you meet in a business context. Or at least it'll no longer be seen a bit rude to say "ah, I won't, I have a sniffle".

When you're in a supermarket, and someone else is at the shelf you want, looking at it, maybe you'll wait until they're done rather than leaning in front of them to get your milk.

If you're in town and want to get past someone but can't without brushing against them, maybe you'll just wait instead. 

None of this will make your life loads worse, but this, plus people being more aware of what surfaces they're touching, and washing their hands, will add up to a decent impact on all infectious disease.

If there are any social distancing guidelines still in place by September I would imagine them to be:

  • Wear a mask on public transport if you're ill or have a cough
  • Don't touch strangers

I'd argue these are things we should have already been doing out of politeness anyway. And if this pandemic makes these two things the norm then at least it will have done something good. Most of my female friends are perfectly happy to never get back to the "normal" of being touched by men they don't know in pubs and bars.

I am will fight to my dying day for the right to touch strangers 🙂

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20 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

So, hadn't had a chance to get back to this question, but I've just had a lecture for the last hour from one of the chief investigators on the Oxford vaccine describing their work over the last year (and the 20 years prior!) on how they developed the Oxford vaccine, where things are going and all the challenges they have faced (and continue to face)...fascinating stuff. Anyway, rather than give my opinion on it, his take was that if you asked him before they started what the best approach might be, he would have said what the Russians did (two different vectors). They didn't go down that route as it means two separate vaccines need to be manufactured (complicating the logistics further down the line) and when they looked at their pre-clinical data, the anti-vector vaccine response existed, but had little impact, so they stuck with two doses of the same vector (they also started out making a 1 dose vaccine, but put in lots of different combinations at the start and it became clear that 2 was going to be better). Anyway, in terms of the strength and durability of the immune response, his take was that boosting with a different vaccine should actually be the best strategy so that's why they are looking at combining with Pfizer and others to see how it works. They are also looking at how well a variant vaccine against Brazil/SA variants protects against the original strain and the UK variant and if the updated one gives just as good protection against all variants, then they'll probably just switch all production to the updated one. They expect to have the data to support that by May or June. Also expect to boost those most vulnerable with an updated one later in the year, but shouldn't be required for most people.

Cool thanks! considering how upset people were getting at a second dose being a different vaccine a few months ago, i found it interesting there was a scientific basis to it. 

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17 minutes ago, Mark E. Spliff said:

 

If anyone wasn't aware of the far-right rabbit-hole which Fuzzy Afro lives in, take a look at that Jordan Schachtel's twitter feed, including the comments from his Trump-loving, consipiracy-believing followers.  This is a regular occurrence with Fuzzy Afro - previous gems he's shared with us include far-right antifa-bashing, far-right climate-change deniers and basically anything which a red-capped angry American would be proud of.  He's got a right to post it, but we need to recognise it for what it is - the far right are adept at capitalising on people's frustrations, and they're doing pretty well with this 'zero covid' straw man they're building up in order to get us spitting at scientists and gravitating towards their MAGA, no-masks, stop the steal world.

 

Yeah, you're right. Zero-covid bashing is the domain of "far-right climate-change deniers" like Chris Whitty.

 

You can recognise that the far-right haven't had a great pandemic while also rejoicing in the fact that the scientific community at large don't support charlatans like Feigl-Ding. He'd fit in well on independent SAGE if he ever came to the UK.

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8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Cool thanks! considering how upset people were getting at a second dose being a different vaccine a few months ago, i found it interesting there was a scientific basis to it. 

It’s almost as if the scientists know what they’re actually doing isn’t it!

