Weather

[Glastonlocal]

Brazen talk from Carole on BBC breakfast. Supercomputer means weather forecasts are as accurate for 4 days as they were for 1 day 30 years ago.

We just need a supermegacomputer.

[Glastonlocal]

Talk of 80% long range accuracy here..http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/10738343/Forecasters-find-new-formula-for-long-range-weather.html

[Pinhead]

It will take a while to incorporate that new formula within the current modelling software however, so for this year at least we have the existing one that will give up anything up to around 36-48 hours of accuracy, though less so when localised weather generation parameters are in play as they are more so during the summer months.

The Sunday Countryfile following week forecast (really the last hangover from the old "Farming Weekly" forecast that preceded it), is usually a reasonably accurate picture I always find.

[bsolxiv]

Talk of 80% long range accuracy here..http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/10738343/Forecasters-find-new-formula-for-long-range-weather.html

I'm struggling to find any facts in that article

[majormajormajor]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/

hmmmm!

[stuartbert two hats]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/

hmmmm!

I've been taking the stupid pills. What's he on about? What are days 6-10, or 8-14? Is that days from now?

Edited June 4, 2014 by stuartbert two hats

[nickharley]

I've been taking the stupid pills. What's he on about. What are days 6-10, or 8-14? Is that days from now?

I'm guessing so.

Edit: although having read it I have no idea what it means for us.

Edited June 4, 2014 by nickharley

[**claire**]

Is the trough good or bad?!

[geoffboycott]

Hope it's not like it is right now in 3 weeks time, down here in Zummerzet, feels and looks like November. But it won't be of course.

[Pinhead]

Depends - an area of stability but one that can either exhibit clear weather or harbour a weather front.

[Pinhead]

Hope it's not like it is right now in 3 weeks time, down here in Zummerzet, feels and looks like November. But it won't be of course.

The trend is towards a cooler summer with below average temps.

I see WoW is now hanging out on Netweather...

[frostypaw]

Depends on where it is. That's good news pretty much - there's been a run of predictions of increasing pressure and good weather into next week

The dream scenario has to be for such a feature to get stuck for a few weeks

[kalifire]

Hope it's not like it is right now in 3 weeks time, down here in Zummerzet, feels and looks like November. But it won't be of course.

Yep, it's pretty miserable in Somerset this morning - grey, persistent light rain and chilly.

In many ways, this is perfect. It's exactly what's needed to soften the ground before the heatwave. I'm fighting the sense that it's a little too close to the 25th for comfort...

[**claire**]

Ok - so in summary I am staying positive for now! Thanks everyone.

[nickharley]

I always find myself in a situation where if it was sunny around this time before the festival, I'd be worrying that "it'll never last!" but when it's like this (wet and miserable) I can't help but worry that it's here to stay. Oh dear.

[JoeyT]

Late next week in to the weekend is looking like it could be a heatwave of some sort. Needs to be treated with a degree of caution though as it's still far enough away to have a low level of confidence.

Hopefully it'll stick around for a couple of weeks

[Dog Burger]

Yep, May and early June in Bristol and Bath have been a bag of bollocks, bar the first Bank Holiday weekend.

The water table must be pretty damn high and the ground well saturated after the amount of rain we've had this spring, following the floods in Somerset.

Let's hope things start drying up in the coming weeks.

[LaxtonsSuperb]

It's grim 'oop north I tell thee.....

Anyhoo, there was much more than the average rainfall in May, it's been a miserable week weather wise, unsettled conditions set to continue for a couple of weeks - so I'm positive based on the cast-iron science of the law of averages

Surely if it just rains loads and is miserable for the thick end of a month then a decent spell is due - it's like flipping a coin, if you get five tails in a row then surely a heads must be imminent

...or something

[siblin]

It's grim 'oop north I tell thee.....

Anyhoo, there was much more than the average rainfall in May, it's been a miserable week weather wise, unsettled conditions set to continue for a couple of weeks - so I'm positive based on the cast-iron science of the law of averages

Surely if it just rains loads and is miserable for the thick end of a month then a decent spell is due - it's like flipping a coin, if you get five tails in a row then surely a heads must be imminent

...or something

Hehe luckily I think the negative feedback in weather models etc makes it far more likely that if it rains for 3 weeks we'll have non-stop sunshine with far more statistical meaning than flipping a coin 5 times etc.

(by the way, casino owners love the fact that we think if a ball has landed on red on a roulette table 5 times in a row the next one will be black. Lots of people lose their money that way!)

Edited June 4, 2014 by siblin

[geoffboycott]

Yep, it's pretty miserable in Somerset this morning - grey, persistent light rain and chilly.

In many ways, this is perfect. It's exactly what's needed to soften the ground before the heatwave. I'm fighting the sense that it's a little too close to the 25th for comfort...

Heh heh, indeed

Yep, May and early June in Bristol and Bath have been a bag of bollocks, bar the first Bank Holiday weekend.

The water table must be pretty damn high and the ground well saturated after the amount of rain we've had this spring, following the floods in Somerset.

Let's hope things start drying up in the coming weeks.

Yeah, agree, the table is high, just the rain overnight which wasn't a great deal has cause localised flooding on the back lanes to work this morning.

[LaxtonsSuperb]

Hehe luckily I think the negative feedback in weather models etc makes it far more likely that if it rains for 3 weeks we'll have non-stop sunshine with far more statistical meaning than flipping a coin 5 times etc.

(by the way, casino owners love the fact that we think if a ball has landed on red on a roulette table 5 times in a row the next one will be black. Lots of people lose their money that way!)

Ok Robert De Niro, let me ask you this? What if I put my money on BOTH red and black? Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah, didn't think of THAT did you? Bound to win every single time.

....what do you mean there's a 'green'?

[5co77ie]

those big thunderstorms on the long range better start moving away from Glastonbury weekend and not towards it!

Edited June 4, 2014 by 5co77ie

[nickharley]

Hehe luckily I think the negative feedback in weather models etc makes it far more likely that if it rains for 3 weeks we'll have non-stop sunshine with far more statistical meaning than flipping a coin 5 times etc.

I hope I'm not being stupid here but what do you mean by negative feedback?

[math125]

I hope I'm not being stupid here but what do you mean by negative feedback?

In a controlled system a negative feedback mechanism returns the system to an ideal value i.e. if we set a thermostat at 20 then the heating will come on / off to keep it around that value.

In weather models it must mean lots of rain followed by lots of sun to balance it out

[Lostchimp]

so from my investigations were looking at a possible mud bath huh?

Anyone else got any better offers?

http://www.festiweather.com/forecast.asp?EventID=667&Event=Glastonbury%20Festival%202014