Are Tories welcome at Glastonbury

[sime]

2 hours ago, Badlands said:

I don't believe this at all. Everyone knows it was a campaign based on lies, yet opinion polls aren't really that far off what they were when the referendum took place.

If they did the vote again tomorrow, I reckon the outcome would be the same. And that's why I'd rather not have a 2nd referendum.

Current official polling (taken from various polls) has 54% remain and 46% leave.

[sime]

1 hour ago, HalfAnIdiot said:

Which companies are planning to leave please?

https://readyforbrexit.co.uk/the-list-of-companies-setting-up-hqs-or-bases-on-mainland-europe-ahead-of-brexit-grows/

[John the Moth]

1 hour ago, Homer said:

 

I cannot emphasise enough that my workmates (that I like) aren’t racist - I misread the post that I quoted from!

 

Yeah, it’s weird isn’t it? My wife is a kiwi and she doesn’t get any bother at all. I guess she is broadly culturally similar to us, and doesn’t have an ‘unfamiliar’ accent (just a very funny one).

 

is your wife good to stay do you know and did she vote?

Bloody kiwis!!!

*My wife is from Auckland

[Badlands]

5 minutes ago, sime said:

Current official polling (taken from various polls) has 54% remain and 46% leave.

Pretty wooly that, especially as it doesn't take into account undecided.  Remain have been ahead by an average of 4 points this year from the reports I've read. That still doesn't give me confidence that any further referendum would provide the same output.

Where would the country go if we vote Leave twice in a row?  Fuck that.

[HalfAnIdiot]

7 minutes ago, sime said:

https://readyforbrexit.co.uk/the-list-of-companies-setting-up-hqs-or-bases-on-mainland-europe-ahead-of-brexit-grows/

I can understand the need for companies to have a HQ in the EU, it doesn't follow they will close their UK HQ. Some will though. However HQs are staffed by a relatively small number of people. The job losses will be small in a high employment economy. The threat is the slow erosion of UK influence on the world economy, this is concerning but not a certainty. It will need to be countered.

I'm not aware of any large scale move being planned that would see hundreds or thousands loose their jobs. 

[Homer]

25 minutes ago, HalfAnIdiot said:

But Nissan aren't planning to leave. They are issuing warnings of trading being more difficult hnder a hard Brexit but there is absolutely no evidence they are planning to leave under a hard, soft or 'semi" Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/04/nissan-becomes-latest-manufacturer-to-warn-against-hard-brexit

We can't complain that the leave campaign were lying and then not stick to the facts.

 

Eh? From the article you posted!

 

”Colin Lawther, a Nissan executive, told the House of Commons international trade committee in February 2017 that tariffs would add £500m to the plant’s costs, which it might not survive, and that long delays of parts at borders would be a disaster for the operation.

 

...

 

hinichi Iida, minister for public diplomacy and media at the Japanese embassy in London, also told the Guardian that Japanese companies, of which there are 1,000 in Britain employing 160,000 people directly, are responding to Brexit by taking “risk hedge measures”.

Japanese financial institutions have already submitted applications to set up bases in European financial authorities such as Frankfurt and Amsterdam, he said, and some manufacturing companies are holding off future investment plans.

“If Japanese companies encounter problems in the UK I would not be surprised if they shift their balance towards their business operations on the continent,” Iida said.”

 

[HalfAnIdiot]

There are some strong views in this thread (which I have to save is all the more enjoyable for being conducted in a civil manner).

Have any of you engaged your MP to make your views known and lobby for your favoured outcome?

 

[Homer]

Just now, HalfAnIdiot said:

There are some strong views in this thread (which I have to save is all the more enjoyable for being conducted in a civil manner).

Have any of you engaged your MP to make your views known and lobby for your favoured outcome?

 

Nope. Yeah, I like this forum - everyone is very nice!

[HalfAnIdiot]

2 minutes ago, Homer said:

Eh? From the article you posted!

 

”Colin Lawther, a Nissan executive, told the House of Commons international trade committee in February 2017 that tariffs would add £500m to the plant’s costs, which it might not survive, and that long delays of parts at borders would be a disaster for the operation.

 

...

 

hinichi Iida, minister for public diplomacy and media at the Japanese embassy in London, also told the Guardian that Japanese companies, of which there are 1,000 in Britain employing 160,000 people directly, are responding to Brexit by taking “risk hedge measures”.