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22 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Interesting - that will probably affect vaccine uptake, so more need for the strict vaccine passports. Plenty are happy with AZ but want to avoid an mrna one, it sounds like there wont be a choice in the matter now 

Edit- I mean 2nd dose uptake

Though the question about supply is there - don't we have more AZ and quicker?

from the talk today, expecting about 3 billion doses of the Oxford vaccine globally by the end of 2021, but with a lot of that back loaded to H2 (for other parts of the world). SII are doing a 100m doses per month and expected to exceed that. To put it in perspective, the record for vaccine manufacture globally prior to this was 400m doses in a year, so not only has it been developed in record time, it is being churned out at a rate we simply have never seen. All of the manufactures are looking at a similar ramp up (sorry!) in the second half of 2021, so opportunities to boost with others will probably occur around about when they would be needed. The suggestion from the talk today though was that this would be primarily in highly vulnerable individuals and that most people won't need to be getting boosts (with the same vaccine or with a different one). 

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Too many anti-maskers are zero-covid'ers are too quick to paint anyone who doesn't agree with their opinion as being on the extreme other side. In fact the vast majority fit nicely into the centre of the covid spectrum. On a scale of New Zealand to Brazil, I'd present the covid spectrum roughly as follows:

 

Zero covid: Harsh lockdown until the virus is completely eliminated and then full reopening. No half-measures. Advantage that it minimises deaths and speeds up a return to full normality. Disadvantage is that the sort of part-normality we've been able to enjoy at times in the pandemic is missed out on, and at this stage fully eliminating the disease would take an incredibly long time if even possible.

 

Near elimination: Lockdown until cases are below 1000 a day, reopen but let Test & Trace do the heavy lifting. Advantage is a faster reopening than true Zero covid, disadvantage that it risks another outbreak if T&T fails (and this is basically what happened last summer)

 

True Covid centrists: Gradually release lockdown measures as the vaccines take over the heavy lifting and just live with it like flu. Aim to fully reopen roughly in line with when the whole adult population has been offered a first dose. This is the majority opinion and is roughly in line with the approach that the government have taken.

 

Soft lockdown supporters: Those who believe that lockdowns are necessary and acceptable to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed but that they are a disproportionate restriction on individual freedom now that the NHS is under less immediate threat of collapse and the most vulnerable groups have been offered a first dose and therefore the reopening should be sped up. This opinion is not the majority but it does enjoy a fair bit of support in the UK include by the CRG group of Conservative backbenchers. Like the previous group they aim to live with covid like the flu rather than trying to eliminate it, but they have a more optimistic view on when that de-risking can be achieved (or already has been)

 

True anti-lockdown'ers: Either believe that covid is a hoax, has been blown out of proportion, or some who do agree that not locking down would overwhelm the NHS but who ideologically believe in individual freedom above all else and think that scores of extra deaths in the vulnerable categories would have been a price worth paying to avoid what we've seen in the last year. Otherwise known as the Bolsonaro approach.

Edited by Fuzzy Afro
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10 minutes ago, Hannibal Schmitt said:

Never heard of that man here in Austria, but we have some right wing clowns ourselves who want to end all restrictions and open up everything now (you can recognise them as they don`t wear masks in the parlament and go with demonstrations against the government on the streets)

Feigl-Ding is a variant porn clown. He's the kind of guy that will use emotionally triggering phrases like "new normal" and scaremonger about hypothetical new variants and argue that even the very careful reopening plan laid out is too fast and too risky. They're not quite as damaging as the right wing clowns you mention, but it's a close run thing for sure.

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7 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Too many anti-maskers are zero-covid'ers are too quick to paint anyone who doesn't agree with their opinion as being on the extreme other side. In fact the vast majority fit nicely into the centre of the covid spectrum. On a scale of New Zealand to Brazil, I'd present the covid spectrum roughly as follows:n that de-risking can be achieved (or already has been)

...

True anti-lockdown'ers: Either believe that covid is a hoax, has been blown out of proportion, or some who do agree that not locking down would overwhelm the NHS but who ideologically believe in individual freedom above all else and think that scores of extra deaths in the vulnerable categories would have been a price worth paying to avoid what we've seen in the last year. Otherwise known as the Bolsonaro approach.

