When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

Just now, st dan said:

Completely understand where you’re coming from, but isn’t the negativity being driven from the increase in daily figures, in particular positive cases rising rapidly?
If we didn’t have access to these figures isn’t there things to be more positive about i.e. social distancing measures in place compared to the Spring, new and effective ways of treating the virus, hopefully a virus not too far away etc. 

Not another one!?

 

Jokes aside the concern for me is heading into winter we are seeing case numbers as we are, restrictions already going in place. People can still be outside easily but that will stop when it gets cold so what will it be like then with transmission. We do have 2 effective treatments but that doesn’t stop some people having long lasting conditions too. 

[Copperface]

4 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

I’m actually shocked. From first glances around the web, neither of them seem to have connections to the Tories. This can’t be right. Our government giving a lucrative contract to someone other than their friends. 

Yeah, but there again it's more like the aviation industry trying to put something together to ease their predicament than the Tories bunging money at stuff as usual. Their motive is not altruistic, but entirely understandably, they are trying to introduce something to their decimated industry that might boost their numbers a bit.

If they can reduce quarantine requirements then they can try to resuscitate the business travel that is their baseline.

Edited October 1, 2020 by Copperface

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, st dan said:

hopefully a virus not too far away etc. 

 

[steviewevie]

Super Spreading.

 

[JoeyT]

3 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Yeah, but there again it's more like the aviation industry trying to put something together to ease their predicament than the Tories bunging money at stuff as usual. Their motive is not altruistic, but entirely understandably, they are trying to introduce something to their decimated industry that might boost their numbers a bit.

If they can reduce quarantine requirements then they can try to resuscitate the business travel that is their baseline.

I can't access the article because it's behind a paywall but how quickly do the tests turn around results?

Positive steps though and hopefully in due course the cost of the tests can come down.

[st dan]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Not another one!?

 

Jokes aside the concern for me is heading into winter we are seeing case numbers as we are, restrictions already going in place. People can still be outside easily but that will stop when it gets cold so what will it be like then with transmission. We do have 2 effective treatments but that doesn’t stop some people having long lasting conditions too. 

That’s fair enough, and I can understand that point of view as to why some may not be so positive. 

Im actually a pretty pessimistic person in general usually, but I’ve trained myself to start seeing the positive in things more where possible, and I’ve coped surprisingly through all of this as a result. My approach to it all now is that, yes it an undeniably shit situation we are all in - but this is a virus we were always susceptible to as a species, and hopefully we’re over the worst now and we are on the way to tackling this. 

[Copperface]

4 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I can't access the article because it's behind a paywall but how quickly do the tests turn around results?

Positive steps though and hopefully in due course the cost of the tests can come down.

There's no paywall....just click to register later.

It does say that the tests are scalable and price will come down with greater numbers.

One test then second test about 7 days later.......

(The model is expected to use the two-test approach for those arriving from high-risk countries. In a system that would effectively cut the current 14-day quarantine at least in half, passengers will take one test before departure, and another five or seven days after arrival.)

Edited October 1, 2020 by Copperface

[ace56blaa]

16 minutes ago, st dan said:

Completely understand where you’re coming from, but isn’t the negativity being driven from the increase in daily figures, in particular positive cases rising rapidly?
If we didn’t have access to these figures isn’t there things to be more positive about i.e. social distancing measures in place compared to the Spring, new and effective ways of treating the virus, hopefully a vaccine not too far away etc. 

Case numbers are still important, especially if they are rapidly increasing, (not saying they are rapidly increasing right now, but they are alarming) but i don't think anyone here is under the allusion that hey are the be all and end all. Yes hospitalizations and deaths are the most damning metric and they have remained quite low but are still rising as well. - The case numbers are good to keep under control because they lead to the other metrics increasing and also as people have mentioned countless times that more people potentially getting long covid symptoms, which is not great for overall public health. 

Edited October 1, 2020 by ace56blaa

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I can't access the article because it's behind a paywall but how quickly do the tests turn around results?

Positive steps though and hopefully in due course the cost of the tests can come down.

I can copy and paste it here if you want....?

[JoeyT]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I can copy and paste it here if you want....?

It's all good mate. Just realised it isn't behind a paywall!

@Toilet Duck has always said that rapid testing would be the way out of this without a vaccine so anytime a private company is getting involved it's definitely something to be excited about.

[Field Commander Jefferson]

45 minutes ago, st dan said:

I think the obsession with focussing on the daily number of positive cases is somewhat skewing the bigger picture with the whole situation. It’s data that we have never had such direct access to before with any virus, so taking the data and processing it how we see fit is new to us all - what some see as half empty, some see as half full.
But there is obviously no denying that this is a shit situation. 

This is obviously different to the flu, but if in 2019 we’d had a daily tracker of the number of cases, and we saw it double as we moved from August into October, then I’m sure some would have started reacting in a similar way to this. 
 

I agree that there is so much focus on the positive cases that other info is getting missed.