Japanese financial institutions have already submitted applications to set up bases in European financial authorities such as Frankfurt and Amsterdam, he said, and some manufacturing companies are holding off future investment plans.

“If Japanese companies encounter problems in the UK I would not be surprised if they shift their balance towards their business operations on the continent,” Iida said.”

 

My point is that is not planning to leave. Planning is a whole different kettle of fis, and far more involved, that putting a shot across the bows of the govt to spur them in to sorting their sh#t out and negotiate like grown ups.

[glastolover19]

4 minutes ago, Homer said:

Nope. Yeah, I like this forum - everyone is very nice!

Group hug?

[glastolover19]

6 minutes ago, HalfAnIdiot said:

There are some strong views in this thread (which I have to save is all the more enjoyable for being conducted in a civil manner).

Have any of you engaged your MP to make your views known and lobby for your favoured outcome?

 

I like to think if we were Sat in a boozer or round the camp fire we would still have this conversation but it would probably have more laughter. I don't think you should ever judge anyone by these forums,many things are mis read of misconstrued and what's said he is only one side of their personality. As far as I'm concerned we are all opinionated but then again we are all human

[HalfAnIdiot]

Ce

28 minutes ago, glastolover19 said:

Group hug?

Yup. Now I'm off to watch Dr Who on iPlayer :-)

Edited October 14, 2018 by HalfAnIdiot

[Blisterpack]

Just now, HalfAnIdiot said:

My point is that is not planning to leave. Planning is a whole different kettle of fis, and far more involved, that putting a shot across the bows of the govt to spur them in to sorting their sh#t out and negotiate like grown ups.

It’s difficult to plan for anything in public when the Government is all over the place though. May could pop along to Keir Starmer and talk through his ideas for remaining in the Customs Union. If she went with it, then Northern Ireland has no major stumbling blocks, manufacturers in particular would have guaranteed continuity and we could, in effect, leave the European Union. It won’t be a nice experience and there would be other major problems to resolve - not least the impact of freedom of movement restrictions on particular sectors such as agriculture and social care, but it would be a workable start. Problem is, hard liners will have her head and Boris at no 10 if they even thought she might do it. On the plus side for her, she might get Labour onside enough to get it through. Unfortunately the single biggest thing any government has had to facilitate since the war has become a scrap in the Tory party. 

[Homer]

1 hour ago, HalfAnIdiot said:

My point is that is not planning to leave. Planning is a whole different kettle of fis, and far more involved, that putting a shot across the bows of the govt to spur them in to sorting their sh#t out and negotiate like grown ups.

 

Right, well if I've misinterpreted it that wasn't my intention - but I did say they were 'making noises' or words to that effect.

 

I don't live in these areas or in that industry, so maybe just leave them to it. They voted leave anyway.

 

I wish May would just quit as caretaker idiot and hand over to one of the ERG lot and say 'go on then'. The reason that lot snipe from the sidelines and don't offer solutions is because they don't have them and they certainly don't have the numbers to pass a hard Brexit. Would love to watch them try.

[Homer]

1 hour ago, glastolover19 said:

Group hug?

Would upvote you but I have run out!

[Homer]

1 hour ago, Blisterpack said:

It’s difficult to plan for anything in public when the Government is all over the place though. May could pop along to Keir Starmer and talk through his ideas for remaining in the Customs Union. If she went with it, then Northern Ireland has no major stumbling blocks, manufacturers in particular would have guaranteed continuity and we could, in effect, leave the European Union. It won’t be a nice experience and there would be other major problems to resolve - not least the impact of freedom of movement restrictions on particular sectors such as agriculture and social care, but it would be a workable start. Problem is, hard liners will have her head and Boris at no 10 if they even thought she might do it. On the plus side for her, she might get Labour onside enough to get it through. Unfortunately the single biggest thing any government has had to facilitate since the war has become a scrap in the Tory party. 

This has always been a scrap in the Tory party. 

I watched when Louis Met Anne Widdicome the other week.She said to him 'we need to stop fighting over Europe and get on with it'. It was shot  in the early noughties!

[glastolover19]

23 minutes ago, HalfAnIdiot said:

Yup. No I'm off to eat Dr Who on iPlayer :-)

Kinky. Just make sure you brush your teeth afterwards

[HalfAnIdiot]

11 minutes ago, glastolover19 said:

Kinky. Just make sure you brush your teeth afterwards

Yeah, hoped noone had noticed that!