You're effectively claiming to favour a 'middle way' narrative here.  We both know that the cess-pool of social media you inhabit doesn't believe in this kind of sensible, risk-based, scientific approach to controlling the pandemic.  Your Jordan Schachtel clown beautifully demonstrates this, e.g. with his retweet from 5th March:

"A year ago the American people were utterly blindsided by unthinkable and unAmerican lockdowns. We had no idea why it was happening. Now with this new email dump, we know there was a small cabal of insane people consulting directly with Chinese communists to destroy liberty."

You're then trying to persuade us that the far-right's enemies like Faucci and Eric Feigl Ding are zero-covid lunatics.  That's a great straw man, until you actually look at what they're saying.  They're scientists using the evidence to balance risk.  Feigl Ding isn't opposing schools reopening, but pointing out that the evidence points to better ventilation being the main factor which can be improved to lower the risk.  But your far-right friends prefer to use the same insane rhetoric which you've been using on this forum as it's easy to whip up a bunch of frustrated people, who just want to see their families, into believing the pandemic is just a myth created by scientists/shady cabal/[insert right-wing conspiracy here]

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7 minutes ago, Mark E. Spliff said:

You're effectively claiming to favour a 'middle way' narrative here.  We both know that the cess-pool of social media you inhabit doesn't believe in this kind of sensible, risk-based, scientific approach to controlling the pandemic.  Your Jordan Schachtel clown beautifully demonstrates this, e.g. with his retweet from 5th March:

"A year ago the American people were utterly blindsided by unthinkable and unAmerican lockdowns. We had no idea why it was happening. Now with this new email dump, we know there was a small cabal of insane people consulting directly with Chinese communists to destroy liberty."

You're then trying to persuade us that the far-right's enemies like Faucci and Eric Feigl Ding are zero-covid lunatics.  That's a great straw man, until you actually look at what they're saying.  They're scientists using the evidence to balance risk.  Feigl Ding isn't opposing schools reopening, but pointing out that the evidence points to better ventilation being the main factor which can be improved to lower the risk.  But your far-right friends prefer to use the same insane rhetoric which you've been using on this forum as it's easy to whip up a bunch of frustrated people, who just want to see their families, into believing the pandemic is just a myth created by scientists/shady cabal/[insert right-wing conspiracy here]

 

I think putting Feigl-Ding and Fauci in the same sentence is a big mistake here.

 

Remember that Fauci is basically the American version of Chris Whitty. He has the ear of their government, has managed their response throughout and will come out of it looking pretty good. I've never once criticised him and you're putting words in my mouth claiming that I have.

 

My criticism is aimed solely at the hypocrisy of Feigl-Ding.

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32 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

from the talk today, expecting about 3 billion doses of the Oxford vaccine globally by the end of 2021, but with a lot of that back loaded to H2 (for other parts of the world). SII are doing a 100m doses per month and expected to exceed that. To put it in perspective, the record for vaccine manufacture globally prior to this was 400m doses in a year, so not only has it been developed in record time, it is being churned out at a rate we simply have never seen. All of the manufactures are looking at a similar ramp up (sorry!) in the second half of 2021, so opportunities to boost with others will probably occur around about when they would be needed. The suggestion from the talk today though was that this would be primarily in highly vulnerable individuals and that most people won't need to be getting boosts (with the same vaccine or with a different one). 

Amazing thanks! Are we definitely locked into two doses for everyone, and also them being 3 months apart?

I don't know if you saw the debate last week about the one dose/two dose thing for getting into festivals over this summer - what are your thoughts on that? I can envisage issues with the July/August ones if younger are waiting for their second doses but not sure if they're likely to relax the entry rules for that situation?

Edited by efcfanwirral
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13 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Feigl-Ding is a variant porn clown. He's the kind of guy that will use emotionally triggering phrases like "new normal" and scaremonger about hypothetical new variants and argue that even the very careful reopening plan laid out is too fast and too risky. They're not quite as damaging as the right wing clowns you mention, but it's a close run thing for sure.

so he`s is also like our health mininister who says at every press conference, and there have been quiet a few from last year on, that "situation is very worring (now because of the UK variant) and next weeks will be decisive" - it is like holding a carrot in front of the nose of the rabbit but pulling it away when the rabbit wants to get there and eat it - but now is the effect of all those dooming standard phrases he uses that people don`t take him serious (he is left wing) and right wing people get angry, very angry, so angry that they have their own conspiracy theories.

