When will covid end ? Please be nice and respectful to others

[steviewevie]

23 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Well, they were saying that anyway, but that it was as severe as Delta. As it seems to be milder, the numbers of hospitalisations will be lower , as  their precious models assumed the severity was the same

I think models were for a range of severity.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Any rules put in from this point onwards now it has been recognised that you are less likely to become severely ill cannot be forced on the entire population.

For instance - I'm 32, not in any of the vulnerable categories, got my 2 jabs when asked on the provision that the roadmap was irreversible and by getting jabbed I'd have my freedoms back, I then got boosted as soon as I was able to on the proviso that this would continue to give me the freedoms I usually have (which turns out the protection is very good when doing so) & after all of that it then turns out that the new mutation that everyone has shit the bed over is less likely to give severe symptoms.

Why should I follow any rules from now on? 

This is the question the majority of the country are going to be faced with going forward.

I reckon it will just be guidance...go to the pub, don't go to the pub...etc.

[JoeyT]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

I reckon it will just be guidance...go to the pub, don't go to the pub...etc.

It'll have to be guidance as you cannot put a convincing argument for forcing rules on an entire population for a variant which is considered milder.

Advise those who are possibly vulnerable to do certain things but leave the rest of us alone!

[JoeyT]

 

[steviewevie]

More good news...

 

[zahidf]

1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

Any rules put in from this point onwards now it has been recognised that you are less likely to become severely ill cannot be forced on the entire population.

For instance - I'm 32, not in any of the vulnerable categories, got my 2 jabs when asked on the provision that the roadmap was irreversible and by getting jabbed I'd have my freedoms back, I then got boosted as soon as I was able to on the proviso that this would continue to give me the freedoms I usually have (which turns out the protection is very good when doing so) & after all of that it then turns out that the new mutation that everyone has shit the bed over is less likely to give severe symptoms.

Why should I follow any rules from now on? 

This is the question the majority of the country are going to be faced with going forward.

Oh im 100% not following any rules going forward which limit who i can see

[zahidf]

Well

 

[Justiceforcedave]

1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

It'll have to be guidance as you cannot put a convincing argument for forcing rules on an entire population for a variant which is considered milder.

Advise those who are possibly vulnerable to do certain things but leave the rest of us alone!

Mind blown. I'd never thought of it like this. If the argument is strain on health services and certain groups of people are incredibly unlikely to end up in hospitable ie younger vaccinated people, then what is the logic behind asking them to stop going about their lives.

[DeanoL]

4 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Well of course they can and what we see is by and large the majority of the country follow.  The day after masks where reintroduced as a legal requirement our local supermarket went from about 5% wearing them back up to 95% wearing them.  

I think its blindly obvious where I stand on all this stuff but I have never been as stupid to think there isn't a tipping point where restrictions have to be reimposed again.   We aren't there today but we could very well be there next week.

If next week we see hospital number moving, cases continuing upwards. doctors going off ill, paramedics going off ill, NHS support staff going off ill.  You don't need lots of people in hospital to bring the country to a dangerous point - if your paramedics are cut in half because of isolation rules then you are fucked.  Yeah you could throw the isolation rules under the bus but then you get a different type of fucked.

I don't get your view point to be honest.  No way should we have locked down last week, or this week...  There just isn't enough evidence.  But are you really telling me if the evidence does start to show we have a problem you are just going to say fuck it all - I am alright jack just because Boris had some cheese and wine and is a massive c**t ? 

 

These are all very sensible and reasoned arguments but you're failing to account for the fact that enough is enough.

[Justiceforcedave]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Oh god you guys are forcing me to become fucking Pagel lol...

One pin prick and you get a small leak...   a million pin pricks and you sink the boat...  

Your mind shouldn't be blown to be honest.  The guys are purposely missing the point of where we are today.

Hand me a placard I'm taking to the streets.

[JoeyT]

11 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Well of course they can and what we see is by and large the majority of the country follow.  The day after masks where reintroduced as a legal requirement our local supermarket went from about 5% wearing them back up to 95% wearing them.  

