Primavera Sound 2021

[Andrej]

We'll see. Hope for the best. But if the vaccine comes in, I dont know, March or April, i guess thats too late for festival season 2021.

[thespiral]

21 hours ago, Andrej said:

We'll see. Hope for the best. But if the vaccine comes in, I dont know, March or April, i guess thats too late for festival season 2021.

Yep. Heard many scientists recently reminding people that even when available the vaccine could easily take 12 months, even years to fully roll out to everyone. 
 

Edited October 19, 2020 by thespiral

[thespiral]

On 10/14/2020 at 2:55 PM, JedTheHumanoid said:

speaking of tickets - guys who have a ticket from Dice - was your ticket replaced by a ticket to next year? I still see my ticket to PS in August 2020

 

Same here - still have tickets showing in Past Events.

[daveje]

The last people to get the vaccine will be the people who tend to go to festivals.

The last events to re-open will be international festivals.

[Quadrophobia]

1 hour ago, daveje said:

The last people to get the vaccine will be the people who tend to go to festivals.

The last events to re-open will be international festivals.

This.

Also, the speculations here are, once again, absurd.

There is no chance that NA acts pull out and just like that will be replaced by European acts. The majority of headliners are NA Acts plus Tame Impala for whom the same applies, even if they wouldn't operate from the US. All big tours I know of have been scheduled far into 2022, with smaller ones happening no earlier than late 2021. No big act will schedule a new tour for mid 2021 now, let alone enough to fill in for all the NA Artists at PS.

Right now, PS21 seems very unlikely. If there is no absolute planning certainty by January, June Festivals are not gonna happen.

Edited October 19, 2020 by Quadrophobia

[chilirocker]

2 hours ago, daveje said:

The last people to get the vaccine will be the people who tend to go to festivals.

The last events to re-open will be international festivals.

I think if the vulnerable can start to be vaccinated from the start of the year, with a combination of rapid testing - large scale events will reopen. I think that is likely to happen by May 2021, which might cut it a bit too fine for Primavera to happen, so I wouldn't be surprised if it is moved to August. I think end of June/July is more realistic for music festivals to restart.

[xxialac]

1 hour ago, Quadrophobia said:

This.

Also, the speculations here are, once again, absurd.

There is no chance that NA acts pull out and just like that will be replaced by European acts. The majority of headliners are NA Acts plus Tame Impala for whom the same applies, even if they wouldn't operate from the US. All big tours I know of have been scheduled far into 2022, with smaller ones happening no earlier than late 2021. No big act will schedule a new tour for mid 2021 now, let alone enough to fill in for all the NA Artists at PS.

Right now, PS21 seems very unlikely. If there is no absolute planning certainty by January, June Festivals are not gonna happen.

I don't see why a combination of smaller (one person in particular) European acts can't fill in for some of the missing NA acts - think Skepta, Jamie XX etc filing in at even shorter notice in the past - plus some European bands already touring but not playing the festival.  

These are exceptional circumstances and even with weaker headliners it's still a viable festival with the pent-up demand.

 

[JedTheHumanoid]

18 hours ago, thespiral said:

Yep. Heard many scientists recently reminding people that even when available the vaccine could easily take 12 months, even years to fully roll out to everyone. 
 

 

16 hours ago, daveje said:

The last people to get the vaccine will be the people who tend to go to festivals.

The last events to re-open will be international festivals.

While that's true, you have to remember that giving the vaccine to only half the population will also affect the dynamic of the pandemic.

First thing, all these talks about herd immunity are probably not possible to achieve naturally, but if you give the vaccine to half the population, it might be more realistic, or at least will slow the disease

Second thing, even now we know that Corona is not lethal for most of the population, many of the things we do now are in order to protect the elderly and the people with risk factors. If you immune them, that's a whole new story, it might lower the killing rate to as low as the flu, not sure that for that you'll still keep the entire economy shut down

So vaccine changes everything, even before being 100% deployed.

 

Having said that - I'm not optimistic. I doubt we'll have June, I hope we'll have August, but the realistic hope is that Pavement will still be on the lineup at 2022

   

[xxialac]

IMO we can't talk about vaccines as if it's the only tool in the toolbox.

