When will covid end ? Please be nice and respectful to others

[JoeyT]

I don't really understand why this Plan B shite is even in the news now.

If we continue to see a sustained drop in cases it's irrelevant isn't it?!

[efcfanwirral]

5 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I don't really understand why this Plan B shite is even in the news now.

If we continue to see a sustained drop in cases it's irrelevant isn't it?!

Yeah but its the very start of winter - we saw what happened last November and December, and while there's modelling saying it'll go down by Christmas, it's pretty much the same modelling that said 100k cases / 7k hospitalisations so I'm not believing that any more than the more outlandish models in the other direction.

If we get through to Feb/March without it getting bad enough to have restrictions we can confidently say we're all good, but for now it's not even started

Edited October 26, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[lost]

3 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I don't really understand why this Plan B shite is even in the news now.

If we continue to see a sustained drop in cases it's irrelevant isn't it?!

I think it maybe based on vaccine/booster takeup rather than case numbers as a coercive thing.

Purely anecdotal and maybe fantastic at keeping you out of hospital but AstraZeneca in particular seems to be absolutely dogshit at stopping you catching covid and passing it on. I know more post jabbed people that have had it than before the jabs came out.

[DeanoL]

20 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

On the question on who would have been happy to see die in your own family.  Its obviously a ridiculous question as no one is going go serve up a loved one.  But if the question if I would of accepted a riskier existence for my own gran to avoid lockdowns then yes I would of done.  The idea lockdowns save lives has always been on weak ground.

But it's nearly always someone's loved one. It's an interesting thought experiment as it determines whether you actually deeply hold the fundamental view that the deaths are a valid trade-off for more freedom, or not normalise lockdowns or whatever, or rather based on your own personal circumstances, you're willing to gamble that it won't be you. In your case it's the second one, and there's absolutely nothing wrong with that - but it's important to realise that that choice is based on your personal circumstances (how vulnerable your loved ones are, how effectively they can be shielded and so on). Which means others in different circumstances might feel differently, and you have see that as valid also, even if it's not what you'd do.

20 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The reason people die from covid is because3

- They went out and caught it in the first place

- They don’t have a good enough immune system to fight off a relatively minor virus.

They didn't necessarily go out. Someone may have "come in" and passed it on to them. The notion that everyone can just shut themselves away from any human contact whatsoever for 12 months is, as we say, for the birds. Even the mental health stuff aside, it's just not practical. Vulnerable people often live with other people (even more so as they often need health) and these are often family members. Who have other jobs they have to go do to pay the mortgage on the place they're living in. Or they're visited by carers who also visit a load of other people and can spread it around. Or if those carers are vulnerable because they're diabetic or obese they then can't even do that job...

The only way it would work is if you were to put all the vulnerable people in big houses where they were all looked after together. Which is what care homes are, and we saw how that worked out.

19 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

It’s all over for fake SAGE 😂😂😂

 

 

Deepti 😂

Pagel 😂😂

 

 

 

 

Clarke 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

This is like your tenth post about how fake SAGE are done in this thread 😄

 

[DeanoL]

17 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

You seemed to be happy with restrictions throughout which actually did say fuck em to some of those people on the list in favour of covid patients.

You aren't bright enough to work that out sadly.  Plenty of people missed chemo etc.

That happened because hospitals were overloaded because of COVID patients, not because of restrictions. I don't disagree that we got the triage wrong on COVID versus other illness. Very badly wrong in a lot of cases. 

But that's nothing to do with restrictions - beyond maybe the idea that if we'd bought in restrictions sooner we could have avoided having to triage at all.

[Barry Fish]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

That happened because hospitals were overloaded because of COVID patients, not because of restrictions. I don't disagree that we got the triage wrong on COVID versus other illness. Very badly wrong in a lot of cases. 

But that's nothing to do with restrictions - beyond maybe the idea that if we'd bought in restrictions sooner we could have avoided having to triage at all.

Not true..   it was the fear of overloading.  A key difference .  The hospitals where never at a point of overload.  

The enquiry need to examine this more closely to see if it was right or not 

Edited October 26, 2021 by Barry Fish

[zahidf]

Mental 

[Barry Fish]

19 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Mental 

Strong suggestions the Chinese are using lockdowns and covid to get rid of "undesirables"

[DeanoL]

1 hour ago, Barry Fish said:

Not true..   it was the fear of overloading.  A key difference .  The hospitals where never at a point of overload.  

