Gnomicide Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 I was having this discussion with someone on Twitter and thought I'd throw it out to the eFests hive mind. GFL always trot out the number of registrations but as we all know, that's everyone who has registered since 2010 and they're not all trying. There are also people with multiple registrations. The 2.4 million figure quoted would mean about 1 in every 28 people on the UK trying. I think sometimes our perceptions can be thrown out because we all have friends who go but personally my close friends are the type of people who go to festivals, indeed I've met a fair few of them at festivals. However, when I look to my wider circle, none of my wife's close friends go. Apart from my eldest son, no-one in my family goes, I used to work in a company with hundreds of employees and I never met anyone who actually went. @Avalon_Fields's poll on here is showing 34% had no luck at all. The poll I ran on Twitter has the figure at 49% (15% more chance of failing if you're not on eFests!). So what do you reckon the true figure is? I think it's around 400k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuartasmith85 Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 I've found myself increasingly wondering about this. It would be interesting to know what the total number of active registrations would look like if you had to re-register every year (although I'm not saying that would be preferable, having had nightmare scenarios before where a group member hadn't checked their registration and found it had lapsed after the deadline!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old_Johno Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Hard to know, can’t even check something like unique visitors to seetickets owing to people using multiple networks and devices. I’d guess there’s about 1 ticket for every 4 people that want one, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H.M.V Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 When did they clean up the old registrations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareToDibble Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 (edited) I can't help but feel 400k a bit low. Of course I have no proof whatsoever that this is wrong. I'm using the logic that it seems like a lot less than 1 in 4 get tickets. I wouldn't be surprised if it was more along the lines of 750,000 Edited October 8, 2019 by DareToDibble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Jass Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 I suppose the other question is also how many devices/connections are being used? I used two laptops and an iPad on home WiFi, Mrs J was using her work laptop on a VPN and I had my phone on 4G. That's at least three separate connections, if 400,000 people are all using two/three each then you are going to get close to a million unique attempts to access the site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazyfool01 Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Had the same discussion today ... an uniformed 800,000 would be my guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pauladam Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Just now, DareToDibble said: I can't help but feel 400k feels a bit low. Of course I have no proof whatsoever that this is wrong. I'm using the logic that it seems like a lot less than 1 in 4 get tickets. I wouldn't be surprised if it was more along the lines of 1mil. 400k does seem low - but then add in the fact that most people are running multiple sessions - 400k could easy be doubled/trebled/quadroupled etc.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pauladam Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Hugh Jass said: I suppose the other question is also how many devices/connections are being used? I used two laptops and an iPad on home WiFi, Mrs J was using her work laptop on a VPN and I had my phone on 4G. That's at least three separate connections, if 400,000 people are all using two/three each then you are going to get close to a million unique attempts to access the site. what he said Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareToDibble Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, pauladam said: 400k does seem low - but then add in the fact that most people are running multiple sessions - 400k could easy be doubled/trebled/quadroupled etc.... Who do you think you are coming in here and speaking perfectly common sense? But yes that does sound right actually. I think I was sat here with 5 devices so if everyone else is doing that we're at 2mil attempts to access the site which would explain the issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt42 Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Between 1m-2m trying I reckon. I know peoples circles are different but as someone who has a lot of friends / connections with the music industry - or I am in circles that live and breathe music and events, it really does feel like bloody everyone is trying / wants to go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incident Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 The 2.4 million figure can be easily ignored as it'll include a lot of old and duplicate registrations. For example after a fuck up last year, I've been advising anyone who'll listen to create a new registration rather than amend their existing one. My guess is that the number this year would have been somewhere between 200,000 and 500,000, and that most other years it'll be maybe 10-20% less than that. But that's total guesswork based mostly on anecdotal information so I could be miles off in either direction. Truth is, it's impossible for us to know, and I don't see a way that even the festival/seetickets themselves can be confident to within about 20% - they might know that X amount of people are still left trying by the end of the sale, but they can't realistically know what that represents - if people are using multiple connections or if a group of 100 odd is just trying for their last 2 tickets for example then that'll artificially inflate the number. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernintendo Chalmers Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 (edited) I wouldn't be surprised if the number is around the 500,000 mark taking into consideration all those trying plus those giving it a go on behalf of others with no intention of attending (friends, family members, etc). To me that number seems more realistic than the misleading 2.4m figure that was published on Sunday. We'll never truly know. Edit: when I say 500,000, I mean that's the number of individuals trying, not the number of open browser sessions, devices, etc. Edited October 8, 2019 by Supernintendo Chalmers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pauladam Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Just now, DareToDibble said: Who do you think you are coming in here and speaking perfectly common sense? But yes that does sound right actually. I think I was sat here with 5 devices so if everyone else is doing that we're at 2mil attempts to access the site which would explain the issues. I (coughs) had a few more than that - (I work in IT and have access to a LOT of computers all with their own dedicated public IPs) and got nowhere I'm hoping for some of your luck last year @DareToDibble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RarerThanDandyB Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 But then you have to think about potentially quite a few people trying for a singular person or group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Jass Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Matt42 said: Between 1m-2m trying I reckon. I know peoples circles are different but as someone who has a lot of friends / connections with the music industry - or I am in circles that live and breathe music and events, it really does feel like bloody everyone is trying / wants to go. It was just one coder hacking the site... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareToDibble Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, pauladam said: I (coughs) had a few more than that - (I work in IT and have access to a LOT of computers all with their own dedicated public IPs) and got nowhere I'm hoping for some of your luck last year @DareToDibble Just shows how it's complete luck doesn't it. I know how you feel mate... even entering the competitions you feel like you have no chance but it obviously can happen! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amy Lawn Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 It can't be that oversubscribed, otherwise everybody on here who has been multiple times would be a statistical miracle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midlifecrisis Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Is also going to be interesting to see how they manage that ballot. There's no point in giving tickets to people who are registered but never want to go again! How would they know who was actually trying for tickets last weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said: It was just one coder hacking the site... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt42 Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 (edited) I really disagree that the number is below 700k. People all across the world are trying for tickets now. I reckon there’s over 500K people trying in the UK alone! Edited October 8, 2019 by Matt42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gnomicide Posted October 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, H.M.V said: When did they clean up the old registrations? October 2015. https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/2016-ticket-faq/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garrett_Salas Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 I'd say 500-700k people (complete guess). Looking round, and from my own experience, 1 in 4 chance (i.e. 1 group out of every 4 trying got them) seems reasonable. I'd say those roped in to try on others behalf are probably outweighed by people who get tickets without trying. Then maybe increasing the number as I'd say people on here/i know probably are biased towards better success rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxPower Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Just now, Gnomicide said: October 2015. https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/2016-ticket-faq/ Which I don't get. I registered in 2013 and didn't look at it or every try to get tickets until it was mentioned to me by a mate the day before general T day last year. Registration still active and had no issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuie Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, Matt42 said: I know peoples circles are different but as someone who has a lot of friends / connections with the music industry - or I am in circles that live and breathe music and events, it really does feel like bloody everyone is trying / wants to go. I know a lot of people who live and breathe music, events and festivals - promoters, party hosts etc. and a lot of them are no longer interested in Glastonbury, favouring smaller festivals. I mean, it's a really difficult thing to measure and if we base our guess on people we know we're going to come up with wildly different answers. Our glasto group and friends of friends we see every year got 6 coach and 11 general and 5 missed out. So, based on nothing/anecdotal evidence, I'd guess about 400K people wanted the 135K tickets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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