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Ayrshire Chris Grand Master

Ayrshire Chris

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

SNP majority is done now I'd say, but pro-indy majority should be strong. Hoping for autumn next year/spring 2023

Sturgeon will carefully analyse the result before making any request for a referendum. They will have a pro Indy majority with the greens but are still below 50% of the popular vote despite the large turnout. She will know a referendum campaign will focus attention on the currency issue, the hard border, the share of the deficit, meeting the fiscal requirements to rejoin the EU, taxation and meeting the costs of pensions and benefits. Such issues could easily lose her votes unless she can prove otherwise. The last referendum white paper was, even according to many nationalists, just a vague wish list. They have work to do to convince the sceptics. One thing that sturgeon will be happy with is seeing off Salmond who would lobby for a quicker vote. And expect a third way, possibly a federal system in the UK. Scottish Labour and the Lib Dem’s have flirted with this for years.  Interesting times ahead. 

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SwedgeAntilles Community Regular

SwedgeAntilles

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, would be funny.

He wouldn't dare risk it.

Agreed. He'll dodge it, as will the party. They know how toxic he is to Scotland.

It's mental that a man's toxicity can increase so extraordinarily journeying from Carlisle to North Berwick  

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SwedgeAntilles Community Regular

SwedgeAntilles

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2 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

Sturgeon will carefully analyse the result before making any request for a referendum. They will have a pro Indy majority with the greens but are still below 50% of the popular vote despite the large turnout. She will know a referendum campaign will focus attention on the currency issue, the hard border, the share of the deficit, meeting the fiscal requirements to rejoin the EU, taxation and meeting the costs of pensions and benefits. Such issues could easily lose her votes unless she can prove otherwise. The last referendum white paper was, even according to many nationalists, just a vague wish list. They have work to do to convince the sceptics. One thing that sturgeon will be happy with is seeing off Salmond who would lobby for a quicker vote. And expect a third way, possibly a federal system in the UK. Scottish Labour and the Lib Dem’s have flirted with this for years.  Interesting times ahead. 

Agreed. 

I also respect your reasons listed for being against independence. They're fair, objective, rooted in economics and (I agree actually) are the SNP's weaknesses. That's the level we should be debating on, none of this my flag is bigger than your flag nonsense. 

I'm not sure about federalism. I'm naturally a Labour supporter but their failed attempts at pushing something like federalism/devo-max is one of the reasons I lost faith. They have to start firming their position up.

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Ayrshire Chris Grand Master

Ayrshire Chris

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10 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

Agreed. 

I also respect your reasons listed for being against independence. They're fair, objective, rooted in economics and (I agree actually) are the SNP's weaknesses. That's the level we should be debating on, none of this my flag is bigger than your flag nonsense. 

I'm not sure about federalism. I'm naturally a Labour supporter but their failed attempts at pushing something like federalism/devo-max is one of the reasons I lost faith. They have to start firming their position up.

Yes, sensible debate  and properly costed policies have been in short supply on all sides . Politicians seem to prefer the flag waving , soundbites and empty rhetoric but that seems to be the way in politics everywhere now, not just Scotland.  Just my opinion but I think the standard of politicians on all sides now is pretty poor compared with the past. Maybe just my age! 

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On 3/18/2021 at 7:14 PM, mattiloy said:

Labour will lose Hartlepool. They've parachuted some pro EU centrist southerner in for the by election post a sexual harassment scandal involving the sitting MP. Will be more interesting to see by how much they lose.

 

On 3/19/2021 at 2:10 AM, OG said:

Is this serious? Labour have been in local power for nearly 50 years and after the shit that the conservative government have rained down on places like Hartlepool for years you expect them to switch and vote for them

 

On 3/18/2021 at 11:19 PM, mattiloy said:


Nope. There is some activity over on twitter - seems like old forensic bollocks didn't do his homework here.. over before it started

image.png

 

On 3/19/2021 at 2:36 AM, OG said:

Valid or not, the voters of Hartlepool have bigger issues to decide who to vote for other than a Labour MP tweeting about MILFS

I eat my words

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SwedgeAntilles

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Just now, Ayrshire Chris said:

Yes, sensible debate, polarised opinions  and properly costed policies have been in short supply on all sides . Politicians seem to prefer the flag waving , soundbites and empty rhetoric but that seems to be the way in politics everywhere now, not just Scotland.  Just my opinion but I think the standard of politicians on all sides now is pretty poor compared with the past. Maybe just my age! 

No I agree, if I think about the political heavyweights of my lifetime - Blair, Brown, Ashdown, Kennedy, Clarke - their contemporaries are nowhere near. However I'd argue Sturgeon is at another level. I don't agree with all of her politics, but she's an excellent politician and a fantastic leader of her party (particularly compared to her predecessor)

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SwedgeAntilles

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Just now, fraybentos1 said:

That is literally what we have now. No indy ref 2 happened in the las term- why would it now? She won't want to hold it til she is sure she will win. She won't be atm.

As she said, because of covid. She'll be FM first and foremost. 

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