When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

[BobWillis]

3 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Just to add a different take here - a lot of us aren't going back to normal because of the fact that positive cases are high and we know it COULD get back to where it was. Obviously we might get lucky and hospitalisations not rise in line, but we don't know for sure and need evidence of that.

When there are 500-900 new cases every day it's a quick journey back to April numbers if people aren't careful. And some of us don't want to be part of the spread, not just for ourselves not wanting to catch it and risk long term effects, but others too. 

I'm really concerned about what this PHE counting information is doing to the general mindset of the country - people predictably going with a "ah it's not so bad then", and forgetting that excess deaths is the real number - just because a few PHE deaths may have been attributed wrong, the huge number of excess deaths vs previous years actually has me leaning towards an overall under counting throughout the worst months. 

And I know excess deaths are down now - but I'd like to see them stay low throughout winter before deciding things are ok

I don’t think people truly appreciate just how many infections there were at the peak of the virus compared to now. 
 

If our testing capacity had been big enough they would have been reporting 5 figures per day at the peak. 
 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

I don’t think people truly appreciate just how many infections there were at the peak of the virus compared to now. 
 

If our testing capacity had been big enough they would have been reporting 5 figures per day at the peak. 
 

how does early March compare to now?

[efcfanwirral]

25 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

I don’t think people truly appreciate just how many infections there were at the peak of the virus compared to now. 
 

If our testing capacity had been big enough they would have been reporting 5 figures per day at the peak. 
 

I do agree with that and I'm completely open to the virus burning out, mass immunity we dont know about etc but equally today's confirmed 800 could be October's 8000 if that is how things are going to go. When people move everything indoors and schools reopen we'll get a good idea of which direction we're going in

Edited August 5, 2020 by efcfanwirral

[Havors]

1 hour ago, Ryan1984 said:

By all accounts, except the government’s...

Haha indeed!! This government are literally straight out of a monty phython sketch... it would be hilarious if it wasn't so fucking frustrating and dangerous to peoples lives/livelihoods 

[steviewevie]

[vintagelaureate]

Zanzibar in Liverpool has had to close

 

[crocodiles]

25 minutes ago, vintagelaureate said:

Zanzibar in Liverpool has had to close

 

That's sad nice venue last time I was there was to see sadly departed colin vearncombe . Remember him saying won't walk off for encore as I'll have to walk through u all then back so I'll just avoid pretence and stay on .

 

[vintagelaureate]

6 minutes ago, crocodiles said:

That's sad nice venue last time I was there was to see sadly departed colin vearncombe . Remember him saying won't walk off for encore as I'll have to walk through u all then back so I'll just avoid pretence and stay on .

 

They were always willing to give smaller bands a shot, I've seen loads of mates band in there over the last twenty years - it's been open thirty - it's a shame.

 

[Copperface]

37 minutes ago, vintagelaureate said:

Zanzibar in Liverpool has had to close

 

".....the probability of remaining closed for a year". At least they faced up to the likely reality.

That will most likely apply to large festivals as well.........control measures are mitigating the virus spread at the moment. If they are lifted or relaxed the spread seems to rise accordingly and that will not be permitted.

A vaccine, or range of vaccines and other drugs is the only realistic hope for the next year or two.

[Ozanne]

It’s not ‘most likely’ to be the same for large festivals. It’s possible but I’d say they are as likely to go ahead next year as they aren’t. There will more gains made even before the end of 2020, I’d even say they more likely to go ahead than not. 

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s not ‘most likely’ to be the same for large festivals. It’s possible but I’d say they are as likely to go ahead next year as they aren’t. There will more gains made even before the end of 2020, I’d even say they more likely to go ahead than not. 

yeah, I'd agree with this....and probably won't really know until at earliest beginning of next year.

[Copperface]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s not ‘most likely’ to be the same for large festivals. It’s possible but I’d say they are as likely to go ahead next year as they aren’t. There will more gains made even before the end of 2020, I’d even say they more likely to go ahead than not. 

Think you might have missed the last bit of my post.

Hopefully yes, there will be 'more gains' in the future. When you say 'gains' I presume you mean a medical breakthrough?

But until then, and currently in the absence of a vaccine, or combination of vaccines, and other treatments, control and mitigation measures will have to remain in place, loosening and tightening as and where needed. 

We currently don't have such vaccines, and estimates and guesses vary wildly. 

Do you honestly think 200k will be gathering in a field before such treatments are found and implemented?

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Think you might have missed the last bit of my post.

Hopefully yes, there will be 'more gains' in the future. When you say 'gains' I presume you mean a medical breakthrough?

But until then, and currently in the absence of a vaccine, or combination of vaccines, and other treatments, control and mitigation measures will have to remain in place, loosening and tightening as and where needed. 

We currently don't have such vaccines, and estimates and guesses vary wildly. 

