When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

 

 

 

 

 

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

Wow. Awesome.

Coupled with the vaccine, in theory, deaths will plummet and should stay low.  We bloody hope! 😄

 

[Rumblestripe]

There was always going to be a "third wave" if it hits us in summer and after having achieved our vaccination target will (or should have) minimal effect on our hospitalisations (which is really what matters now).

The EU cannot affect our Oxford-AstraZenneca supplies as we make it here (with some coming from India). As said above they could limit our supplies of Pfizer vaccine but the Moderna Vaccine is coming online soon and that is made in Billingham on Teesside.

Most of the EU noise is (IMO) deflection, as in "we've f'ked up - but a big boy did it and ran away" sort of logic. 

I'm still hopeful for Bearded Theory in September though I note that they have stopped ticket sales at the moment.

Edited March 23, 2021 by Rumblestripe

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, Rumblestripe said:

There was always going to be a "third wave" if it hits us in summer and after having achieved our vaccination target will (or should have) minimal effect on our hospitalisations (which is really what matters now).

The EU cannot affect our Oxford-AstraZenneca supplies as we make it here (with some coming from India). As said above they could limit our supplies of Pfizer vaccine but the Moderna Vaccine is coming online soon and that is made in Billingham on Teesside.

Most of the EU noise if (IMO) deflection, as in "we've f'ked up - but a big boy did it and ran away" sort of logic. 

I'm still hopeful for Bearded Theory in September though I note that they have stopped ticket sales at the moment.

I struggle to see any wave in the summer. Everything points to it being seasonal like all other corona/flu viruses. We had no vaccine last year and we ended up with minus excess deaths and hardly any cases. 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

I struggle to see any wave in the summer

Jugoto the beach and look at the sea.

Edited March 23, 2021 by eFestivals

[MEGABOWL]

2 hours ago, Gregfc15 said:

Of course, and that’s been pointed out many times previously. Road Freight is the big difference, although Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore have managed to come up with ways to keep vital road links open while cases remained under control. Mentioning Australia and NZ border policy in the context of trade is disingenuous however as it has never been restricted, just non-essential travel.

The Road freight is always used as an excuse why, but there was never a serious attempt at mitigating the risk it posed. It’s always just been that, an excuse. Just as population density is used ignoring that Singapore, Tokyo, Seoul, Hanoi are also very dense. Now it’s an aging population, when there are examples of better outcomes for countries with older populations.

 

Freight generally is a huge difference between Australia and the U.K. Total imports to the U.K. are 2.85 times what Australia imports. Eurostar accounts for 22% of U.K. imports from the EU and 30% of exports. We saw it a lot during the Brexit debate where some don’t realise just how interconnected the U.K. is especially with Europe. ‘Just close the borders’ was never really an option.

Comparisons between countries are only worthwhile if inherent differences are taken into Account. The U.K. Government has done very badly but reality is the U.K. is very different to Australia/NZ/China/South Korea in terms of geography, demographics, climate, population density, politics etc. I’m not saying they did it well, but they had to form a strategy based on that reality.

[incident]

4 minutes ago, Rumblestripe said:

The EU cannot affect our Oxford-AstraZenneca supplies as we make it here (with some coming from India). As said above they could limit our supplies of Pfizer vaccine but the Moderna Vaccine is coming online soon and that is made in Billingham on Teesside.

Moderna is made in the EU (I think Spain but don't quote me on that), and so they can definitely affect it.

Novavax is made in Billingham - so while it'll definitely help it needs to be approved first.

[Rumblestripe]

1 minute ago, incident said:

Moderna is made in the EU (I think Spain but don't quote me on that), and so they can definitely affect it.

Novavax is made in Billingham - so while it'll definitely help it needs to be approved first.

Ah, I stand corrected, cap duly doffed!

[MEGABOWL]

8 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Saved my mums life.  She was close to going into ICU and they give her this as part of one of the trials.  The recovery was amazing.  

Brilliant. What a discovery.

 

My wife was oddly prescient on that one. She’s had two C-Sections where she was injected with a corticosteroid (because baby was early) to strengthen the baby’s lungs. Early on she was wondering if that was a possibility. Note she has no medical credentials whatsoever and was just thinking out loud, but she’s still claiming it 😀

[Hannibal Schmitt]

18 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Those countries are potential making mistakes by doing that but the EU itself has had the AZ vaccine fully approved through all of this. It’s sovereign nations that are making those calls. 

Yeah. This. But the impression like stated before here that EU-countries do not want to vaccinate, especially with the AZ, is simply wrong. Every country wants to vaccinate as fast and safe as possible.

There are 2 main issues: 1. the lack of vaccine 2. the difficulties in organization/roll out because of federalism/bureaucrasy in health systems.

[st dan]

Whether we see another ‘wave’ or not depends purely on how it is classified - whether that be positive cases, hospitalisations or deaths.
We might well see cases in excess of 20,000 a day later in the year once restrictions have been eased, but that really won’t be much of a concern once the vaccinations kick in.
I think it’s time we moved away from reporting the number of daily cases soon, it’s actually an irrelevant number for those outside of PHE.  

[zahidf]

Just now, Hannibal Schmitt said:

Yeah. This. But the impression like stated before here that EU-countries do not want to vaccinate, especially with the AZ, is simply wrong. Every country wants to vaccinate as fast and safe as possible.

There are 2 main issues: 1. the lack of vaccine 2. the difficulties in organization/roll out because of federalism/bureaucrasy in health systems.

