When will this shit end?

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, phimill said:

So tomorrow we will have jabbed 50% of the population.

With this in mind, do we expect to have reached "herd immunity" levels in 3weeks once the vaccine is "up and running" in their systems?

Depends how many people have prior immunity I imagine. Also a few unknowns about what levels we need for herd immunity. 

[zahidf]

9 minutes ago, phimill said:

So tomorrow we will have jabbed 50% of the population.

With this in mind, do we expect to have reached "herd immunity" levels in 3weeks once the vaccine is "up and running" in their systems?

Well today technically, reported tomorrow!

[phimill]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Depends how many people have prior immunity I imagine. Also a few unknowns about what levels we need for herd immunity. 

Using some quick googling - iut look like 60-70% for herd immunity:

Based on the anti-body study in January we had 15.3% of the pop with anti-bodies -> pre vaccination ramp up.

So we are likely to be close to 60% based on 50% population through vaccination.

Plus the additional people being vaccinated in the next three week (0.58% average per day) is another 12%.

We could be on over 70% with potential for anti-bodies by the next "unlock"

Its all looking good!

 

[Ozanne]

16 minutes ago, phimill said:

So tomorrow we will have jabbed 50% of the population.

With this in mind, do we expect to have reached "herd immunity" levels in 3weeks once the vaccine is "up and running" in their systems?

We’ve already given vaccines to over 50% of the adult population. Given we aren’t vaccinating children I think it’s a fair thing to shout about!

[fraybentos1]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

We’ve already given vaccines to over 50% of the adult population. Given we aren’t vaccinating children I think it’s a fair thing to shout about!

It's total population that matters for herd immunity though surely. Just cause kids can't get vaccinated doesn't mean they can't spread it.

[zahidf]

 

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Plus the indian one too surely.

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

We just have to wait and see now for the Indian variant. It’s probably too early to tell either way but I hold out faith the vaccines will be effective against that one to. The authorities need to take them time investigating this variant just to be safe. 

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

yes, but how effective? And what vaccines?

[steviewevie]

 

[zahidf]

'This has been shared by Public Health England. All pregnant women would be offered the Pfizer or Moderna jab based on their age and clinical risk group after real-world data from the US showed about 90,000 pregnant women had been vaccinated without any safety concerns, the UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) said last Friday.'

[Crazyfool01]

Ok so what happens when we hit herd immunity ? ... virus case numbers plummet ? Is it as simple as that ? Presumably still small pockets of outbreaks in unvaccinated populations ? 

[Copperface]

2 hours ago, zahidf said:

Is that a website or in person?

Website. Haven't got the details but it appears to be a locally run arrangement withe the GP group practice hub so can't say if this is being done nationally or not.

[Ozanne]

5 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Ok so what happens when we hit herd immunity ? ... virus case numbers plummet ? Is it as simple as that ? Presumably still small pockets of outbreaks in unvaccinated populations ? 

I think the cases numbers would fall but still be at a certain level for a while but we should see less hospitalisation and less dying. As you say they’ll still be outbreaks but it’ll be on a lower scale. 

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Website. Haven't got the details but it appears to be a locally run arrangement withe the GP group practice hub so can't say if this is being done nationally or not.

OH ok. What area is that? just  forward for my unvaccinated mates!

[fraybentos1]

9 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Ok so what happens when we hit herd immunity ? ... virus case numbers plummet ? Is it as simple as that ? Presumably still small pockets of outbreaks in unvaccinated populations ? 

I think it just means you could open up but R would remain below 1. Small outbreaks are always possible but as time goes on the virus would hit more and more of a wall and not be able to spread.

[Copperface]

Just now, zahidf said:

OH ok. What area is that? just  forward for my unvaccinated mates!

North East. Might be worth contacting their GP or GP hub to see if they are running anything like it.

[JoeyT]

11 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Ok so what happens when we hit herd immunity ? ... virus case numbers plummet ? Is it as simple as that ? Presumably still small pockets of outbreaks in unvaccinated populations ? 

This thread implodes on itself.

and beers everywhere, lots of beers.

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, Copperface said:

North East. Might be worth contacting their GP or GP hub to see if they are running anything like it.

Cool thanks 

[JoeyT]

Remember the Bristol variant? Well that shit got erased.

 

[zahidf]

 

[Ozanne]

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Maybe, but the biggest producer of vaccines in the world is... India.  That has to be their way out though.

I'll tell you what, I'm not virtue signalling when I say that I'm really not concerned that the Serum Institute stopped sending us extra AZ to top us up.  They really do need it more than us, it's not an abstract concept now when you look at the graphs.

I'm generally a fan of the UK getting its own house in order before we start helping other counties (although we definitely should in the mid to longer term) but I have no choice but to agree here. I don't think our roadmap will be slowed by the vaccine rollout at this point so we should let India fire through their vulnerable population rapidly. They are effectively in the position we were a few months back.

 

Good news is that the Oxford/AZ which is the main vaccine used over there seems to work against this variant.

[JoeyT]

8 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

No problem with that. It's outside, nothing to see here IMO.

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

No problem with that. It's outside, nothing to see here IMO.

its breaking the Rule of Six though.... 

 

I think its pointless but it is against his rules!