When will this shit end?

[Copperface]

"Boris Johnson says: "With a favourable wind we should be able to inoculate the vast majority of the people who need the most protection by Easter."  Prof Whitty says the change for society will come step by step. "The virus will not disappear - it will become less and less risky for society in stages," he says."

Totally different from 'everyone done by Easter' or even my other favourite 'all the over 50s done by Easter'.

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

From WEF, back in March,

"As Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the US, said: “A vaccine that you make and start testing in a year is not a vaccine that’s deployable. [It will take] a year to a year and a half, no matter how fast you go.”

Vaccines must be rigorously tested to ensure they not only work but will not cause other dangerous side-effects.

The trial methodology consists of three phases:

1. Testing on a small number of healthy adults

2. Testing on a larger number of adults in an area where the disease has spread

3.Testing on thousands of people in an area where the disease has spread

Each of these steps can last between six and eight months, but even if the vaccine candidate gets that far – many are abandoned or fail before then – they must then be studied by regulators before approval is granted."

 

What happened to "most vaccine candidates never make it", and "we might never get one" it all sounds a bit too good to be true.

All of the steps have been followed as normal, just all the faffing about in between steps has been shortened (endless cycles of presenting data to funders to get someone to pay for the next one!). The prevalence of the disease has also made it much easier to test (lots more people getting infected). And finally, these are new approaches, we always suspected they would work, but didn’t really know til now. What you have witnessed in real time is the advent of an entirely new way of dealing with infectious diseases. In essence, this is as big as discovering antibiotics (though hopefully we’ve learned from our misuse of those!)...

[mattiloy]

9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Have you ever heard of the horseshoe theory?

Yeah total poppycock. Its just a convenient bit of nonsense for centrists to try to write off the left and any move by the left to affect lasting progressive change by calling them loons and stalinists.

It falls down especially today because the greatest authoritarians and those who believe least in democracy are presently those in the centre.

Edited November 23, 2020 by mattiloy

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Copperface said:

"Boris Johnson says: "With a favourable wind we should be able to inoculate the vast majority of the people who need the most protection by Easter."  Prof Whitty says the change for society will come step by step. "The virus will not disappear - it will become less and less risky for society in stages," he says."

Totally different from 'everyone done by Easter' or even my other favourite 'all the over 50s done by Easter'.

Whitty can say what he wants but once deaths go down the pressure to reopen will be overwhelming 

[Guest]

Johnson said himself there won't be any normality till Easter, we are in this till then. Whilst we have a good possibility of a vaccine it does need to be said that this will go on for a bit longer yet.

[jparx]

Just now, zahidf said:

Whitty can say what he wants but once deaths go down the pressure to reopen will be overwhelming 

Yep that’s the key. Whether it’s right or not, once we’re a couple months into the vaccination the willingness to follow the science will disappear quickly both from the government and the majority of the public. From a pure public health, science based angle, Glastonbury is in doubt still. From a political angle, it’s all steam ahead. And politics ultimate dictates the course of action.

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Whitty can say what he wants but once deaths go down the pressure to reopen will be overwhelming 

Even if you take Whitty's statement out, Johnson is still saying that only the most acutely vulnerable people will be done by Easter. Using that timescale, leaves a shedload more to do over many months.

[incident]

15 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

What happened to "most vaccine candidates never make it", and "we might never get one" it all sounds a bit too good to be true.

To be fair, there's been literally hundreds, maybe thousands of attempts to create vaccine candidates, and most haven't or won't make it. Pfizer for example originally had several candidates under simultaneous development, and jettisoned the others because they didn't appear as promising.

When all the cameras are trained on the finish line, it shouldn't be too much of a surprise that nobody is paying attention to the bloke who's given up halfway through the marathon and nipped into McDonalds.

Edited November 23, 2020 by incident

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Even if you take Whitty's statement out, Johnson is still saying that only the most acutely vulnerable people will be done by Easter. Using that timescale, leaves a shedload more to do over many months.

Depends on what that statement means.  Could mean over 50s! Anyway bojo probably hasn't read the papers on it

[tigger123]

1 minute ago, Copperface said:

Even if you take Whitty's statement out, Johnson is still saying that only the most acutely vulnerable people will be done by Easter. Using that timescale, leaves a shedload more to do over many months.

We innoculate those who need the flu vaccine in within 2 1/2 months, that’s with a normal service. Given the pressure on this to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible, I think we will be vaccinating the vulnerable a lot faster than we do with the normal flu jab service, given they will be setting up mass vaccination centres, encouraging and training other healthcare workers to be able to administer vaccines. The longer it takes to vaccinate the more people will die, the government will be well aware of this so will do everything they can to make this as efficient as possible and thankfully it will be the NHS in charge of this rather than the government, so I have every faith in them being able to deliver this speedily

[Copperface]

7 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Johnson said himself there won't be any normality till Easter, we are in this till then. Whilst we have a good possibility of a vaccine it does need to be said that this will go on for a bit longer yet.