The enquiry need to examine this more closely to see if it was right or not 

They were - even after other wards were converted to COVID wards, they were more aggressively triaging at the ambulance stage. 

The notion of hospitals being "overloaded" is a difficult one as it never looks that way because it's not how most of the system works. Rather you call an ambulance, they make an assessment and then take you in to one or not. And they were operating under instructions based on how many beds were actually available. 

Again, I'd really recommend the book Failures of State (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Failures-State-Inside-Britains-Coronavirus/dp/0008430527) as it covers a lot of what was actually happening at that point in hospitals, but for the gist here's something from The Guardian's review that also speaks a bit to the point you're making:

Quote

There are lesser-known horrors in the catalogue too. The authors are keen to explode the comforting narrative that the NHS coped with the pandemic even at its peak, and that everyone got the care they needed. They report that some hospitals were forced to ration treatment according to a set of guidelines that struck doctors and nurses as “Nazi-like”, denying intensive care to those who scored too high on three metrics: age, frailty and underlying conditions. Whole categories of people – the old, the weak, the disabled – were denied the critical care that might have saved their lives.

Incredibly, the guidelines were so rigorously enforced that in one Midlands hospital, dozens of intensive care beds lay empty, kept free for younger, fitter patients, while those over-75 were left dying on regular wards, without even being offered non-invasive ventilation. It meant that of the patients who died at the height of the pandemic in April, just 10% had received any intensive care.

Yes, the hospitals were not physically overloaded, and yes some had spare capacity, but that was down to extreme rationing of care, not because there weren't really that many bad cases.

(And you and I probably agree that actually, we should have rationed even further and still done important cancer operations and other "less urgent" but still life-saving interventions)

[zahidf]

Case for Plan B continues to melt away

 

[lost]

Melbourne finally out of lockdown and a new record for life pissed up the wall. Hopefully we won't re-take it this winter.

[JoeyT]

I wonder when Oz will open up. 

My parents are desperate to visit my sister and brother in law in Perth which seemingly might actually end up opening up after the rest of the country anyway.

[Barry Fish]

11 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I wonder when Oz will open up. 

My parents are desperate to visit my sister and brother in law in Perth which seemingly might actually end up opening up after the rest of the country anyway.

My friend hasn't seen her daughter in over two years.

[El Matador]

6 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

Yeah but its the very start of winter - we saw what happened last November and December, and while there's modelling saying it'll go down by Christmas, it's pretty much the same modelling that said 100k cases / 7k hospitalisations so I'm not believing that any more than the more outlandish models in the other direction.

If we get through to Feb/March without it getting bad enough to have restrictions we can confidently say we're all good, but for now it's not even started

It indicates that there's a ceiling at which case numbers will level off and then drop though as immunity builds.

I'm as optimistic as I've been that this winter is going to be nowhere near as bad as feared. 

[zahidf]

Fake SAGE (via PAGEL) says its just half term and less testing keeping cases down. And that we need plan B + now to keep cases as low as possible.

[Fuzzy Afro]

9 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Fake SAGE (via PAGEL) says its just half term and less testing keeping cases down. And that we need plan B + now to keep cases as low as possible.

 

Half term started yesterday.

 

There is no way that it's coming through into the rates yet.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[Barry Fish]

33 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

 

Half term started yesterday.

 

There is no way that it's coming through into the rates yet.

Half term spans three weeks.  Some kids have two weeks off and some kids have a week off. 

Another week and a half to go 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Half term spans three weeks.  Some kids have two weeks off and some kids have a week off. 

Another week and a half to go 

Some kids off last week?

[Barry Fish]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Nice Shipman joke.. funny guy 

[Barry Fish]

Just now, steviewevie said:

Some kids off last week?

Yup

My eldest off for the last two weeks 

My youngest off the next two

Wife off for this week - teacher 

It's a real mix bag 

 

[efcfanwirral]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Yup

My eldest off for the last two weeks 

My youngest off the next two

Wife off for this week - teacher 

It's a real mix bag 

 

That can't be easy planning stuff! 

[Barry Fish]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

That can't be easy planning stuff! 

Yeah it's a Ballache lol 

The joys of having three schools in your life 😀 

[zahidf]

15 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

He's just a twitter mathematician though. Why is he getting so involved in public health issues as to how many people die every day? There's a reason why I'm avoiding knowing that number in general.