I think its blindly obvious where I stand on all this stuff but I have never been as stupid to think there isn't a tipping point where restrictions have to be reimposed again.   We aren't there today but we could very well be there next week.

If next week we see hospital number moving, cases continuing upwards. doctors going off ill, paramedics going off ill, NHS support staff going off ill.  You don't need lots of people in hospital to bring the country to a dangerous point - if your paramedics are cut in half because of isolation rules then you are fucked.  Yeah you could throw the isolation rules under the bus but then you get a different type of fucked.

I don't get your view point to be honest.  No way should we have locked down last week, or this week...  There just isn't enough evidence.  But are you really telling me if the evidence does start to show we have a problem you are just going to say fuck it all - I am alright jack just because Boris had some cheese and wine and is a massive c**t ? 

I think I have made sensible decisions throughout this shit show.  Did the mask and distancing pre vaccines - fucked it off in the summer.   but now the game has changed again and its certainly balanced on a tipping point.

You are really saying fuck it, and fuck everyone ?  Surely there is a point where we all have to accept - yeah its looking shit again if it is in fact looking shit again...

Personally I think where we are today there wont be a need for restrictions.  But next week will be where the truth comes out I think.

 

Putting a mask on is not even remotely a comparable example to closing let's say hospitality for instance or saying "you can only meet a maximum of 6 people but only 2 families at a time"

Jesus wept 

[Neil]

the sooner Johnson goes, tbhe sooner the next twat can start fucking it up!

[hodgey123]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Do you accept there is a tipping point where you are forced into it ?  or do you think we should just live in a world with a failed health service for a few weeks instead  ?   

You seem to be saying the latter...

I agree with your posts above regarding the sheer number of cases etc. but the difference now (for me at least) is that we have been in the pandemic for almost 2 years and nothing has been done to improve hospital capacity for the inevitable surges in winter. The NHS is fucked every winter, obviously not to the same extent that COVID induces, but lockdowns cannot be used by governments as a blunt policy tool to prevent an overwhelmed NHS rather than, you know, actually funding it and improving capacity! If that's the case, then we will be locking down every winter.

[Neil]

1 minute ago, hodgey123 said:

I agree with your posts above regarding the sheer number of cases etc. but the difference now (for me at least) is that we have been in the pandemic for almost 2 years and nothing has been done to improve hospital capacity for the inevitable surges in winter. The NHS is fucked every winter, obviously not to the same extent that COVID induces, but lockdowns cannot be used by governments as a blunt policy tool to prevent an overwhelmed NHS rather than, you know, actually funding it and improving capacity! If that's the case, then we will be locking down every winter.

WE ACCEPT THE SURGE FOR FLU, SO ITS THE SAME FOR COVID, the way out is acceptinf its endemic, something we have to liver with, vaxinnes and anti-vrals are slowly chipping away at how bad it is.

[JoeyT]

In which way do you believe the health service is going to fail?

If it's through the volume of hospitalisations then surely finding a way to protect those most likely to end up there without enforcing things on everyone else is the way to go about this? 

If it's through staff shortages then reducing the isolation time will help in some way but I can understand your point in this regard more so than hospitalisations on their own.

[Neil]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

If it's through staff shortages then reducing the isolation time will help in some way but I can understand your point in this regard more so than hospitalisations on their own.

i reckon it will, there's not much the medical staff can do to stop the patients getting covid, but what they do works to a degree i went in and out of five different hospitals during the last lockdown, didnt get covid

[steviewevie]

34 minutes ago, Justiceforcedave said:

Mind blown. I'd never thought of it like this. If the argument is strain on health services and certain groups of people are incredibly unlikely to end up in hospitable ie younger vaccinated people, then what is the logic behind asking them to stop going about their lives.

this was the case from the beginning...and some were suggesting that vulnerable should be shielded and let everyone else just carry on and get herd immunity. Think it was a non starter though as too many who were vulnerable and too hard to stop them catching it....but I guess now that group that are vulnerable has got a lot smaller.

