news & politics:discussion

[Ozanne]

32 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

The old Ashdown gambit.

Man I miss Ashdown. And Clarke. 

My social plans for today have been rained off so there is a very real chance of me following this coverage for most of the day now.

Is the result due today?

[Fuzzy Afro]

Bailey won’t win but I’d fucking love it if he does after Sadiq Khan’s dreadful four years. 

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Is the result due today?

should get all mayoral ones today, and the Scotland result.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[Gingerfish79]

Mark Drakeford demonstrating that Labour can be successful with strong, progressive leadership. Unfortunately, that discounts Starmer. 

[steviewevie]

Just now, Gingerfish79 said:

Mark Drakeford demonstrating that Labour can be successful with strong, progressive leadership. Unfortunately, that discounts Starmer. 

it's funny...I don't know much about him really, but there were people on here and the shit thread saying that labour were going to get a kicking in these elections because of Drakeford's downbeat press briefings and decisions during the pandemic...but it seems to be he is actually very popular and is one of the main reasons for labour doing so well there.

[Zoo Music Girl]

47 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Is the result due today?

This evening I think.

[Matt42]

1 hour ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Difference for me is that Johnson's profile was huge when he went for mayor. It was a real personality driven contest between him and Livingstone. It could be just me but I've seen bollocks all of Bailey to get that same traction.

Even if Sadiq continues on and wins by a short majority this has been a wake up call for me.

I think many lefties (like me) really underestimate how popular Boris Johnson is with people. I need to stop underestimating him because he has exceeded expectations at virtually every  opportunity so far.

What’s the record for the best landslide the tories have ever had? If things continue as they are and the Labour Party continues to squabble i think Boris will best it.

When the BBC put out that poll yesterday that the tories would have 327 seats I just laughed. It’s noway like that at the moment. They are underestimating Boris.

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Even if Sadiq continues on and wins by a short majority this has been a wake up call for me.

I think many lefties (like me) really underestimate how popular Boris Johnson is with people. I need to stop underestimating him because he has exceeded expectations at virtually every  opportunity so far.

What’s the record for the best landslide the tories have ever had? If things continue as they are and the Labour Party continues to squabble i think Boris will best it.

When the BBC put out that poll yesterday that the tories would have 327 seats I just laughed. It’s noway like that at the moment. They are underestimating Boris.

Got to be Thatcher surely?

[Matt42]

29 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

I think Labour need to walk away from the student vote and let the greens have them.

They need to target the red constituencies that are swinging blue and make that the core heart of their policy. They need to let the student vote go.

[Matt42]

Just now, Zoo Music Girl said:

Got to be Thatcher surely?

Yes I am just trying to find the seat number... 397 seats? Boris can definitely do that.

[Zoo Music Girl]

Just now, Matt42 said:

Yes I am just trying to find the seat number... 397 seats? Boris can definitely do that.

Just googling around it and 2019 is widely considered to be one of their better landslides too. 

[Matt42]

Just now, Zoo Music Girl said:

Just googling around it and 2019 is widely considered to be one of their better landslides too. 

Boris got 365 seats in 2019. He can easily gain 32+ seats in the next election. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I think Labour need to walk away from the student vote and let the greens have them.

They need to target the red constituencies that are swinging blue and make that the core heart of their policy. They need to let the student vote go.

Interesting opportunity for the Lib Dems if they did that. When I was at uni a lot of students voted Lib Dems, even before Clegg. People forget that Labour weren't popular with that demographic due to the war and bringing in tuition fees. Labour haven't really had them sewn up for that long (not saying no students voted Labour back then, but the Lib Dems used to do a lot better out of them). Greens would obviously benefit too.

[Matt42]

2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Interesting opportunity for the Lib Dems if they did that. When I was at uni a lot of students voted Lib Dems, even before Clegg. People forget that Labour weren't popular with that demographic due to the war and bringing in tuition fees. Labour haven't really had them sewn up for that long (not saying no students voted Labour back then, but the Lib Dems used to do a lot better out of them). Greens would obviously benefit too.

Yeah I think so too - you’re right though that they need to switch off Twitter and not be swayed away from this decision. It will be very annoying for young Labour voters and I feel for them, but we’ve had enough evidence now that the student youth vision for Labour is killing the party. They may jump to greens and Lib Dem but I doubt it would be at a scale that would hugely damage the Labour Party. 
 

People my age / younger fail to see that there is a good reason why the Conservatives don’t target the youth. They aren’t a huge voting majority. Labour thinks that every student voting for them will win them an election.