There's a couple of interesting charts around, this is the virus compared against flu rates at the moment.

I'm no expert so cant profess to have the answers but as you say perhaps the situation is not as bad as it is being made out to be and hopefully it stays that way.

[Waterdeep]

11 minutes ago, st dan said:

this is a virus we were always susceptible to as a species

It hasn't been definitively proven yet where it originated from, so there's a chance it was a lab leak of something that was being altered in a lab. Not a bioweapon before anyone says I'm suggesting that! The nearby lab investigates animal disease so there's always going to be a slight chance human negilgence came into play and something went wrong.

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, Field Commander Jefferson said:

I agree that there is so much focus on the positive cases that other info is getting missed.

There's a couple of interesting charts around, this is the virus compared against flu rates at the moment.

I'm no expert so cant profess to have the answers but as you say perhaps the situation is not as bad as it is being made out to be and hopefully it stays that way.

 

I’m sure the point is that we are basically on the brink of losing control to the point that we could have a second hump on that red curve. Probably won’t be as tall the first one. It could be, but probably won’t. But the blue curve is pretty steady across the year, but the red one has potential to spike again, which is why we are at the stage now where we need to be really careful to avoid that happening. 

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Field Commander Jefferson said:

I agree that there is so much focus on the positive cases that other info is getting missed.

There's a couple of interesting charts around, this is the virus compared against flu rates at the moment.

I'm no expert so cant profess to have the answers but as you say perhaps the situation is not as bad as it is being made out to be and hopefully it stays that way.

but isnt' problem with covid19 that it is more infectious than flu...and as we go into winter could get spike in both covid19 and flu cases. We might not of course, everything might be wonderful...but..that is what they're worried about.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Updated deaths by age banding and pre-existing health conditions. Note that this is England only and hospital deaths only. 

[Field Commander Jefferson]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

but isnt' problem with covid19 that it is more infectious than flu...and as we go into winter could get spike in both covid19 and flu cases. We might not of course, everything might be wonderful...but..that is what they're worried about.

Thats what I had thought although with all this focus on cases, what has been overlooked is the mortality rate has not gone up? (red on the chart below is mortality figures)

Why is this? more testing than before so higher figures or is it that those who were sadly affected in the first wave were the most vulnerable in society and a years worth of mortalities happened in a small period hence that first hump?

Edited October 1, 2020 by Field Commander Jefferson

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Field Commander Jefferson said:

Thats what I had thought although with all this focus on cases, what has been overlooked is the mortality rate has not gone up? (red on the chart below is mortality figures)

Why is this? more testing than before so higher figures or is it that those who were sadly affected in the first wave were the most vulnerable in society and a years worth of mortalities happened in a small period hence that first hump?

well...for a start we can't compare the case numbers with March/April because we're testing loads of people outside hospital now, whereas back then it was mostly only people going into hospital due to covid. But yes, at moment the numbers in hospital and dying are still low compared to spring, and will hopefully get no where near as bad as back in April...but this winter hospitals will possibly also be under pressure with flu patients, and this time they don't want to close off NHS to people with other problems...so they just want to keep it from getting out of control as much as poss.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Final guess for today 8871 

[Homer]

Ah, the holiday roller coaster continues! About an hour away from the quarantine list being updated/booking and it transpires Turkey has apparently been underreporting its numbers!

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, Homer said:

Ah, the holiday roller coaster continues! About an hour away from the quarantine list being updated/booking and it transpires Turkey has apparently been underreporting its numbers!

I’m not sure whether or not they’ve been cooking the books (where’s this being reported) but fwiw I think they usually base it on the official numbers to if there’s some funny business going on, the UK government are unlikely to reflect that. 

[Homer]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’m not sure whether or not they’ve been cooking the books (where’s this being reported) but fwiw I think they usually base it on the official numbers to if there’s some funny business going on, the UK government are unlikely to reflect that. 

Okay, ta for that!

[efcfanwirral]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54371943

On this standardised approach I expect everywhere to be level 2 by November, and most places level 3 by February as real winter kicks in...

So national lockdown without ever having to say and be that unpopular 

Edited October 1, 2020 by efcfanwirral

[JoeyT]

"World beating"

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

https://www.

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54371943

On this standardised approach I expect everywhere to be level 2 by November, and most places level 3 by February as real winter kicks in...

So national lockdown without ever having to say and be that unpopular 

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54371943

On this standardised approach I expect everywhere to be level 2 by November, and most places level 3 by February as real winter kicks in...

So national lockdown without ever having to say and be that unpopular 

 

If the threshold to move from tier 1 to tier 2 is 100 then it’s unlikely everywhere would be tier 2 by November. Only about 40 LA’s are above this threshold atm and they’re all in the North. 

[razorruck]

Glastonbury 2022 then. They'd have to get cracking on like now-ish should it happen right.  

In the meantime the closest thing I've had to a gig was the gypsy jazz band playing in the local park on the weekly, some poetry slam at the local, and a dude playing a ukulele.