The Weather Thread 2024

[TheDayman]

30 minutes ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

One of my worst thyroid symptoms is feeling the cold...so this will be me this year...

 

 

 

Proper sports thermal layers, both body and legs, will help

 

(And when say proper, I mean brands like Under Armour & Canterbury and not Primark)

 

[TheDayman]

16 is perfect for me, that's a good summer in Ireland.

[rlandy95]

Another bit of analysis of the latest 12Z temperatures. 

 

Wednesday - Op run we can say is an outlier at 15.9º, average across all runs is 21º

 

Thursday - Op isn't a complete outlier, but still round the bottom of the pack at 17.1º, average is 19º

 

Friday - Just one run below the Op so outlier teritory here again at 13.5º at 13:00 (!!!!) before getting up to a lovely 15.6º at 19:00. Average is 17.6 across all runs. 

 

Saturday - Once again lower down in the pack, op is at 15.8º and average is at 17.6º 

 

Sunday - And once again, only two other runs lower than the Op which is at 14.2º at 13:00. Average is 18.9º

 

To sum up, the spread on this chart is pretty wild. Even for the 23rd theres uncertainty and thats three days away... The op is right at the bottom pretty consistently across the entire festival, not to say its gauranteed to be wrong but its showing us there absolutely time and opportunity for it to get higher. Many of the other runs coming in at the low to mid 20s. 

 

Still up in the air, still anything up for grabs and still a sh*t tonne of uncertainty imo. 

 

Data here.

 

[Dreamingofsunnydays]

1 hour ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

I'll be wearing 3

For the first time in 3 years I’ve crumbled due to this thread and bought this:

 

https://www.very.co.uk/the-north-face-mens-aconcagua-3-vest-black/1600959220.prd?cm_mmc=google-_-PLA+-+Generic-_--_-__&utm_campaign=Generic_Fashion+Clothing+%26+Footwear+-+Mens+-+PMAX+-+All&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_term=&campaigntype=shopping&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAAD2k1i1oHO9idIBoUAPk4WEyHVoLG&gclid=CjwKCAjwps-zBhAiEiwALwsVYWpoZR4wDd4VcVPVeeGFwnxANS4Ookd10sdAQig4ESDOovV57ZzwERoCcogQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds#sku=sku27284139

 

This is karma for fuzzy Dunlop 

[Nutella Versace]

Gavin, you need to try harder mate, or you’ll end up back in hospital with the other ankle! (I jest of course) 

[kalifire]

1 hour ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

I will take cold and dry over warm and wet, but this would limit the opportunities for going taps aff.

The rest of us will be thankful 😉

[gherkin8r]

Is the operational run what we are looking at when briddj posts his screens? 

 

Is that essentially just one randomly selected run from a number of runs at each time?

[tarw]

2 minutes ago, gherkin8r said:

Is the operational run what we are looking at when briddj posts his screens? 

 

Is that essentially just one randomly selected run from a number of runs at each time?

I think that the operational run is at a higher resolution. The others are lower resolution but will show how reliable the operational run was. 

[rlandy95]

2 minutes ago, gherkin8r said:

Is the operational run what we are looking at when briddj posts his screens? 

 

Is that essentially just one randomly selected run from a number of runs at each time?

 

Correct, the op run is what we're seeing on the charts. But as Tarw says, I'm pretty certain they're run at slightly higher resolution.

 

Ensembles are basically where instead of a model running once and producing a single forecast, multiple instances of the model are run concurrently with slightly differing initial conditions and thus an ensemble of forecasts is produced. It simply helps account for uncertainty introduced in the model initialization, and gives a spread of possible scenarios instead of a single prediction you’re hoping is correct. 

 

I feel they help to provide some context. This guy from Netweather forums sums up my thoughts above better! 

 

[Sheffield Steve]

Much better 12z from the ECM. No pesky area of low pressure hanging around. 
 

