news & politics:discussion

[fred quimby]

3 hours ago, steviewevie said:

I snogged a Russian once.

Was it the chap you interviewed today?

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, fred quimby said:

Was it the chap you interviewed today?

no, I wish.

[steviewevie]

starting to thing maybe he's a spy though. Must be strong and not let personal feelings cloud my judgement.

[steviewevie]

kind of feels inevitable that this is going to escalate to Nato vs Russia.

[steviewevie]

Need Xi to have a word.

[steviewevie]

Putin has a cunning plan.

 

[steviewevie]

I know NATO don't want to get involved, but what happens if it gets real bad in Kyiv with mass destruction of the city and a large number of dead civilians and displaced people? What if Russia use a short range nuke? Does NATO just watch it happen? Are NATO going to end up supporting a forever insurgency until eventually something gives?

[efcfanwirral]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

kind of feels inevitable that this is going to escalate to Nato vs Russia.

Yeah it does look that way.

That said, while public opinion would probably be along the "do something" lines now, not sure how long that would last if those same people were told they needed to go to the front lines themselves...

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Yeah it does look that way.

That said, while public opinion would probably be along the "do something" lines now, not sure how long that would last if those same people were told they needed to go to the front lines themselves...

NATO (US) military forces are so much bigger than Russia's aren't they? I don't think there would be people getting called up to any front line. I think it would escalate rapidly to drone wars..and then maybe nukes.

[Ozanne]

7 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Yeah it does look that way.

That said, while public opinion would probably be along the "do something" lines now, not sure how long that would last if those same people were told they needed to go to the front lines themselves...

I don’t think so, Russia won’t attack NATO and this will become some more endless war. The planes being given to Ukraine is going through a different country via the US so will be argued that NATO haven’t got involved. 

[steviewevie]

 

[Zoo Music Girl]

11 hours ago, Kurosagi said:

For those that live in London and are free tomorrow night, this looks like an excellent way to raise money for Ukraine:

https://www.roundhouse.org.uk/whats-on/2022/night-for-ukraine/

Seems a bit silly that they're not setting a camera up and doing tickets for streaming to raise extra cash, but hope someone on here can go and let me know how it went!

I'd love to go but sadly I'm working late. Agree with you on the streaming front.

On a similar note for comedy fans I wasn't able to go this but we have tickets for the live stream:

https://www.gfsboxoffice.com/event.php?rhlstp=no&id=48249

[Zoo Music Girl]

5 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Anyone watching Zelensky address house of commons?

I saw it. Found it quite moving actually.

[philipsteak]

8 hours ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I'd love to go but sadly I'm working late. Agree with you on the streaming front.

On a similar note for comedy fans I wasn't able to go this but we have tickets for the live stream:

https://www.gfsboxoffice.com/event.php?rhlstp=no&id=48249

Thanks, was waiting for them to announce a live stream

[steviewevie]

The US are denying this Polish plane thing. Nato not so united.

[efcfanwirral]

11 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

The USA would crush the Russians in a none nuke war.  Total air superiority and more technologically advanced by some tune.  Much bigger budget.

I think a direct conflict would see quite a bloody long drawn out war if we tried to invade Russia though rather than just reduce what they are doing in Ukraine.  How it ended though I don't think is for certain - defeat can look like many things - not certain it would end with nukes the more I think about it.  I mean you still have to be an utter mad man to do it....

Ive always thought that all wars DO have a tactical aim around territory and have end goals, and I include this one even if we're only supposed to say he's "mad" and not even acknowledge that there might be tactics and a plan involved. You can't rule over a completely destroyed territory so nukes actually being used doesn't sound realistic. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

The US are denying this Polish plane thing. Nato not so united.

Can you explain it for me? I've got a bit lost in the weeds of this one.

[fred quimby]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

The US are denying this Polish plane thing. Nato not so united.

Called doing a Putin

[fred quimby]

51 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Can you explain it for me? I've got a bit lost in the weeds of this one.

The polish Government have said they are handing over their planes to the USA at a German airbase and that the Americans will give Poland other planes.

[steviewevie]

18 minutes ago, fred quimby said:

The polish Government have said they are handing over their planes to the USA at a German airbase and that the Americans will give Poland other planes.

yeah, I think it was because Poles have planes that Ukrainians would know how to fly, MIG-29s...so give those to US...and I guess idea was then US would give to Ukraine. I'm not sure why they need to do this indirectly, I guess makes it more a whole Nato decision and with the full support of US.

