When will this shit end?

[eFestivals]

33 minutes ago, zahidf said:

If cases are low enough, doesn't need to to perfect. 

and in a vaccinated world they don't need to be perfect.

In fact, I've been mulling over the idea that their inability to detect low viral loads might actually be a good thing in that post-vaccinated world, as hopefully they'd pick up the most infectious.

[Paul ™]

1 minute ago, MrBarry465 said:

Now go and enjoy flying in and out of the country.

Not been on a flight for over a year now.

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

much the same as he said for ending lockdown one.

If we need another lockdown we'll be having another lockdown, no matter what Spaffer has said.

I’m really struggling to imagine in my head what circumstances could possibly mean we need another lockdown?

 

Lockdowns are used to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and that simply isn’t going to happen with every over 70 having been offered a vaccine (and the CEV).

 

A new variant that is completely resistant to the vaccine is the only scenario I can conjure, but that’s so incredibly unlikely. Even the worrisome SA variant, vaccines still protect against serious illness and death. 

[Chapple12345]

12 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

My wife is a LSA and says the kids need to be in. Some of them are so behind.

I'm a TA and have the exact same worries about so many of our children, the 2019 cohort have had just over a years education when they should be approaching 18 months so its absolutely essential they go back in, I agree we need to be put higher up the priority list and think maybe some kind of phases return may be needed but if they're absolutely sure this will be the last one then they will wait for R to lower further I think 

Edited February 16, 2021 by Chapple12345

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

and in a vaccinated world they don't need to be perfect.

In fact, I've been mulling over the idea that their inability to detect low viral loads might actually be a good thing in that post-vaccinated world, as hopefully they'd pick up the most infectious.

That’s the idea of an LFT isn’t it? You don’t care about people mingling in society with the virus so long as they aren’t actively spreading it.

 

PCR has its use when case loads are high, but the lower prevalence gets the more PCR tests are just picking up old bits of virus that aren’t an active danger (look at the difference between the ONS prevalence and the daily cases for example)

[st dan]

Imagine how much we’d all freak out every year if we had mass testing for the flu, or the common cold and all obsessed on the daily figures watching them go up and down.  
As long as hospitalisations and deaths are kept low (which the vaccines WILL do) then we need to accept the cases will rise and fall constantly. Schools must return ASAP, the furlough scheme has to end shortly too and we need to try a long term approach to living with this virus. 

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’m really struggling to imagine in my head what circumstances could possibly mean we need another lockdown?

 

Lockdowns are used to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and that simply isn’t going to happen with every over 70 having been offered a vaccine (and the CEV).

imagine that the vaccines don't pan out exactly how you're thinking, and there's still a winter surge next year.

Hopefully it won't happen, but until next winter we need to keep in mind that it might.

[zahidf]

 

"At the same time the Government intends to drops its slogan, 'Stay home, Protect the NHS, Save lives'."

[MrBarry465]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

imagine that the vaccines don't pan out exactly how you're thinking, and there's still a winter surge next year.

Hopefully it won't happen, but until next winter we need to keep in mind that it might.

Yeah I think this sums it up. Still a lot of unkowns around this virus and simply saying 'we will never need another lockdown' is way to early at this point.

[st dan]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

imagine that the vaccines don't pan out exactly how you're thinking, and there's still a winter surge next year.

Hopefully it won't happen, but until next winter we need to keep in mind that it might.

After the year we’ve had, I think we’d all be willing to accept a 2/3 week lockdown at times next winter if deemed necessary due to an increase in hospitalisations etc. 

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

'Stay home, Protect the NHS, Save lives'."

Go out, fuck the NHS, destroy lives 

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

imagine that the vaccines don't pan out exactly how you're thinking, and there's still a winter surge next year.

Hopefully it won't happen, but until next winter we need to keep in mind that it might.

Question would be an enforceable lockdown I guess. Or one the tory backbenchers would agree with. There is a certain number of deaths/overwhelming of the NHS which would be seen as ok

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, st dan said:

After the year we’ve had, I think we’d all be willing to accept a 2/3 week lockdown at times next winter if deemed necessary due to an increase in hospitalisations etc. 

Between Xmas and New years....

[Havors]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

That’s the idea of an LFT isn’t it? You don’t care about people mingling in society with the virus so long as they aren’t actively spreading it.

 

PCR has its use when case loads are high, but the lower prevalence gets the more PCR tests are just picking up old bits of virus that aren’t an active danger (look at the difference between the ONS prevalence and the daily cases for example)

Yep. PCR is great at what it does... but what it does is not so good as a public health tool. I read recently that from new study it was found any use of a threshold greater than 28.4 was pointless and viral loads detected over that threshold were not viable. i.e. not infections just remnants. 

When a LF test tests positive you can be very very confident the person is infectious. So regular testing a few days apart is enough to be almost certain you are not infectious. This eliminates the false negative issues that may occur. 

The few days between tests is still quicker, easier and cheaper than PCR test... hence the PCR test from a public health perspective is not very efficient. 

[MrBarry465]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

"At the same time the Government intends to drops its slogan, 'Stay home, Protect the NHS, Save lives'."