Some showers come in for those queuing overnight…

 

 

but then Wednesday afternoon, Thursday and Friday end up dry with just the chance of a light shower…

 

a weakening front moves through during the day on Saturday giving some light rain or showers…

 

And then the low pressure edges closer for Sunday with a trough moving through giving some potentially heavy showers. 

 

 

But just like the GFS, every run produces twists and turns, so no detail can be inferred.  Which is why the BBC was even refusing to forecast beyond next Tuesday today because the models have no clue…

 

Edited June 20, 2024 by Sheffield Steve

[Physical_graffiti]

Couldn’t care less about temperature, 0 degrees to 50 I’ll wear some clothes or some other clothes, dry is what we’re after, a successful run it is then 🌞 🌈 

[Euphoricape]

10 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Much better 12z from the ECM. No pesky area of low pressure hanging around. 
 

Some showers come in for those queuing overnight…

 

 

but then Wednesday afternoon, Thursday and Friday end up dry with just the chance of a light shower…

 

a weakening front moves through during the day on Saturday giving some light rain or showers…

 

 

And then the low pressure edges closer for Sunday with a trough moving through giving some potentially heavy showers. 

 

 

But just like the GFS, every run produces twists and turns, so no detail can be inferred.  Which is why the BBC was even refusing to forecast beyond next Tuesday today because the models have no clue…

 

That's 2 different models improved substantially this evening. Let's hope for more improvements tomorrow..

[Lycra]

Did I just hear right...Louise Lear Beeb weather suggesting this warm period ends after next Wednesday 😬

[Jacko45]

3 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Did I just hear right...Louise Lear Beeb weather suggesting this warm period ends after next Wednesday 😬

 

Yes. 

[VicAtreides]

On 5/24/2024 at 1:06 PM, TiZuff said:

 

Edited June 20, 2024 by VicAtreides
I think I can deal with the cold but are we safe from the mud bath yet?

[JMB01]

How can you go from 26 degrees to 16 degrees in a day !

guess it will jump up again tomorrow!

This thread has reminded me why forecasts a week in advance can’t be taken  serious !

all part of the fun I guess though !

[VicAtreides]

Think I messed up my post above - still learning the ropes here sorry - but how safe are we from a mud bath do we think?

 

With the site current dry and dry for majority of the build, and not much rain scheduled before Wednesday, is it safe to say the only thing that could cause a lot of mud now would be torrential rain during the festival itself? 

[Dreamingofsunnydays]

18 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

That's 2 different models improved substantially this evening. Let's hope for more improvements tomorrow..

Hopefully my gillet sacrifice has made the difference 

 

[Dave_c]

47 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Indeed they are - and as long as there is no wind to whip the cold air up 16 isn't that bad if the sun shines.................. if the sun does not shine then it will feel cold out of the crowds.

It'll be chilly in the evening/overnight no matter what (based on the latest runs) which is a bit of a bummer but still, better than the wet stuff.

[Aragorn]

Daily mail on the wind up

 

Heatwave set to scorch UK next week: Met Office map reveals where temperatures will reach 29C within DAYS - after miserable June washout dampened our spirits

[Aragorn]

Next week's forecast will also please the 200,000 music lovers attending Glastonbury next week, with gates opening for the five-day festival on Wednesday (June 26).

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Aragorn said:

Daily mail on the wind up

 

Heatwave set to scorch UK next week: Met Office map reveals where temperatures will reach 29C within DAYS - after miserable June washout dampened our spirits

christ do I have to stretch to believing the daily fail ... sadly I think thats going a bit far 

[Aragorn]

[RRChip]

So, are we on the usual knife edge or what? Is it going to fall on us like the sword of Damocles or are we putting it back in the knife rack? 

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, VicAtreides said:

Think I messed up my post above - still learning the ropes here sorry - but how safe are we from a mud bath do we think?

 

 

With the site current dry and dry for majority of the build, and not much rain scheduled before Wednesday, is it safe to say the only thing that could cause a lot of mud now would be torrential rain during the festival itself? 

A couple of hours of fairly heavy rain would make the site muddy even if there no rain between now and it starting.