[glastolover19]

2 minutes ago, HalfAnIdiot said:

Yeah, hoped noone had noticed that!

Shhh don't worry mate I won't tell the missus?

[clarkete]

4 hours ago, glastolover19 said:

How many do you want me to find?

Well 200 business signed a letter in February 2016 warning of the risks.

Start with that one sector  

[hfuhruhurr]

I'm hopeful that a people's vote will happen and be pro-remain - because for a lot of leavers, to quote bad boys 2 "this shit is about to get real", and that reality is being poorer. So I'll be marching on Saturday.

I've tried to engage leave voters in conversation, it usually goes along the lines of "what were your key reasons for voting leave?"
They answer, I point out either the cold hard truth of the situation, that they'd been lied to. Or, in the case of sovereignty, I ask where their logic leads them. At some point, the EU becomes "they" and the UK "us". And, that's the fundamental difference - a huge number of leave voters never considered the EU to be us. And, having a "they" it gives a lot of them a hook to hang on all their grievances. All based on emotion and nothing on cold hard facts and logic. 

[sime]

12 hours ago, HalfAnIdiot said:

I can understand the need for companies to have a HQ in the EU, it doesn't follow they will close their UK HQ. Some will though. However HQs are staffed by a relatively small number of people. The job losses will be small in a high employment economy. The threat is the slow erosion of UK influence on the world economy, this is concerning but not a certainty. It will need to be countered.

I'm not aware of any large scale move being planned that would see hundreds or thousands loose their jobs. 

Here's one for you. Panasonic. Not just planning but doing... 

 

https://www-bbc-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-45351288?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQCCAE%3D#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s

[sime]

12 hours ago, Badlands said:

Pretty wooly that, especially as it doesn't take into account undecided.  Remain have been ahead by an average of 4 points this year from the reports I've read. That still doesn't give me confidence that any further referendum would provide the same output.

Where would the country go if we vote Leave twice in a row?  Fuck that.

Not wooly in the slightest. The main poll is collated from many other polls.

A people's vote on how we leave the EU is something I hope will happen. It is so important that we have the final say on this. If a 2nd referendum were to happen separately to the People's Vote and leave won again (in light of what we all know now I doubt this would happen personally) but if they did, I would have to accept (not agree) but accept that result and then make plans to leave the country as I would no longer wish to live here. Although as we would be leaving the EU, my options on where to live would be more limited...

[Homer]

2 hours ago, hfuhruhurr said:

I'm hopeful that a people's vote will happen and be pro-remain - because for a lot of leavers, to quote bad boys 2 "this shit is about to get real", and that reality is being poorer. So I'll be marching on Saturday.

I've tried to engage leave voters in conversation, it usually goes along the lines of "what were your key reasons for voting leave?"
They answer, I point out either the cold hard truth of the situation, that they'd been lied to. Or, in the case of sovereignty, I ask where their logic leads them. At some point, the EU becomes "they" and the UK "us". And, that's the fundamental difference - a huge number of leave voters never considered the EU to be us. And, having a "they" it gives a lot of them a hook to hang on all their grievances. All based on emotion and nothing on cold hard facts and logic. 

I've had similar. Still not got anywhere with the Irish border question.

I read somewhere that the success of leave was down to the fact that it appealed to emotion, whereas remain concentrated on facts.

[slash's hat]

20 hours ago, Blisterpack said:

UK based economists (working in the finance sector and universities) voted 93% /7% to remain. That isn’t ‘divided’ in anybody’s terms. One of the problems was that the referendum was required by law to give equivalent airtime etc to ‘both sides’ of the argument which meant that the 7% - usually in the form of Patrick Minford- got to appear as if it represented a wider view than it actually did. 

Ok fair enough, was not aware of that figure, wow. Just not how I remembered it...obviously due to the reasons you gave about equivalent time.

Genuine question here, (not just to blisterpack), but it's in regard to talk of these companies leaving. This is not a new thing to have companies posturing over taking their businesses elsewhere due to government policy, and yes, above I can see some are, or at least making plans to leave and not just threatening. However do you not think some of these companies are using brexit as an excuse for something they have considered for a long time anyway? Companies have mooted cost of having a business here as significantly higher than if they were elsewhere for a long time, I will use call centre work as one example of this that has already seen a large loss of jobs.

Also, if we were to have a 2nd vote, which voted remain and we did so, do you think it would/could seriously weaken our position in the eu for future negotiations?

Edited October 15, 2018 by slash's hat