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13 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Amazing thanks! Are we definitely locked into two doses for everyone, and also them being 3 months apart?

I don't know if you saw the debate last week about the one dose/two dose thing for getting into festivals over this summer - what are your thoughts on that? I can envisage issues with the July/August ones if younger are waiting for their second doses but not sure if they're likely to relax the entry rules for that situation?

I think one dose for those that have tested positive previously and recovered is probably just fine. Janssen with be one dose (to being with at least) and will do most people just fine and, dare I say it, under 45s would probably do just fine with 1 dose. Vaccine strategies have changed as things progress, it's not impossible for them to change again (it might be better to use second doses for really low risk people to vaccinate high risk people in other countries for example)...I'm speculating, 2 doses firms up the response, so will probably be what we end up doing, but there are arguments to the contrary. 

Edit: sorry didn't comment on the 3 month gap...that's pretty much essential to get the best out of the OX/AZ jab. 3 weeks works fine for Pfizer and Moderna, so if you are looking to fully vaccinate some people quickly and you have the doses, then you'd use those with the shorter gap if you can. With fewer doses available, the balance is between full protection and a high level of protection from 1 dose, so the longer gap gets more people with some level of protection, but its not required for Pfizer or Moderna if the doses are there to be used.  

Edited by Toilet Duck
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5 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

 

I think putting Feigl-Ding and Fauci in the same sentence is a big mistake here.

 

Remember that Fauci is basically the American version of Chris Whitty. He has the ear of their government, has managed their response throughout and will come out of it looking pretty good. I've never once criticised him and you're putting words in my mouth claiming that I have.

 

My criticism is aimed solely at the hypocrisy of Feigl-Ding.

Then you ought to choose your social media a bit more wisely.  Schachtel has a long history of excoriating Faucci for being a traitor, e.g. within the past 24 hours he's tweeted his disappointment that he hasn't been jailed.

But you and Schachtel have more in common than just the fact that you both inhabit far-right social media.  You also like to post claims online without any sources.  You're clearly enraged about Feigl-Ding's hypocrisy in moving country, but are you sure it's true?  When Schachtel was questioned about where he's got his information from, this was his reply:

"Yes, this info is 100% confirmed. Not 99% sure. 100%. Publicly available open source info, which has been archived."

He might have saved himself a bit of typing by simply naming or linking to his information source.  Here's your challenge for today: go and locate this 'open source info' which Schachtel is relying on and report back to us.  (Unsubstantiated claims by other far-right bloggers don't count by the way.)

Finally - you are aware that citing 'hypocrisy' in an argument about a substantive/factual matter is called 'whatabouttery' aren't you?  It's like the in-breds you'll see shouting about how a climate change scientist once took a private jet or owns a gas-guzzler.  Whether or not they're hypocrites makes not one jot of difference to whether the scientific claim they're making is valid.  It just serves as as a convenient distraction from the actual evidence-based debate.

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6 minutes ago, northernringo said:

We now have a vaccination dashboard in NI:

image.thumb.png.7d5ce4ba4b0ad63919f18210056a6323.png

Hopefully not too long before we get some entries for 50+

Another likely reason for the bit of a slowdown we have seen with vaccinations is that the care homes are all getting their second doses now and this is logistically much slower than vaccinating at vaccine centres due to travel time between care homes, etc.

In NI, 13,836 care home residents have received a first dose. 11,882 of these have received a second dose. Similar split amongst care home staff so we should be pretty close to the end of care home vaccination in NI.

The dashboard if anyone wants to play around:

https://covid-19.hscni.net/ni-covid-19-vaccinations-dashboard/

Edited by northernringo
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