[steviewevie]

51 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Oh im 100% not following any rules going forward which limit who i can see

I quite like having an excuse not to see certain people though...especially this christmas.

[steviewevie]

43 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Well of course they can and what we see is by and large the majority of the country follow.  The day after masks where reintroduced as a legal requirement our local supermarket went from about 5% wearing them back up to 95% wearing them.  

I think its blindly obvious where I stand on all this stuff but I have never been as stupid to think there isn't a tipping point where restrictions have to be reimposed again.   We aren't there today but we could very well be there next week.

If next week we see hospital number moving, cases continuing upwards. doctors going off ill, paramedics going off ill, NHS support staff going off ill.  You don't need lots of people in hospital to bring the country to a dangerous point - if your paramedics are cut in half because of isolation rules then you are fucked.  Yeah you could throw the isolation rules under the bus but then you get a different type of fucked.

I don't get your view point to be honest.  No way should we have locked down last week, or this week...  There just isn't enough evidence.  But are you really telling me if the evidence does start to show we have a problem you are just going to say fuck it all - I am alright jack just because Boris had some cheese and wine and is a massive c**t ? 

I think I have made sensible decisions throughout this shit show.  Did the mask and distancing pre vaccines - fucked it off in the summer.   but now the game has changed again and its certainly balanced on a tipping point.

You are really saying fuck it, and fuck everyone ?  Surely there is a point where we all have to accept - yeah its looking shit again if it is in fact looking shit again...

Personally I think where we are today there wont be a need for restrictions.  But next week will be where the truth comes out I think.

 

Woah.

[steviewevie]

Still a lot of uncertainty...we still don't know how much more cases are going to rise, and we still don't know if hospitals will run out of icu/acute beds. Just have to keep following the data like our great leader says.

[zahidf]

11 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

This is true in the long term - and if we are there now or not will be tested in the coming week.  If we ride it out then we can safely put it in the Flu box and say its going to hurt the NHS but it will keep functioning - and covid is probably never again something that truly bothers us.

But if we aren't quite there yet then surely you have to do other things ?   then its not like Flu at all...  not yet anyway.

Last Jan the NHS has 34,000.00 hospitlised at one time cos of covid and it didnt collapse.

 

This year we have around 7500 and it doesnt look like its going to get close to what we had last year. And cos of triple jabs, its not going to grow exponentially to infinity

 

So i dont think there is a situation at present where the NHS will 'collapse'

[JoeyT]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

I don't believe the health service will fail.  As I keep saying I think / hopeful we are at or close to the peak. 

But I could be wrong...  and if I am wrong then you have no choice but to act ?   Would you agree ?   You seem reluctant to say if we are wrong what would you do next..   Its a pretty binary choice between more much harder restrictions or letting the health service burn. 

I'm not reluctant at all in regards to saying what what we do next. This entirely depends on which way it is believed the health service will fall on it's knees.

I think it's pretty clear that if this is from hospitalisations then given the fact it's looking increasingly more likely that the new variant is less severe we should protect those still at risk having said this rather than look at society as a whole.

If it's from staff shortages then I don't know what the answer is necessarily but there has to be another way than imposing restrictions surely?!

[hodgey123]

@Barry Fish the key difference between this and the flu in terms of breaking the NHS is that you would not be required to self-isolate if you had come into close contact with someone who had the flu but you were asymptomatic, or if you had next to no flu symptoms. I don't think the issue will be hospitalisations (which although a lagging indicator are still not showing any real signs of exploding, and we are starting from a lower base than last January), it will be the fact that a lot of people will be off if Omicron spreads wildly, but at that stage you are then accepting we aren't 'living with it' at all.

[Neil]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Last Jan the NHS has 34,000.00 hospitlised at one time cos of covid and it didnt collapse.

it was the end of february when i hit the hospital and it was coping ok-ish from what i could see right now i'm thinking of the wonderful staff who looked after me, feel quite emotional about it

[hodgey123]

Think we are all making the same argument at this stage just disagree about whether restrictions are the answer!