What he said was "With hard work and good luck there will be "improvements" by Easter next year, Boris Johnson says. Basic disciplines must be maintained, he adds."

Different from 'normality at Easter'.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Copperface said:

What he said was "With hard work and good luck there will be "improvements" by Easter next year, Boris Johnson says. Basic disciplines must be maintained, he adds."

Different from 'normality at Easter'.

Indeed, I was kind of getting at that and that we still have some hard months ahead.

[tigger123]

3 minutes ago, Copperface said:

What he said was "With hard work and good luck there will be "improvements" by Easter next year, Boris Johnson says. Basic disciplines must be maintained, he adds."

Different from 'normality at Easter'.

No ones suggesting everything will get lifted immediately at Easter are they? What we had in the summer still wasn’t normal but we still had most of our freedoms, aside from gatherings of over 30 people. We will probably go to what we had in summer around Easter time, especially as the weather will be improving, with complete normality following in the weeks following that 

Edited November 23, 2020 by tigger123

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, Copperface said:

What he said was "With hard work and good luck there will be "improvements" by Easter next year, Boris Johnson says. Basic disciplines must be maintained, he adds."

Different from 'normality at Easter'.

Hes been under promising on this compared to Hancock and some of the SAGE Experts. Could be a few reasons for this.

[Copperface]

11 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Whitty can say what he wants but once deaths go down the pressure to reopen will be overwhelming 

At the risk of repeating myself, you can open up the country and the economy in stages which will satisfy 95% of the population . 

Large scale festivals going to be last thing they sanction. Most of the country (or the Tory demographic) could not give two hoots about festivals.

[Chapple12345]

 

[Ryan1984]

How would the rollout actually happen once the vulnerable and oldies are done? Town by town? Alphabetical order? Birthdays like in Contagion?

[jparx]

1 minute ago, Copperface said:

At the risk of repeating myself, you can open up the country and the economy in stages which will satisfy 95% of the population . 

Large scale festivals going to be last thing they sanction. Most of the country (or the Tory demographic) could not give two hoots about festivals.

Eh I dunno. Don’t care about Glastonbury probably, but plenty of other things that draw very large crowds (Cheltenham, Wimbledon, Open etc). Glastonbury is part of a larger picture, and the Tories certainly care about it.

[tigger123]

3 minutes ago, Copperface said:

At the risk of repeating myself, you can open up the country and the economy in stages which will satisfy 95% of the population . 

Large scale festivals going to be last thing they sanction. Most of the country (or the Tory demographic) could not give two hoots about festivals.

Don’t forget about the Cheltenham festival!! The tories will want to do everything to make that go ahead, if that goes ahead normally, then so can music festivals

[efcfanwirral]

32 minutes ago, Gilgamesh69 said:

Equating the far right to the far left is such a cringe take lmao. Damn those leftist extremists and their belief in... *checks notes*... equality!

The far left are just as susceptible to authoritarianism - plenty of the socialist crowd would happily have a society like that to enforce that equality. 

I probably agree with that to some extent for climate change but not for this 

 

[efcfanwirral]

12 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Don’t forget about the Cheltenham festival!! The tories will want to do everything to make that go ahead, if that goes ahead normally, then so can music festivals

They can say its more sanitary (despite more being indoors with the added bars and hotel stays ) and most of the country will believe it 

Edited November 23, 2020 by efcfanwirral

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, jparx said:

Eh I dunno. Don’t care about Glastonbury probably, but plenty of other things that draw very large crowds (Cheltenham, Wimbledon, Open etc). Glastonbury is part of a larger picture, and the Tories certainly care about it.

Cheltenham is in March, so unlikely anyway. Wimbledon can easily be done with reduced capacity. The Open is in July, and again can have reduced controlled capacity. At none of those events is there crowded camping. 

[Leyrulion]

9 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

How would the rollout actually happen once the vulnerable and oldies are done? Town by town? Alphabetical order? Birthdays like in Contagion?

I'd assumed by supply to gp surgeries. Each surgery works their way down the list of patients in order of vulnerability by either giving them the jab or sending them to a bigger center.

Edited November 23, 2020 by Leyrulion

[topmarksbri]

 

26 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Yeah total poppycock. Its just a convenient bit of nonsense for centrists to try to write off the left and any move by the left to affect lasting progressive change by calling them loons and stalinists.

It falls down especially today because the greatest authoritarians and those who believe least in democracy are presently those in the centre.

Bolsanaro, Xi, Kim, Trump, Modi, Putin all centrists who knew

[efcfanwirral]