Have to love the Daily Mail, with a lot of this drivel. The PM stated quite categorically, nothing will be decided until the 22nd. This is because everyday the data and information changes, so why set themselves up for failure.

It's pure click bait mate. 

 

[Chapple12345]

I've been thinking also throughout this pandemic we've been praising the amazing work done by Doctors, Professors and scientists who have saved so many lives and created the vaccines to help us... if we endlessly keep the schools shut then we are preventing all the future generations from doing jobs like this and keeping us healthy and safe should anything like this ever happen again 

[st dan]

What are the plans for the lateral flow tests if you’ve recently tested positive?l though? Aren’t they inaccurate for up to 90 days, as they can still show a positive result?

My wife can’t use them anymore in her hospital since her positive test in January for this reason, so how will this work for mass events as 3 months is a long time after being symptomatic.

I’m not sure they’ve actually thought all of this through properly have they? Seems like the back of a cig packet job. 

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

imagine that the vaccines don't pan out exactly how you're thinking, and there's still a winter surge next year.

Hopefully it won't happen, but until next winter we need to keep in mind that it might.

I think even with a vaccine there is likely to be surge... it will be the season and the efficacy is not 100% and jury still out on how much it prevents transmission.  It is highly likely it will be another flu type virus that pops up every winter and it will kill people. A vaccine also may see the reemergence of the flu as its been non existent this past year. 

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

What are the plans for the lateral flow tests if you’ve recently tested positive?l though? Aren’t they inaccurate for up to 90 days, as they can still show a positive result?

My wife can’t use them anymore in her hospital since her positive test in January for this reason, so how will this work for mass events as 3 months is a long time after being symptomatic.

I’m not sure they’ve actually thought all of this through properly have they? Seems like the back of a cig packet job. 

Not sure where you are getting that nonsense information tbh. 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, MrBarry465 said:

Yeah I think this sums it up. Still a lot of unkowns around this virus and simply saying 'we will never need another lockdown' is way to early at this point.

and the best way to find out what's safe and what isn't post-vaccinations is to test various scenarios, which we absolutely need to do (for cautions sake) in the first instance in the best conditions of summer.

Wherever we've got to by the end of summer is likely to be a place we're stuck in until next summer, as the risks from trying things start to get much greater - and is the scenario where another lockdown might need to happen.

So nothing further will be opened up after the end of summer is my bet - but that also puts some weight towards the idea that they will try out all situations this summer to find out what is safe to do.

[JoeyT]

4 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Have to love the Daily Mail, with a lot of this drivel. The PM stated quite categorically, nothing will be decided until the 22nd. This is because everyday the data and information changes, so why set themselves up for failure.

It's pure click bait mate. 

 

Although it hasn't been written in blood you'd be a fool to think that the decisions haven't been pencilled in barring anything drastic happening between now and the weekend.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

and the best way to find out what's safe and what isn't post-vaccinations is to test various scenarios, which we absolutely need to do (for cautions sake) in the first instance in the best conditions of summer.

Wherever we've got to by the end of summer is likely to be a place we're stuck in until next summer, as the risks from trying things start to get much greater - and is the scenario where another lockdown might need to happen.

So nothing further will be opened up after the end of summer is my bet - but that also puts some weight towards the idea that they will try out all situations this summer to find out what is safe to do.

Only reason I potentially disagree is that by autumn all adults will be vaccinated. So I don't think they'll be adherence or political will for the same level of restrictions at the summer stage when not ALL people are vaccinated

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, Havors said:

I think even with a vaccine there is likely to be surge... it will be the season and the efficacy is not 100% and jury still out on how much it prevents transmission.  It is highly likely it will be another flu type virus that pops up every winter and it will kill people. A vaccine also may see the reemergence of the flu as its been non existent this past year. 

yeah, I think there'll be a surge of sorts too - but I also think some of it will be a replacement illness for winter 'flu, so it's impact compared to years past might not be significant.

[Toilet Duck]

40 minutes ago, Chef said:

Ah, dammit! I have had a berocca every morning for years.

Putting the point about fortified foods being the best way to absorb nutrients aside for a moment, if you were going to take supplements are some better than others? For example is their a difference between drinks (berocca)/ tablets/ those chewy sweet like things? What about Big Pharma vs. Own Brand?

I reckon they are all the same! There’s some things that have really been proven effective, especially while pregnant (or planning to be), for example folic acid. Iodine doesn’t get mentioned as much, but iodine deficiency is the number one preventable cause of mental retardation and could be solved by making all table salt iodised, but for some reason in Ireland/UK/EU you have to specifically buy iodised salt whereas in other parts of the world, salt just has a bit of sodium iodide in it no matter what. And we have much higher rates of thyroid problems too. Anyway, I don’t think there’s much difference between the various vitamin supplements, personally I like the chewy jellies my daughter has (but I still take berocca!). 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

Although it hasn't been written in blood you'd be a fool to think that the decisions haven't been pencilled in barring anything drastic happening between now and the weekend.

I think they’d probably have in place the plans for schools at this stage but for things such as socialising outside I could see that being a relatively last minute call, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.