Onsite rapid testing could have an even greater beneficial effect.

Not clear whether this will be in time for June but a combination of good testing and some level of innoculation among the vulnerable will be deemed enough to reopen mass outdoor events. We don't need perfection. 

If football can go ahead at some point on this basis - and that's big business with a lot of pressure on politicians to reopen it - then so can outdoor festivals.

[mln]

29 minutes ago, xxialac said:

 

If football can go ahead at some point on this basis - and that's big business with a lot of pressure on politicians to reopen it - then so can outdoor festivals.

And we have to remember there's rescheduled EURO 2020 taking place in 2021. Knowing how much UEFA loves money, it's hard to imagine they will easily give up on having full capacities.

There's also 2020 Olympics in Tokyo.

[JedTheHumanoid]

2 minutes ago, mln said:

And we have to remember there's rescheduled EURO 2020 taking place in 2021. Knowing how much UEFA loves money, it's hard to imagine they will easily give up on having full capacities.

There's also 2020 Olympics in Tokyo.

The Euro is a different thing- we already saw a working example of how to perfectly manage a big sports event under Corona - the NBA bubble. I hope UEFA are starting to do their homework and learn how they did it there

 

[johnybegood]

The situation in Spain is getting worse and worse each day. One month ago there was no restrictions, but now Navarra is in total lockdown, people from Madrid cannot leave the city, restaurants in Granada are closed at night and its University is closed, Barcelona has no commercial activity after 10pm, Melilla is going to close the airport and get totally isolated...

38.000 new infected people in the last weekend and hospitals getting full of covid people again.

It's hard to predict what will happen in the next year, but here the situation is not good now. Sometimes I want to be positive and think that I will get drunk with my friends in Christmas time, or go to a couple of festivals next year, but then reality wakes me up from my dream. 

 

 

 

[Quadrophobia]

Look, I hate to be the buzzkiller, but you are widely overestimating the efficacy of vaccines and rapid testing.

The vaccine will slow down the spread, which is nice, but to effectively curb the spread, one person must not infect more than one other person, which means that 2/3 of attendees would have to be vaccinated by the start of the festival. Not happening.

Rapid Tests could be an auxiliary measure but: 1. They are expensive 2. They are scarce 3. They had to be carried out every day for every attendee, bc people may have caught the virus in the meantime 4. They cannot detect an infection that has just happened 5. They are faulty. Rapid Testing would be an immense cost and logistics burden and it is highly unlikely a festival that just lost tons of money can stem that.

Lastly and most importantly: Organizers have to be absolutely sure by early January that all these measures will be accessible and effective. That is just more than two months from now. To plan a festival with worldwide acts and audience under such conditions is close to impossible.
 

So curb your enthusiasm.

Edited October 20, 2020 by Quadrophobia

[Andrej]

Euro 2021 will happen, and they dont depend that much on ticket sales / people in the stadium. TV rights / advertising money is the biggest thing, and they can do it with 0 people in the stadium (like NBA, or most of baseball etc), or they can do it with limited capacity, like 20% of stadiums full (like currently most of American football season).

Most of that doesnt apply for music festivals, as they can only operate with 100% full capacity. And I really cant see how can anyone fill their fields, stadiums, arenas etc up to 100% capacity next June.

 

 

[xxialac]

16 minutes ago, Andrej said:

Euro 2021 will happen, and they dont depend that much on ticket sales / people in the stadium. TV rights / advertising money is the biggest thing, and they can do it with 0 people in the stadium (like NBA, or most of baseball etc), or they can do it with limited capacity, like 20% of stadiums full (like currently most of American football season).

Most of that doesnt apply for music festivals, as they can only operate with 100% full capacity. And I really cant see how can anyone fill their fields, stadiums, arenas etc up to 100% capacity next June.

 

 

The profits from the Euro tournament goes to the UEFA member associations.

Without ticket sales, the profit from the last tournament would have been cut by 50% 

Therefore the UEFA member associations will want bums on seats.

[MagneticField85]

49 minutes ago, xxialac said:

The profits from the Euro tournament goes to the UEFA member associations.