Do you honestly think 200k will be gathering in a field before such treatments are found and implemented?

so, I guess the real question is will these treatments be out and widely distributed by next spring/summer...and I reckon that is looking 50/50 at this stage.

[squirrelarmy]

I’m trying to remember earlier this year. Did Cheltenham Festival happen before the decision was made to cancel Glastonbury? 
 

You could put money on restrictions being lowered in time for next years horse racing festival season. The government can’t get away with banning some large gatherings and not others. As long there is enough time to build the festival between Cheltenham and June the festival will go ahead. 

[vintagelaureate]

5 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

I’m trying to remember earlier this year. Did Cheltenham Festival happen before the decision was made to cancel Glastonbury? 
 

Yes, it was a week or so before the lockdown announcement.

[FestivalJamie]

Cheltenham can always happen behind closed doors with online betting.

The government seem much more on it than they were 4 months ago, I don’t think they want to take anymore risks as it will look awful on them messing up for a second time. It’s a vaccine or major treatment and we can have mass gatherings again, otherwise we are living like we are at the moment on edge until we find that.

Edited August 5, 2020 by FestivalJamie

[efcfanwirral]

I went down a bit of a Daily Mail comment rabbit hole today because of their crusade to bully the country back into the office. It appears that a very large amount of the country genuinely does not know the difference between working from home and furlough. It's actually scary how such a lack of intelligence and basic knowledge is so widespread - every article on home working has LOTS of comments about scroungers, "get back to work", "future labour voters on benefits" etc with loads of upvotes. Many of the negative commenters that do at least get the difference seem convinced that home working will just lead to bosses realising they can outsource everyone's jobs to India because they can be done from anywhere (as if that hasn't always been an option if they want to).

The extremely low level of intelligence is terrifying   

[squirrelarmy]

10 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Cheltenham can always happen behind closed doors with online betting.

 

A lot more income than betting money happens on site. The hospitality packages are a huge earners for the directors of the race course as well as food and beverage sales for 200k+ people. 
 

 

[FestivalJamie]

1 minute ago, squirrelarmy said:

A lot more income than betting money happens on site. The hospitality packages are a huge earners for the directors of the race course as well as food and beverage sales for 200k+ people. 
 

 

Ok well I’m just saying I don’t see the government allowing it to happen if there isn’t a medical breakthrough. The risks are just too high, in terms of politically and in terms of the health of the population.

[squirrelarmy]

Just now, FestivalJamie said:

Ok well I’m just saying I don’t see the government allowing it to happen if there isn’t a medical breakthrough. The risks are just too high, in terms of politically and in terms of the health of the population.

The government’s priority has always been to line the pockets of their friends. Some of who own Cheltenham racecourse 

[steviewevie]

This school reopening question is going to get more and more intense.

My kid is just about to start year 11 which is GCSE year...and at moment plan is for GCSEs to be happening next year with little change to the syllabus...which just makes it even more unfair to those who couldn't get as much done over the last few months, and also to those likely to miss out due to schools closing due to local outbreaks.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/05/covid-19-may-spread-more-easily-schools-than-thought-report-warns

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

This school reopening question is going to get more and more intense.

My kid is just about to start year 11 which is GCSE year...and at moment plan is for GCSEs to be happening next year with little change to the syllabus...which just makes it even more unfair to those who couldn't get as much done over the last few months, and also to those likely to miss out due to schools closing due to local outbreaks.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/05/covid-19-may-spread-more-easily-schools-than-thought-report-warns

They really need some kind of backup plan for when schools close - maybe have a requirement for the lesson plans to be available online, just in case it ends up not being taught in the classroom, or even a remote teaching plan and infrastructure in place that can be switched to at a moments notice. I mean for GCSE/A Level students it could be as simple as Zoom and a resource of articles to read (vetted by the teacher for accuracy of course). Not ideal but better than nothing? 

[MrZigster]

5 hours ago, Havors said:

 

I think they ended up in full lockdown because all the countries did it... we literally just waited and copied other european countries... hence it being too late by all accounts. 

Didn't France make us do it?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-macron/frances-macron-threatened-uk-entry-ban-without-more-stringent-measures-report-idUKKBN218131

Also found it telling that The FA made the call before the government did.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

They really need some kind of backup plan for when schools close - maybe have a requirement for the lesson plans to be available online, just in case it ends up not being taught in the classroom, or even a remote teaching plan and infrastructure in place that can be switched to at a moments notice. I mean for GCSE/A Level students it could be as simple as Zoom and a resource of articles to read (vetted by the teacher for accuracy of course). Not ideal but better than nothing? 

I'm sure they will have something like that...but some kids, often from poorer backgrounds, do not have computers or have chaotic home lives or basically lack self discipline to do the work from home. It just gives further advantage to certain sections of society.

This virus is a feckin nightmare.