Anyway, US support not there, too risky of escalation. Sorry Ukraine.

[Neil]

14 hours ago, steviewevie said:

I know NATO don't want to get involved, but what happens if it gets real bad in Kyiv with mass destruction of the city and a large number of dead civilians and displaced people? What if Russia use a short range nuke? Does NATO just watch it happen? Are NATO going to end up supporting a forever insurgency until eventually something gives?

THDERE'/D BE SOME AIR DROPS LESS ,LIKELY TO BE ATTACKED BY RUSSIA

[Neil]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, I think it was because Poles have planes that Ukrainians would know how to fly, MIG-29s...so give those to US...and I guess idea was then US would give to Ukraine. I'm not sure why they need to do this indirectly, I guess makes it more a whole Nato decision and with the full support of US.

Anyway, US support not there, too risky of escalation. Sorry Ukraine.

THE YANKS DOBN'T WANT TO GIVE PLANES AWAY FOR FREE.

[steviewevie]

This from New Statesman morning email I get....about the Polish plane thing...

Good morning. Is the Ukrainian air force on the verge of doubling in size, or not? Last night the Polish foreign ministry released a surprise statement committing to the immediate release of their 28 MiG-29 fighter jets, but offered to send them to the United States not Ukraine – specifically to Ramstein, a US air base in Germany. The proposal blindsided the Americans, who soon poured cold water on it.

A well-placed Polish source described Poland’s statement to me last night as "the Polish government coming out from under the bus the US tried to throw it under". In the past week the US (and UK) have encouraged Poland to send its jets to Ukraine, while distancing themselves completely from any decision to do so. Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, said on Sunday that Poland had the “green light” to do so, implying, as the Polish source put it, that “Poland is blocking something, Poland is the obstacle”. 

In reality, I am told, the US had no plan to get directly involved in the transfer of planes to Ukraine; they are planning catch-up after a number of US senators were persuaded of the idea by Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, in a video call on Saturday morning. What yesterday’s statement by Poland has usefully revealed is the real obstacle to the delivery of these fighter jets: the backing of other Western governments, who were trying to avoid sharing any risk with Poland. Ben Wallace, the UK Defence Secretary, took pains yesterday morning to emphasise that Poland alone would face the “blowback” from any such transfer – it would, in other words, be nothing to do with the UK.

There is a spinelessness here: either the US and UK (and Germany, whose approval will be necessary for any transfer via Ramstein) are willing to help a Nato ally transfer these planes to Ukraine or they are not. By going public, Poland appears to have shrewdly exposed the gulf between Western words and actions.

The whole episode exemplifies the powerless situation the West is now in – or has put itself in. That powerlessness was felt directly inside the Commons yesterday as a packed house listened to Zelensky’s extraordinary video address to parliament. I was in the chamber, and there was a strangeness to watching Zelensky live as we caught his words in translation on delay. It was historic and unmissable, but after the applause and affection an air of impotence hung over the chamber.

As the minister Penny Mordaunt put it to me afterwards, “it’s very difficult to watch what’s happening with people being shelled”, but “Putin’s playbook is to fire on civilians, and we’re going to, I’m too sorry to say, see more of that.” Despite arming Ukraine on the ground – and having done so “before it was fashionable”, as a minister put it to me – there is much that the UK (and the rest of the West) have decided they will not do to help Ukraine. Nevertheless, as shells and missiles continue to hit Ukrainians the pressure is on the US to get Poland’s planes – and whatever else can assist – to Ukraine in haste.

[Zoo Music Girl]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, I think it was because Poles have planes that Ukrainians would know how to fly, MIG-29s...so give those to US...and I guess idea was then US would give to Ukraine. I'm not sure why they need to do this indirectly, I guess makes it more a whole Nato decision and with the full support of US.

Anyway, US support not there, too risky of escalation. Sorry Ukraine.

 

2 hours ago, fred quimby said:

The polish Government have said they are handing over their planes to the USA at a German airbase and that the Americans will give Poland other planes.

Cheers. Not sure if Putin would care so much which Nato partner supplied them? I don't really get why supplying planes so much worse from an escalation point of view than all the other stuff we've provided? Is that a red line?

[steviewevie]

22 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

 

Cheers. Not sure if Putin would care so much which Nato partner supplied them? I don't really get why supplying planes so much worse from an escalation point of view than all the other stuff we've provided? Is that a red line?

yeah, getting more and more difficult for Nato to keep out of it...as western populations are appalled what they're seeing on tv and want their governments do more...and western governments not wanting to start WW3.