Without ticket sales, the profit from the last tournament would have been cut by 50% 

Therefore the UEFA member associations will want bums on seats.

Do you have a source for that %? No doubt ticket sales are important (traditionally, in club football they represent 25-33% of total revenue), but half of the income sounds like an overstatement.

[MagneticField85]

1 hour ago, Quadrophobia said:

Look, I hate to be the buzzkiller, but you are widely overestimating the efficacy of vaccines and rapid testing.

The vaccine will slow down the spread, which is nice, but to effectively curb the spread, one person must not infect more than one other person, which means that 2/3 of attendees would have to be vaccinated by the start of the festival. Not happening.

Rapid Tests could be an auxiliary measure but: 1. They are expensive 2. They are scarce 3. They had to be carried out every day for every attendee, bc people may have caught the virus in the meantime 4. They cannot detect an infection that has just happened 5. They are faulty. Rapid Testing would be an immense cost and logistics burden and it is highly unlikely a festival that just lost tons of money can stem that.

Lastly and most importantly: Organizers have to be absolutely sure by early January that all these measures will be accessible and effective. That is just more than two months from now. To plan a festival with worldwide acts and audience under such conditions is close to impossible.
 

So curb your enthusiasm.

This sounds really reasonable, except the timings. I believe organizers might be able to wait around t-minus 90 days before calling off a festival. 

 

[xxialac]

41 minutes ago, MagneticField85 said:

Do you have a source for that %? No doubt ticket sales are important (traditionally, in club football they represent 25-33% of total revenue), but half of the income sounds like an overstatement.

I didn't write half of the income, I wrote half of the profit.

And the UEFA members are only interested in the profit as that's what they take (the numbers are in the public domain incidentally).

[Festcrazy]

4 hours ago, Andrej said:

Euro 2021 will happen, and they dont depend that much on ticket sales / people in the stadium. TV rights / advertising money is the biggest thing, and they can do it with 0 people in the stadium (like NBA, or most of baseball etc), or they can do it with limited capacity, like 20% of stadiums full (like currently most of American football season).

Most of that doesnt apply for music festivals, as they can only operate with 100% full capacity. And I really cant see how can anyone fill their fields, stadiums, arenas etc up to 100% capacity next June.

 

Agree, festivals and Euro aren't the same thing, they can be hold even without public

 

[daveje]

2 hours ago, MagneticField85 said:

This sounds really reasonable, except the timings. I believe organizers might be able to wait around t-minus 90 days before calling off a festival. 

 

It's not just their decision. Primavera is just one festival for these bands, especially the headliners, and they have other dates organised in a tour. If enough bands decide their tours can't happen, the festival can't happen, regardless of what the organisers might want.

[MagneticField85]

5 hours ago, xxialac said:

I didn't write half of the income, I wrote half of the profit.

And the UEFA members are only interested in the profit as that's what they take (the numbers are in the public domain incidentally).

Thanks for claryfing, numbers fit now

[whos3000]

June 2021: not happening 

Late August 2021: it would be a miracle but I can still see this happening. 

Cancellation: most likely. 

So what we are left speculating on is what will happen with our tickets, this lineup (will it be repurposed the following year again?) and ultimately the festival itself? Can it survive another cancellation? Will they start again the following year, but with smaller acts? 

[burnleynotbarcelona]

If I was putting money on it I think they’ll try for a postponement until late Aug / early Sept. There’s a chance on that timescale, really don’t see early June happening at all. 

[Andrej]

If there is no summer 2021 festival season, I really doubt most of the festivals can survive. Have in mind that in that scenario, most of them made income summer 2019, and will be without income until summer 2022 !? Thats really really hard. The ones that do survive, I also dont think they will repeat line ups from 2020. That would be absurd, time hasnt stopped, new music gets released, so its OK to postpone from one year, 2020 to 2021, but then again to postpone everything identical to 2022 - dont think so. Most of them will want to start fresh, with new line ups. But this is all just pure speculating. 

 

[riseupandkill]

i heard a rumour even glastonbury might struggle if 2021 doesn't happen for it.