Weather

[Mr Ploppy]

Happy now?

LMAO!

Genius!

[Ted Dansons Wig]

Not to do with the weather as such, but I've just noticed that Metcheck now has three of the five days of the festival listed under "this week", rather than "next week"!

EEK!

Metcheck has 6.8mm of rain in total between Wednesday and Sunday. Given we had (Im sure I read on here) 10mm Thursday afternoon last year - its not worth putting a coat on for never mind wellies.

[tumbles]

Hahaha. I remember last year getting worked up when on site with the BBC forecast of Pilton.. only on the Saturday did I realise I was viewing Pilton in Northamptonshire.

[sinhala]

YR.NO was updated at 8am today (Fri 20th) and the forecast for Shepton Mallet is :-

Wed - Cloudy / 18c / 0mm Prec
Thu - Cloudy / 18c / 0mm Prec
Fri - Sun & Showers / 20c / 3.2mm Prec
Sat - Showers / 19c / 0.7mm Prec
Sun - Sunny Spells / 19c / 0mm Prec

Next update is at 5pm

[stuartbert two hats]

Metcheck has 6.8mm of rain in total between Wednesday and Sunday. Given we had (Im sure I read on here) 10mm Thursday afternoon last year - its not worth putting a coat on for never mind wellies.

I was only eeking because it's nearly time for the festival, nothing to do with rain

[Ted Dansons Wig]

I was only eeking because it's nearly time for the festival, nothing to do with rain

Well be more careful with your eeking in future Stuart

[tumbles]

Metcheck has 6.8mm of rain in total between Wednesday and Sunday. Given we had (Im sure I read on here) 10mm Thursday afternoon last year - its not worth putting a coat on for never mind wellies.

I reckon it was 2-3 times more than that on Thurs.. it rained solidly for 6 odd hours. If it was only 10mm then less than that over the whole festival isn't even going to get the ground moist.

[stuartbert two hats]

Well be more careful with your eeking in future Stuart

Well, excuuuuse me, I thought"Not to do with the weather as such" and no mention of rain would have been enough. Obviously not

[fur_q]

Yep, as FloorFiller says it is the BBC forecast showing each day as being sunny with showers.

Is the BBC 5-10 day forecast generally considered inaccurate? I find that their short term forecasts are normally spot on where I live.

Only to those partaking in a bit of anecdotal conformation bias.

[Messy]

I remember being thoroughly miserable because I found myself underdressed and covered in mud in the Thursday rain last year. In my mind's eye it feels like it absolutely pissed it down, but it probably didn't really.

[Mr.Tease]

Metcheck has 6.8mm of rain in total between Wednesday and Sunday. Given we had (Im sure I read on here) 10mm Thursday afternoon last year - its not worth putting a coat on for never mind wellies.

The problem is is that only about 6mm of rain was predicted for that Thursday the day before- I remember JackONE saying we got unlucky and ended up with more rain than he had anticipated.

[Gnomicide]

If only there were some sort of expert we could call on.

Someone who has his nose to the ground.

Someone with unrivalled local knowledge.

Someone with a track record of excellence in weather reporting.

Pass me my phone.....

[Porcelina]

I remember being thoroughly miserable because I found myself underdressed and covered in mud in the Thursday rain last year. In my mind's eye it feels like it absolutely pissed it down, but it probably didn't really.

To be fair it was reasonably solid rain, not exactly 'bouncing down' but I did groan quite loudly and dive into the tent for a bit for a nap.

Then got the waterproofs out and went to see Dry the River and had an ace evening.

[Mr Ploppy]

To be fair it was reasonably solid rain, not exactly 'bouncing down' but I did groan quite loudly and dive into the tent for a bit for a nap.

Then got the waterproofs out and went to see Dry the River and had an ace evening.

I have to agree. I;ve got video of my soaked at our campsite and that rain really did come down a fair bit last year.

And just as a side note: Dry The River were my fave thing at Glasto last year!

[pedmills]

Slighty worse than yesterday, but overall still very good.

If last year was 10mm then 8 out of 9 sites are forecasting 2014 to be better than 2013. If last year was 20 or 30mm then every site is forecasting better than 2013.

[JoeyT]

latest GFS chart shows very light rain on Wednesday but dry other than this.

[theDandy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2648559

http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day/Glastonbury+SOM+United+Kingdom+UKXX1641:1:UK

both of these are predicting that there will be rain next weekend

[Gnomicide]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2648559

http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day/Glastonbury+SOM+United+Kingdom+UKXX1641:1:UK

both of these are predicting that there will be rain next weekend

The BBC one has already been pulled apart earlier in the thread. I think the thing with these are that at this stage you are getting one symbol for the whole day.

When it gets closer they break it down hourly. It could be that the rain is in one hour spell in the middle of the night. I'm sticking with yr.no

[The Nal]

both of these are predicting that there will be rain next weekend

Thats because theres going to be rain. Lots of rain. We can dress it up anyway we want (oh but its only xx mm) but rain every day = mud. We all know it.

[sparkythetortoise]

From the bbc's site:

What is an ensemble forecast?

A forecast is an estimate of the future state of the atmosphere. It is created by estimating the current state of the atmosphere using observations, and then calculating how this state will evolve in time using a numerical weather prediction computer model. As the atmosphere is a chaotic system, very small errors in its initial state can lead to large errors in the forecast.

This means that we can never create a perfect forecast system because we can never observe every detail of the atmosphere's initial state. Tiny errors in the initial state will be amplified, so there is always a limit to how far ahead we can predict any detail.

So long range forecasting is based not on anything specifically measurable, so much as on computer models of what tends to happen after what we are currently experiencing. Not only might the current observation be imperfect, but so might the modelling system.

Perhaps then the only real issue is the prevalent weather conditions, which are okish.

2007, as I recall, was unsettled and cold leading up to the festival, which meant the best we were ever going to get was a window of fair weather (with we didn't). This time, it may rain a bit, or even a bit more than a bit, but the prevailing conditions are warm, and the ground will more easily drain. There's really no comparison.

Frankly, I can't see what can possibly go wrong.

[GlastoSimon]

Frankly, I can't see what can possibly go wrong.

[stuartbert two hats]

So long range forecasting is based not on anything specifically measurable, so much as on computer models of what tends to happen after what we are currently experiencing. Not only might the current observation be imperfect, but so might the modelling system.

Perhaps then the only real issue is the prevalent weather conditions, which are okish.

2007, as I recall, was unsettled and cold leading up to the festival, which meant the best we were ever going to get was a window of fair weather (with we didn't). This time, it may rain a bit, or even a bit more than a bit, but the prevailing conditions are warm, and the ground will more easily drain. There's really no comparison.

Frankly, I can't see what can possibly go wrong.

That's more terrifying than any of Nal's troll posts!

[pentura]

We need one of these for next week going by what the BBC weather says..

Edited June 20, 2014 by pentura

[Moon Monkey]

Slighty worse than yesterday, but overall still very good.

If last year was 10mm then 8 out of 9 sites are forecasting 2014 to be better than 2013. If last year was 20 or 30mm then every site is forecasting better than 2013.

Is the difference not being that last year the rain was all in one go, giving time for the ground to recover. If it's prolonged and even less then I see mud. It doesn't take much for the ground to recover, but also not much to keep it as mud with plenty of traffic

[Bradders]

I have very little recollection of it raining last year. That's probably more down to my state than how much or little rain though was though as I think I might have fallen in the mud at West Holts.

The point is: this much rain doesn't really matter.

Edit: as long as you're fucked.

Edited June 20, 2014 by Bradders