[Ommadawn]

7 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Even if Sadiq continues on and wins by a short majority this has been a wake up call for me.

I think many lefties (like me) really underestimate how popular Boris Johnson is with people. I need to stop underestimating him because he has exceeded expectations at virtually every  opportunity so far.

What’s the record for the best landslide the tories have ever had? If things continue as they are and the Labour Party continues to squabble i think Boris will best it.

When the BBC put out that poll yesterday that the tories would have 327 seats I just laughed. It’s noway like that at the moment. They are underestimating Boris.

Could I politely suggest that it's not underestimating Boris that's the problem. It's underestimating the more moderate leaning Labour voters ability to switch their votes to the Tories. There was a lot in the last Labour manifesto which I'm sure appealed much more to you than it did me. That's Labour's problem. They have to fight an election with a manifesto we can both accept.

[Matt42]

5 minutes ago, Ommadawn said:

Could I politely suggest that it's not underestimating Boris that's the problem. It's underestimating the more moderate leaning Labour voters ability to switch their votes to the Tories. There was a lot in the last Labour manifesto which I'm sure appealed much more to you than it did me. That's Labour's problem. They have to fight an election with a manifesto we can both accept.

Here’s the kicker. I don’t think they can. The Labour Party is straggling two sides that want different things. The tories have one unified vision and direction.

I’ve definitely underestimated Boris Johnson. Much of the voting is based more on the doorstep than I thought. People feel that Boris is more competent of a leader and gets things done. They like that he’s rough around the edges but they have visible evidence in front of them that he delivers.

Moderate Labour voters switching to Tory speaks volumes. Boris is the epitome of what I imagine moderate labour would despise - he’s as bullingdon, toff, and posh as they come. Moderate Labour voting Tory is because people are willing to see past it because ... shock to me... people see him as competent. 

I don’t think people are holding their nose and voting for Boris anymore. I think people believe in him.

Edited May 8, 2021 by Matt42

[Comfy Bean]

Just catching up on the news and right here, right now in Scotland....

SNP - 41 seats

Tories - 3 (three)

As everyone with a letter box north of the border knows, the Tories campaigned hard with a single issue on all their merch - No to a 2nd "divisive referendum". 

List seats to be allocated shortly. Hopefully a decent number of Greens. They`ve consistently got good concessions from the SNP for supporting their budgets.

Edited May 8, 2021 by Comfy Bean

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Here’s the kicker. I don’t think they can. The Labour Party is straggling two sides that want different things. The tories have one unified vision and direction.

I’ve definitely underestimated Boris Johnson. Much of the voting is based more on the doorstep than I thought. People feel that Boris is more competent of a leader and gets things done. They like that he’s rough around the edges but they have visible evidence in front of them that he delivers.

Moderate Labour voters switching to Tory speaks volumes. Boris is the epitome of what I imagine moderate labour would despise - he’s as bullingdon, toff, and posh as they come. Moderate Labour voting Tory is because people are willing to see past it because ... shock to me... people see him as competent. 

I don’t think people are holding their nose and voting for Boris anymore. I think people believe in him.

well, eventually brexit will be a distant memory, and Boris will lose his shine. What they going to fight now? The BBC? Black lives matter?

[Mimo]

52 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

About 99% of twitter users should stay off twitter really. It's so ridden with bots that anything posted on there by way of opinion should be completely disregarded. Taken me a long time to whittle down who I follow to about 10 sensible people to make it a useful resource for keeping me informed, and then it's only just about bearable if you never ever ever read the replies. Anyone who posts anything opinionated gets the chop from my list (except Ian Dunt). I never post or reply.

I hate it so much but I still end up on there most days!

[mattiloy]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

well, eventually brexit will be a distant memory, and Boris will lose his shine. What they going to fight now? The BBC? Black lives matter?

Yes. The right sustains itself on insecurity. They’ll manufacture some other crisis if one doesnt present itself 

[Matt42]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

well, eventually brexit will be a distant memory, and Boris will lose his shine. What they going to fight now? The BBC? Black lives matter?

Tories and Labour will fight on investment and social infrastructure I believe. The tories were rolling out a ‘levelling up’ plan for across the country before COVID. I believe the future of debate between the two will be about resources and what the tories invest in. (Barring no supervening event like COVID coming around).

If the tories deliver their levelling up plan to places like the red wall / especially Hartlepool... Labour are truly fucked. As you say Labour will have nothing on the tories if the tories actually introduce measures to revitalise social infrastructure.

The argument labour will make is whether the tories have actually benefitted your local area and what labour would do differently. Sucks I know. 

Edited May 8, 2021 by Matt42