There's definitely vaccine hesitancy in some places though ( Like France, Italy and Germany)

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Hannibal Schmitt said:

Yeah. This. But the impression like stated before here that EU-countries do not want to vaccinate, especially with the AZ, is simply wrong. Every country wants to vaccinate as fast and safe as possible.

There are 2 main issues: 1. the lack of vaccine 2. the difficulties in organization/roll out because of federalism/bureaucrasy in health systems.

Good to hear especially from someone in Europe, it’s also good to hear that the majority do want the vaccine and will take it. It’s just a larger amount in some countries that might be hesitant which mean it’s the bulk of people. 

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, Hannibal Schmitt said:

Yeah. This. But the impression like stated before here that EU-countries do not want to vaccinate, especially with the AZ, is simply wrong. Every country wants to vaccinate as fast and safe as possible.

There are 2 main issues: 1. the lack of vaccine 2. the difficulties in organization/roll out because of federalism/bureaucrasy in health systems.

yeah, but that doesn't fit with the EU fucked up and want to punish us for being awesome narrative.

[Hannibal Schmitt]

10 minutes ago, zahidf said:

There's definitely vaccine hesitancy in some places though ( Like France, Italy and Germany)

Can`t speak for France as with Macron they are certainly  a „special“ case.

But in Germany and Italy they see the need to get their vaccination campaign going fast.

Italy has said to vaccinate 500.000 a day from end of april and Germany 3.5 Mio per Week from end of april when there should be more vaccine available. This counts for Biotech, Modern, AZ and J+J. Maybe it`s like drowning you won`t think what life vest you will be using.

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, st dan said:

Whether we see another ‘wave’ or not depends purely on how it is classified - whether that be positive cases, hospitalisations or deaths.
We might well see cases in excess of 20,000 a day later in the year once restrictions have been eased, but that really won’t be much of a concern once the vaccinations kick in.
I think it’s time we moved away from reporting the number of daily cases soon, it’s actually an irrelevant number for those outside of PHE.  

I think they're expecting a rise in cases in late summer due to restrictions being eased. Eventually they will stop reporting cases, eventually they will stop reporting deaths too (unless gets bad again), but we're not there yet.

[Rumblestripe]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I think they're expecting a rise in cases in late summer due to restrictions being eased. Eventually they will stop reporting cases, eventually they will stop reporting deaths too (unless gets bad again), but we're not there yet.

The important number now is hospitalizations, as that comes down the pressure on the NHS eases and we get to accept COVID as a nuisance rather than a threat to civilization.

[steviewevie]

Just now, Rumblestripe said:

The important number now is hospitalizations, as that comes down the pressure on the NHS eases and we get to accept COVID as a nuisance rather than a threat to civilization.

yes, and I'm sure in the 2nd half of the year when have full confidence in the vaccines with variants and stuff, hospitalisations and deaths will be the focus, and they'll worry about cases less.

[stuartbert two hats]

9 minutes ago, Hannibal Schmitt said:

Can`t speak for France as with Macron they are certainly  a „special“ case.

But in Germany and Italy they see the need to get their vaccination campaign going fast.

Italy has said to vaccinate 500.000 a day from end of april and Germany 3.5 Mio per Week from end of april when there should be more vaccine available. This counts for Biotech, Modern, AZ and J+J. Maybe it`s like drowning you won`t think what life vest you will be using.

https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1374066278227341320?s=20

[steviewevie]

 

[Hannibal Schmitt]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1374066278227341320?s=20

Haha, yeah, but this one should be in french.

[Reckoner]

12 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

Freight generally is a huge difference between Australia and the U.K. Total imports to the U.K. are 2.85 times what Australia imports. Eurostar accounts for 22% of U.K. imports from the EU and 30% of exports. We saw it a lot during the Brexit debate where some don’t realise just how interconnected the U.K. is especially with Europe. ‘Just close the borders’ was never really an option.

Comparisons between countries are only worthwhile if inherent differences are taken into Account. The U.K. Government has done very badly but reality is the U.K. is very different to Australia/NZ/China/South Korea in terms of geography, demographics, climate, population density, politics etc. I’m not saying they did it well, but they had to form a strategy based on that reality.

I don't disagree which is why direct country to country comparisons can be problematic. Again though, closing borders was never about freight but limiting non essential travel. Freight will always need to continue. The causeway between Johor and Singapore is tremendously busy, Malaysia has had 330k cases, but mitigation has been put in place to ensure road freight can continue, Singapore can continue to import food and goods it needs, but cases aren't imported unchecked.

I agree there is no one size fits all approach, but it also doesn't excuse the strategy they went with which was essentially saying 'its all too hard" and failing to learn from others. 

[Guest]

It’s an interesting thought. 

[Hannibal Schmitt]

33 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Good to hear especially from someone in Europe, it’s also good to hear that the majority do want the vaccine and will take it. It’s just a larger amount in some countries that might be hesitant which mean it’s the bulk of people. 

Things can change quite rapidly. Last time in German Television it was said (after the pausing of the AZ) acceptance now is quite good. A scientist on TV also mentioned a main problem is that AZ was quite cheap and therefore a good deal for the EU and governments. And people not only have lost faith in the EU and their governments, they also want to have the more expensive ones as its the association expensive=brilliant/cheap=rubbish, but maybe the third wave will have a good effect that people will get more confidence in all the vaccines. 

[st dan]

A well put together summary marking one year on. It’s very damning when put together in a brief snapshot like this.