Weather 2016

[bigfurbdogg]

12 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

 

I'm keeping an eye on the high res webcam. There's a crossroads at the cider bus corner of the Pyramid field. Yesterday there was standing water. Today it's dry.

Loving the webcam link, cheers for that.

[WS_Jack_III]

2 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

At 3 minutes is the bit we need to see.

All the BBC indications seem to show that the high is sticking around over the south west!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/36534591

Stick!

[big__phil]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

You have to hit refresh manually, but it's always the latest image in the same URL.

Haha, sorry that's what I was really asking. I didn't know if the number in the URL related to a point in time or not.

[The Nal]

6 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

At 3 minutes is the bit we need to see.

All the BBC indications seem to show that the high is sticking around over the south west!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/36534591

"Further heavy downpours"! 

 

[SteveTLizard]

1 minute ago, The Nal said:

"Further heavy downpours"! 

 

Nothing will make me smile more today than seeing "New post from The Nal in Weather 2016" pop up in Chrome.

 

[Nobody Interesting]

3 minutes ago, The Nal said:

"Further heavy downpours"! 

 

Yep loads of them and all far further north than the festival. Great isn't it.

[fur_q]

small note of caution though, the 0z gfs (SLP) ensemble still showing quite a wide spread from 21st onwards, meaning confidence still not great, the operational run is (bar 1 other) the most optimistic and quite along way form the mean. 

 

[The Nal]

2 minutes ago, fur_q said:

small note of caution though, the 0z gfs (SLP) ensemble still showing quite a wide spread from 21st onwards, meaning confidence still not great, the operational run is (bar 1 other) the most optimistic and quite along way form the mean. 

 

What in the name of jumping Jebus does that mean?! Absolute gibberish. 

[elias]

It means the seaweed is hanging slightly more to the left than the right. I think this is a good thing.

[Mardy]

2 minutes ago, The Nal said:

What in the name of jumping Jebus does that mean?! Absolute gibberish. 

As far as I can work out,

Quote

the 0z gfs (SLP) ensemble still showing quite a wide spread from 21st onwards,

translates to

The Australian Glastonbury Festival Sevices (Shangri La & Park) are all over the bloody shop next week.

[big__phil]

2 minutes ago, elias said:

It means the seaweed is hanging slightly more to the left than the right. I think this is a good thing.

Who told you my girlfriends nickname for my genitals?

[The Nal]

Just now, Mardy said:

As far as I can work out,

translates to

The Australian Glastonbury Festival Sevices (Shangri La & Park) are all over the bloody shop next week.

Does a "wide spread" not relate to gambling? Is fur_q placing bets on the football maybe? 

Or is he watching too much online porn?

[SteveTLizard]

6 minutes ago, fur_q said:

small note of caution though, the 0z gfs (SLP) ensemble still showing quite a wide spread from 21st onwards, meaning confidence still not great, the operational run is (bar 1 other) the most optimistic and quite along way form the mean. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, The Nal said:

What in the name of jumping Jebus does that mean?! Absolute gibberish. 

 

I'm pretty sure it means Oz's girlfriend (Sarah somebody?), will be wearing a natty ensemble, possibly based on Kate Moss pictures posted in the Daily M**l.  Apparently still showing a wide spread so he's very optimistic that his luck'll be in over the Glastonbury weekend.

If it's not that then I've no idea.

[elias]

1 minute ago, big__phil said:

Who told you my girlfriends nickname for my genitals?

Your genitals are damp, green and smell faintly of fish? It's a wonder you've got a girlfriend! 

[devonhammer]

10 minutes ago, fur_q said:

small note of caution though, the 0z gfs (SLP) ensemble still showing quite a wide spread from 21st onwards, meaning confidence still not great, the operational run is (bar 1 other) the most optimistic and quite along way form the mean. 

 

I wouldn't say that the operational is the most optimistic. There's 20 runs plus the mean and the control. You just can't see the runs that are on zero precipitation. Even if we went with the mean, we're looking at showers, so nothing to get too worried about.

 

I'm certainly more optimistic today.

[big__phil]

2 minutes ago, elias said:

Your genitals are damp, green and smell faintly of fish? It's a wonder you've got a girlfriend! 

And salty - don't forget salty.

[fur_q]

4 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

I wouldn't say that the operational is the most optimistic. There's 20 runs plus the mean and the control. You just can't see the runs that are on zero precipitation. Even if we went with the mean, we're looking at showers, so nothing to get too worried about.

 

I'm certainly more optimistic today.

Sorry I was referring to the the sea level pressure charts

 

[fewcloudy]

4 hours ago, waterfalls212434 said:

Jeans would be mental to wear in any weather soak up mud/water like a sponge, v heavy, v hot on the ol sweaty bits and take up a lot of room in bag.

 I'mbringing shorts, t shirts, one hoodie for if it gets a bit chilly in the evenings and a set of waterproof trousers/coat for if the worst happens (handy that my old man's a keen fisherman and lends me his decent all weather gear) ...also walking boots have got me by fine even in 2014 when it was quite muddy at times....comfier, better ankle support and less likly to be sucked off in the mud.

I'm wondering what one should wear to make it more likely to be sucked off in the mud?

fc

[devonhammer]

4 minutes ago, fur_q said:

Sorry I was referring to the the sea level pressure charts

I'd still take an SLP of 1015 mb. It's not perfect, but it's not that bad either.

[waterfalls212434]

if people would stop posting shit that you need to be a meteorological scientist to work out and just tell us if its going to ` rain biblical` `spit a bit` or be `dry as the sahara` id be very grateful...

[waterfalls212434]

2 minutes ago, fewcloudy said:

I'm wondering what one should wear to make it more likely to be sucked off in the mud?

fc

if thats your fetish pal you indulge.......may I suggest Phillipas van though for a bit more privacy?

[CaledonianGonzo]

1 minute ago, waterfalls212434 said:

if people would stop posting sht that you need to be a meteorological scientist to work out and just tell us if its going to ` rain biblical` `spit a bit` or be `dry as the sahara` id be very grateful...

And maybe if you read what they're posting you might learn something.

[devonhammer]

Just now, waterfalls212434 said:

if people would stop posting shit that you need to be a meteorological scientist to work out and just tell us if its going to ` rain biblical` `spit a bit` or be `dry as the sahara` id be very grateful...

To help anyone who's unsure about ensembles, you can read this fascinating article. With regards to the Control run "The control member uses these initial conditions directly, while the perturbed members use an initial condition which has been obtained using an Ensemble Transform Bred Vector (ETBV) method that is designed to pick out the fastest growing modes in the model (with the hope that these simulate the fastest growing sources of uncertainty in the atmosphere). These perturbations are also subjected to stochastic physics perturbations."

Simples

To answer the question: Spit a bit (bit of a guess this far out though)

[waterfalls212434]

5 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

And maybe if you read what they're posting you might learn something.

it was a joke........all forecasting at this stage may as well be psychic readings anyway so who cares how its presented. Ill give a lot more respect to any forecast I see from sunday onwards. long range weather forecasting even meteorological scientists will admit is more guesswork then anything. Unless somebody comes up with a way to predict mother nature......

Edited June 15, 2016 by waterfalls212434

[billum]

A perturbed member? Stimulated fast growing mode? Getting sucked off in the mud? In an ensemble? This weather forecasting sounds like much more fun than I ever realised, no wonder they smile so much during the forecasts on TV