Weather

[Dog Burger]

Just spent my lunch break in a pub garden in Bath watching it c**t it down for an hour. Come on weather, sort it out!

[Lostchimp]

not looking promising is it? we need a massive change to happen otherwise its gonna be a mud bath, AGAIN!

[nickharley]

This thread is a sure way to get bummed out. haha

[jeffie]

It's your own faults.....

NFR NFC

[Dog Burger]

not looking promising is it? we need a massive change to happen otherwise its gonna be a mud bath, AGAIN!

In fairness, and the media don't report it as such, we've had a pretty good run the last few years. Last year was good, other than the day of rain (Thursday?); 2011 was a bit of a shocker; but 2010 was blazing hot and dry as a bone. The last horror show was 2007 - perpetual rain and low temperatures.

[nickharley]

can this thread not turn into the pessimism thread aha, please.

[Midnight Man]

It's still way too early for pessimism. I live about 20 miles away and the field where I walk MY dogs is sucking it up and drying out nicely between downpours. A bit like last year (though '13 was certainly drier and colder in the lead up). 2011 was much worse than this - the ground was more sodden by now.

It could still go either way but, for what they're worth, the long range forecasts are promising a bit of warmth and dryness for the middle of June so....

[nickharley]

It's still way too early for pessimism. I live about 20 miles away and the field where I walk MY dogs is sucking it up and drying out nicely between downpours. A bit like last year (though '13 was certainly drier and colder in the lead up). 2011 was much worse than this - the ground was more sodden by now.

It could still go either way but, for what they're worth, the long range forecasts are promising a bit of warmth and dryness for the middle of June so....

phew, the balance is restored.

[Lostchimp]

yeh last year was ace! here's hoping for a repeat!

[A13]

Gonna piss it down m8

[nickharley]

Gonna piss it down m8

[siblin]

In a controlled system a negative feedback mechanism returns the system to an ideal value i.e. if we set a thermostat at 20 then the heating will come on / off to keep it around that value.

In weather models it must mean lots of rain followed by lots of sun to balance it out

^

What he said.

This is my really crude understanding. In weather most systems are mostly controlled by negative feedback. One really poor example is if the sun evaporates water, you get clouds which are white which reflect the sun which stop the sun evaporating more water. Another one might be if you have a really low pressure system its basically inviting high pressure to take over (causing a period of very unsettled weather followed by some sun)

Negative feedback systems mean we don't turn into permafrost or a fireball. There are a few examples of positive feedback systems, such as the solar albedo of the artic circle. Hot sun melts the white ice which turns into darker ocean which absorbs more of the suns heat, which is why people are very worried about polar ice retreat.

[Mr.Tease]

Fear not, I was watching that Cosmos documentary and scientist extraordinaire Neil deGrasse Tyson said that even 10 day weather forecasts are useless because of the chaotic nature of atmospheric conditions- he said even the slightest micro change from moment to moment has a butterfly effect that completely changes everything.

[adeadenemy]

I was speaking to a mate who's a geographer (human geographer but whatever), and he said it's pretty much useless trying to predict anything until 2 weeks before at the very earliest and then its still changing day by day.

That said, a few forecasts are predicting that we're heading for the mid twenties by the end of next week so its not all doom and gloom

Edited June 4, 2014 by adeadenemy

[kalifire]

The sun is out in Somerset!

[Dog Burger]

The sun is out in Somerset!

It came out for half an hour in Bath too....

Now it's hammering it down again.

Edited June 4, 2014 by Dog Burger

[geoffboycott]

The sun is out in Somerset!

I can confirm this But like someone else said above, it 'didn't half c*** it down' earlier, lol

It'll be all fine come the week, besides it's only a bit of mud innit.

[Ted Dansons Wig]

It keep out for half an hour in Bath too....

Now it's hammering it down again.

Sun out in Corsham Burger at 3:34. Coming your way...

[JayBalls]

It'll be all fine come the week, besides it's only a bit of mud innit.

Loving the optimism

[stuartbert two hats]

Im just laughing at this link someone sent me earlier, the express is a shit right wing peice of crap anyway but the tone of this article is hilerious.....why dont they just tell us all the repent the end is nigh why they are at it? http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/480038/Shock-UK-weather-warning-Tornadoes-hail-thunderstorms-and-lightning-to-ravage-Britain

The Mail gets all the hatred, but The Express is a poor man's Daily Mail. That's a very low standard!

[Glastonlocal]

Its going to be 32.6 degrees and hailing cricket balls. Wtf!?

[math125]

The Mail gets all the hatred, but The Express is a poor man's Daily Mail. That's a very low standard!

This prompted me to check the Met Office website. They have issued a UK wide yellow warning for rain. It's the lowest grade that means be aware. Forecast where I live says to expect a few light showers throughout the day.

[DeanoL]

I'm not sure 2005 or 2007 had a mudbath predicted even on the week of the festival. And it if I remember 2010 was meant to be unsettled?

[adeadenemy]

The Mail gets all the hatred, but The Express is a poor man's Daily Mail. That's a very low standard!

The Express is a work of fiction bordering satire though. At least some of the things reported in the Daily Mail are in someway in touch with a really hateful view on reality.

[stuartbert two hats]

I'm not sure 2005 or 2007 had a mudbath predicted even on the week of the festival. And it if I remember 2010 was meant to be unsettled?

2005 was a total surprise. 2007 was most definitely predicted.