The Weather Thread 2022

[jparx]

1 minute ago, kevbizarre said:

Fuck the fuck.

how in 24 hours can it go from dreamland to utter despair.

any chance the tide can turn again?

I need a twist 

Course, it’ll swing back again I’m sure. And maybe back and forth a couple more times. We’re still a week out from the main days of music.

[briddj]

1 minute ago, Euphoricape said:

Roll on midnight run. Where will we be this time tomorrow? 

I'm not around for the late run tonight. I will escape the misery this time. 😐

[JoeyT]

I’d much rather be in the position that we are with the reliable timeframe showing good weather to start the festival and unreliable timeframe showing rain than the other way around…

[Alvoram]

Just now, worstmanonroad said:

BBC will be as good a barometer as any other, in years of following this annual meltdown thread these silly graphs have been about as much use as a custard dildo 

Where do you think the forecasters like the BBC get their data from? licking their thumb and holding it up to the air?

It's realising that these charts are not forecasts that's the important thing... Something it seems many forget in here. 🤷‍♂️

[briddj]

5 minutes ago, kevbizarre said:

Fuck the fuck.

how in 24 hours can it go from dreamland to utter despair.

any chance the tide can turn again?

I need a twist 

Yes.

[CaledonianGonzo]

Just now, JoeyT said:

I’d much rather be in the position that we are with the reliable timeframe showing good weather to start the festival and unreliable timeframe showing rain than the other way around…

Yeah....I guess. But it's cold comfort when ight now we're looking at the same weather as fucking Greenland for the main event.

[briddj]

2 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I’d much rather be in the position that we are with the reliable timeframe showing good weather to start the festival and unreliable timeframe showing rain than the other way around…

An excellent point.

[stopwn1981]

It’s over 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, jparx said:

Course, it’ll swing back again I’m sure. And maybe back and forth a couple more times. We’re still a week out from the main days of music.

I reckon we'll get another scorchio forecast sometime between sunday and wednesday and then it will go downhill rapidly once we're all in there and unable to get a signal to check so we won't know about it and it will become a disaster zone and we'll have to get rescued by the SAS or something.

[jparx]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

I’d much rather be in the position that we are with the reliable timeframe showing good weather to start the festival and unreliable timeframe showing rain than the other way around…

Indeed. We’re sure for a dry a start to the festival, enough sun and heat to dry out any mud this weekend. Not worth worrying about Friday-Sun for another couple days I don’t think.

[worstmanonroad]

Just now, Alvoram said:

Where do you think the forecasters like the BBC get their data from? licking their thumb and holding it up to the air?

It's realising that these charts are not forecasts that's the important thing... Something it seems many forget in here. 🤷‍♂️

it’s just all very silly 

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

Where do you think the forecasters like the BBC get their data from? licking their thumb and holding it up to the air?

It's realising that these charts are not forecasts that's the important thing... Something it seems many forget in here. 🤷‍♂️

BBC is now with meteogroup and I read that they use a mixture of models but mainly ECM.

[Billy Corgans hair]

5 minutes ago, briddj said:

I'm not around for the late run tonight. I will escape the misery this time. 😐

Absolutely shocking dedication from you. I expect better 🤔

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

Where do you think the forecasters like the BBC get their data from? licking their thumb and holding it up to the air?

It's realising that these charts are not forecasts that's the important thing... Something it seems many forget in here. 🤷‍♂️

It's not a case of forgetting - we're not meteorological experts.  Most people here think of these runs as forecasts and don't appreciate the difference, despite indulging in this shitshow of a thread every year.

What is the difference anyway?

[AlexOvd]

I am the first one who panics here, but this runs are consistent on good weather when gates open and no rain. From there, all to play. 

[PolygonWindow]

1 minute ago, jparx said:

Indeed. We’re sure for a dry a start to the festival, enough sun and heat to dry out any mud this weekend. Not worth worrying about Friday-Sun for another couple days I don’t think.

Also worth noting (if I remember rightly) bad rain was forecast for Mon and Tue on the GFS on Tuesday I believe? Now none. Correct me if I’m wrong someone.

[steviewevie]

heavy rain heading pilton way...

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

[FuzzyDunlop]

Stinker of a run.

Too hot Wednesday & Thursday... then the rain.

Drop the temps a bit for the first 2 days & the rain doesnt arrive. Constantly 18 and dry... please.

[HyperTechnoHorse]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

heavy rain heading pilton way...

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Biblical. 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

Also worth noting (if I remember rightly) bad rain was forecast for Mon and Tue on the GFS on Tuesday I believe? Now none. Correct me if I’m wrong someone.

I think....rain really hard to forecast....but pressure not so much....but problem we have next week is it's so messy with all these lows and which way they're going...A lot of it is probably dependent on the jetstream which someone mentioned earlier..it's doing a bit of a sine wave over UK at moment with it coming down over us next weekend...if it shifts either way it would make a massive difference. (something like that)

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

Stinker of a run.

Too hot Wednesday & Thursday... then the rain.

Drop the temps a bit for the first 2 days & the rain doesnt arrive. Constantly 18 and dry... please.

yeah, compromise...a soft brexit...

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I think....rain really hard to forecast....but pressure not so much....but problem we have next week is it's so messy with all these lows and which way they're going...A lot of it is probably dependent on the jetstream which someone mentioned earlier..it's doing a bit of a sine wave over UK at moment with it coming down over us next weekend...if it shifts either way it would make a massive difference. (something like that)

no, got that wrong...it's below us next weekend ...netweather has a jetstream model thingy too.

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream

[CaledonianGonzo]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

no, got that wrong...it's below us next weekend ...netweather has a jetstream model thingy too.

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream

This chart feels like it should be good news

[Alvoram]

11 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

BBC is now with meteogroup and I read that they use a mixture of models but mainly ECM.

Thanks, but it was a rhetorical question... 🙈😂

OP basically said he trusted BBC but these 'silly graphs' were nonsense. 

Which is fair enough, because the charts aren't forecasts... But you can't call them nonsense when they're the data source for those forecasts. 

On another note, I take it back, ensembles are showing a lot of confidence in rain Fri and Saturday 😞

Still time for it to change though 🙂 

Edited June 18, 2022 by Alvoram

[Abc1235]

There are some of you posting 10-20 times in a very short space of time, do you lot not have anything better to do?

It's out of our control...